To dump equities or not...
#16
Re: To dump equities or not...
Therefore what to do? The Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates later this year to put something back into their toolbox. The Federal Reserve raising the target rate does not necessarily raise long term rates since the Federal Reserve's decisions only have a direct effect on short term rates and the market decides long term rates. You would think that if the US 10 year T-Bond was yielding 5%, investors from around the world would be buying them and that would force the rate back down. Why would someone purchase 10 year Italian bonds yielding 1.32% when they could buy US T-Bonds yielding 5%?
Basically I want to sell everything but I'm not looking forward to that tax bill.
#17
Re: To dump equities or not...
This assumes they would invest overseas, and that's not likely given that the ECB is undertaking quantitive easing which undermines the value of Euro bonds either further. The problem at a prime rate of zero is that money costs basically nothing, so any rise will cause a big shock to the market and that is essentially unknown territory. Even a small interest rise is going to cause an outflow into bonds.
Basically I want to sell everything but I'm not looking forward to that tax bill.
Basically I want to sell everything but I'm not looking forward to that tax bill.
If there is an outflow into bonds, that should mean that bond yields should drop further due to increased demand. It is a chicken and egg issue. The Fed raises the target interest rate (the discount rate) which could cause panic in the equity market which typically causes investors to flee the equity market and invest in the bond market which causes interest rates to drop. That is the way economics is supposed to work and if it does, holding high yield preferred shares should rise in value.
#18
Re: To dump equities or not...
I had a whole ton of Canadian bank stock, in Canada we have what are called "eligible" dividends which are not the same as qualified dividends in the US but the idea is the same - encourage people to buy Canadian stock, because you get a tax credit.
But I ditched them all because of the fall of CAD, which far outstripped any gain from holding them and now I've got a big tax bill coming looks like.
But if I now ditch all the stuff I have in USD, it will be eye-watering. But I suppose it's better to do that than lose the gain.
But I ditched them all because of the fall of CAD, which far outstripped any gain from holding them and now I've got a big tax bill coming looks like.
But if I now ditch all the stuff I have in USD, it will be eye-watering. But I suppose it's better to do that than lose the gain.