Rete

And Africans and citizens of the Middle East as the forum has seen recently. That post is what prompted the Maternity Hotel thread.

At least with the Irish, they can enter the US under the VWP and stay in the enclaves in Boston and NYC and work and prosper. They own businesses and homes and the Catholic Church shelters them. They need only marry an American and file for adjustment of status and not wait to have children with perhaps another overstayed alien and that child to reach 21 to sponsor them.

Many Latin Americans are in the US without inspection and will never have the opportunity to benefit from their US Citizen children's sponsorship unless the immigration law changes to allow them to adjust status while they remain in the US. Without inspection, they can't do that and must leave the US in order to be petitioned and that will invoke a ban.

Steve_

The answer is, sit back and await death because unless the law changes in your favour you're almost certainly never getting an immigrant visa this way. It's worth applying to get your foot in the door but that's about it.

I keep seeing people quoting the visa bulletin and someone just quoted it in this thread - it says specifically in the visa bulletin instructions that you can't work out when you'll get a visa based on measuring the time between the date in the bulletin and today's date. The two are completely unrelated. The numbers move forward based on the quota and the quota is absolutely gigantically oversubscribed.

Someone asked on here before about it, and USCIS stopped processing petitions as of May 2011, so based on that date and the NVC processing statistics they publish annually (not the visa bulletin) I worked out that if every person sponsored actually applied and you're not from a per country limited country, you would get a visa around November 2041. It would be a bit quicker obviously because some applicants will have died by then.

But in the CRS report on it the number of pending petitions jumps exponentially (the graph goes up at a sharp angle) after that so if you applied after about 2012 you'd almost certainly be dead of old age by the time a visa number became available.

My personal view is the only way USCIS will even process the petition and hand it over to the NVC is if you go to federal court and apply for a Writ of Mandamus.

This whole thing on the news about it is meaningless, we'd all be dead of old age by the time they processed all the pending petitions if they grandfather them. Even third preference this is likely the case.

scrubbedexpat099

Well certainly need CIR, but I can see many Politicians resisting even as you say many of those waiting are likely to die first. Certainly been that case for MExico for some time.

A writ just forces a decision, may not be the one you want.

Steve_

Well I'm pretty sure USCIS would process it, if you've been waiting years a Writ of Mandamus would almost certainly be granted, but it doesn't gain you anything really it just means you're dealing with the NVC instead. I suppose if Congress says only the petitions that have already been processed are going to get visas eventually, then it might be worth doing it.

I'm just getting really tired of supposed immigration lawyers on the TV saying that people would be waiting X years based on the visa bulletin. You cannot know from the bulletin how many years you will be waiting, it doesn't contain enough information to work that out. Only the NVC statistical report gives you that and even then you can only work it out to 2011, because USCIS doesn't tell you how many unprocessed I-130s they're sitting on. The only reference I could find was that alarming graph in the CRS report.

scrubbedexpat099

USCIS Green Card Calculator - Calculate Priority Date And GC Predictions

Have not looked at their Methodology but they are estimating 31 years for RoW with a recent priority date.

Pulaski

If a green card was on offer, they'd sneak back out the same way they sneaked in, or worst case scenario, go over the border into Canada and fly back to Mexico.

excpomea

My Uncle is Bradenton sponsored his brother back in 2006.
Just received notice that his Green card will be approved and he will be free to move to the States in the next few months.
That was a long 11 years.
This is from the UK

Noorah101

Immigrant visa.

Rene