Giantaxe

There have been two periods of significant recent declines in house prices in the Bay Area, in the early to mid 90's and between around '05 and '10. Even in SF - where prices seem to defy gravity on a consistent basis - prices declined in those periods. But over the long term, real estate here has certainly been a good bet, assuming you have a relatively long time frame.

markonline1

Yep. I know renting can have its place, and other unfortunately don't have a choice, but at the end of the rental agreement, it's difficult not to think about what you've spent and what you have to show for it. Good luck with the house buying this year

N1cky

I know there are always going to be dips. We moved here in 2011, I can't help but wish we'd taken the plunge then. We could have afforded a 4 bed house then, now it's way out of our price league.

Mountain View, CA average and median listing prices - Trulia.com

Giantaxe

I'm certainly happy that I bought my SF condo in '10... but I do wonder whether the rise we've seen since then will be sustainable once interest rates start to rise.

Sally Redux

Buying is usually good over the long term. If you buy when the market's high and want to move in a period when prices are down, not so good.

Of course it's nice to own but just putting some of the downsides out there.

Giantaxe

Indeed. The place I sold in the East Bay in '05 resold in '11 for over $200k less... now it would probably sell for what it sold for in '05.

Definitely some big non-financial upsides to owning...

Steerpike

$500k is definitely going to put you in challenging territory; you aren't going to get good school districts, large space, AND easy commute for that, UNLESS perhaps you get a complete fixer-upper. I just did a Zillow search for the whole of Concord and set a range of $400k-500k, 3+ Br, Single Family homes only (no apartments, townhomes, etc). I included recent sales to get an idea of what's really sold in that range. Here's an example that is in a decent 'hood, and not too far from Bart: 3225 San Gabriel Dr, Concord. 4 bed/2ba, 1,633 sqft. Sold for $410k in Aug 2013. Current estimate $560k. I notice a LOT of the properties showing as 'for sale' in that range are foreclosure / pre-foreclosure/Auction. Example: 5255 Pebble Glen Dr, Concord. 3 bd/2.5ba, 1,614sqft. Estimate: $401k. The area is very nice, and I didn't realize but this house is only 9 minutes from CONCORD Bart (I was thinking you'd need to head down YVB to WC Bart, but you don't). Now, that 9 mins could easily be 20-30 mins during commute hours - something to verify. To play in the foreclosure/auction/short-sale space, it's best to have cash (sell what you have first?) but I do know people who finance in this space.

Here's one that is in need of work - 4555 Tuolumne Way, Concord. 4 bed/2ba, 1,709 sqft - only $485k. Looks run down but that's your opportunity . A 'street view' suggests this is the shittiest house on the road, meaning, good potential. Right opposite a hiking/riding trail. I'd say this is an acceptable 'hood. 9 minutes from Concord Bart. I'd look at this one!

Generally, you have 3 bart stations to play with in the area - at least. Concord/Pleasant Hill/Walnut Creek. Bart parking lots fill up but they did introduce paid parking so you can sometimes get a spot later in the day. If you can get flex hours at work, that helps. Fidelity (if it's the main office I'm familiar with) is right at Montgomery Station, so it couldn't be easier.

I'm out of town for the whole of Feb but back early March. I'd be happy to ferry you around a bit during the day in March. If you get any specific addresses from anyone, you could PM me and I'd be happy to give you an opinion on the area. I'm coming up on my 20th year in the area (after 12 in the city of SF).

Wow, they did well it would seem! I just did a search for houses for sale under $800k and came up empty; a look at recent sales shows several, but they all have a current estimate over $1m; which calls into question the accuracy of the estimates (Zillow is NOT to be relied upon for anything but actual sales and listings, but still - it can be a helpful guide). Would love to get an address for any one of those houses and research more! One of my all-time favorite restaurants used to be there - now gone - and I still make the trip there for 'Kabul' - a great Afghan place at the bottom of Burlingame Ave.

markonline1

^^^^once again, thanks, and that's a very kind offer that we may just end up taking you up on.

AnnieBelle

Hi Mark! I currently live in Concord well it's technically Concord but actually closer ro pleasant hill BART and I love it. I would not go any further into concord than I am though because it can get pretty dodge and it's just not a very nice town IMO. I think Lafayette and walnut creek are great choices especially walnut creek. I Am not sure how expensive it would be though for a 3 bedroom house. Walnut creek has pretty much everything you want in a town it's got a vibrant down town area with shops, restaurants and bars and it's safe with good schools. I would definitely go check it out if you can.

kevntrace

Livermore is another potential option, and is a little cheaper than Pleasanton and Dublin. Heading further east is Tracy. Probably some properties in your price range there, but it comes at the cost of driving over the Altamont Pass, which is not pleasant in rush hour.

We rented a town house in Alameda for 4 years and eventually moved out to a new build house in Dublin in 2000. We loved Alameda but there were no new builds there at the time we were looking to purchase. But we've settled really well in the tri-valley and love it here now.

Castro Valley is also worth considering. A little closer to SF than Dublin/Pleasanton. Of course the nice thing about hopping on BART at Dublin/Pleasanton for the morning commute to SF is that you can pretty much guarantee to get a seat because the train is empty before folks board. You don't get that luxury at the Castro Valley station.

Steerpike

Are you in the 'Treat Blvd' area I mentioned above? I think that's a very decent area of Concord.

I think Walnut Creek is a fantastic location, based on a combination of factors including downtown, commute, weather, etc but I think it's sadly out of the OP's range of $500k. I would wholeheartedly recommend it other than that!

To the OP - I just re-scanned the thread, and didn't see it off hand, but did I see that you own rental property in NC or SC or similar? If so, could you not consider selling that and adding to your equity for a purchase in the bay area? The bay area is one of the most expensive real estate markets in the country, so anything you can do to increase your buying power is going to help! I've seen the area go through two big market downturns in my 30+ years here, but each time it recovers. The fundamentals seem sound - the 'tech industry' here seems unstoppable (I once thought the crazy days were over, what with the 'outsourcing to India' lark, but now I see Facebook, Google, Twitter all on a tear).

markonline1

We do have a property just outside Charlotte, yes. Selling that would be a last resort though, that's part of our retirement income LOL.

AnnieBelle

Hi steerpike, yes we live on Bancroft which is off Treat. That is one of my aims in life to live in Walnut Creek, not quite there yet but we live close enough for the moment

jackattack

I lived coast side for ten years (three different locations - Santa Cruz, Half Moon Bay and then El Granada). Each time moving slightly closer to SF where I was working. We chose to buy there because we could get more house for less $ then 'over the hill' in the Burlingame/San Mateo area.

You might be able to get some kind of a house in the $500s. Maybe. We left in '13 and I haven't researched recent prices. We sold our modest house when we left in the $800s. But it wouldn't be great but the biggest problem that you'll have is schools. We had kids while living there and it's a great lifestyle but we chose to drive all the way to Palo Alto for a specific school (it was on the way to work).

markonline1

Just returned from our fact finding/ valentines trip up o the area. Was extremely useful. Had a great realtor that moved out here from Kent 25 years ago. Weirdly, she went to the same college in Twickenham that me and the wife met at 16 years ago. Small world. Anyway, she showed us some of the houses in Concord that were in our price range. We were both pretty underwhelmed. As a final viewing, she took us to Pittsburg to show us what we can get there. A lot more house basically. We looked at a great 3 bed, and have actually seen a few 4 beds in our price range. Also a BART station nearby. The realtor assured us our reservations about Pittsburg were unjustified so long as we stayed south of the freeway away from the older part of the city. Schools in Pittsburg are still a concern, but there are some charter schools in the area, and we are also looking at private education meaning the crap schools of Pittsburg wouldn't be an issue. Also spent today checking out Martinez which we both fell in love with. Has a real small town feel about it that we both loved. Again, we have seen houses in our price range, so it's looking good. I thought it would be a wrench leaving Monterey, but as beautiful as the area is, its so bloody quiet down here. Living up in the bay area with SF a short hop away on the BART is gonna be fantastic.