BritInParis

Agreed that 'Hispanic' or 'Latino' vote doesn't exist as a voting bloc. A Cuban emigre living in Florida is far more likely to vote Republican than a Mexican emigre living in California.

scrubbedexpat099

I obviously can not talk for the Democrats's but assume they are expecting a higher conversion rate for DACA recipients than the average and would also be taking into account the longer term, with their families added into the equation.

carcajou

Maybe - but that would be mistaken as historically it hasn't happened, and my 115,000 net gain is probably too optimistic. First-generation voters historically have turned out at a lower rate than the national average; by the time that smooths out in the second, third and later generations, they vote with whatever are the prevailing political winds and trends at the time. Maybe that will benefit Democrats, maybe not, nobody can say for sure and it would be a real throw of the dice and absolutely foolish to make, or oppose, a policy decision based on that.

Very few of the DACAs are going to be political junkies who wish someone would make a set of baseball cards featuring congressmen, any more than the rest of the public. On the list of priorities for why they want to stay in the country, "so I can vote for Democrats on election day" is not going to be on there.

The net effect on presidential elections is going to be miniscule, and at lower levels, totally unpredictable . . . and I think more than a few progressive (and conservative) activists are going to be surprised at how the religious backgrounds and social conservatism of the countries many of the DACAs come from, will interact negatively with many progressive social causes. That is not a mystery, but few have been paying attention until now.

It would be very unwise decision making to base support or opposition to this on trying to read electoral tea-leaves for thirty years from now.

Steve_

The point isn't whether it is possible, it's how the Republicans perceive it. The southwest and Florida are the most popular places for these people to live, enough to turn Arizona and Florida into blue States. That's what they're scared of. And Nevada from a swing State into a blue State as well.

The fact that so many people have been on TPS for so long is just an indication of political paralysis, because it clearly isn't sensible to send 200,000 Salvadoreans back to El Salvador, that's in no-one's interest. It will destabilize the country and apparently they've got about 200,000 US citizen children as well.

I agree that they should never have been on TPS for as long as they were but that was a decision taken by Bush and Obama, just kick the can down the road in some vague hope of immigration reform.

scrubbedexpat099

Sounds like we are now getting immigration reform.

Steve_

It's not about Texas and it's not purely about Presidential elections either, the Texas congressional map is heavily gerrymandered. Florida and Arizona are the ones they're worried about. If those two States generally went Democratic they would have a tough time getting the votes in the Senate or winning the Presidency.

Personally I think it's silly anyway because I can't see all the Puerto Ricans who've moved to Florida recently voting Republican anyway.

If they had any sense they'd be bending over backwards to rebuild Puerto Rico.

Steve_

The Republican house bill is a joke and won't go anywhere. Whatever this is isn't going to be some major degree of reform, it's going to be fiddling around the edges. The real sticking point is whether people on DACA can get citizenship, because the Democrats don't want to end sponsorship of parents and that's why the Republicans don't want people on DACA to get citizenship.

My bet in the end is it will be some sort of conditional permanent residency and the only way to get citizenship will be to qualify for it through the regular immigration system.

carcajou

I think you are looking at this with too much tunnel vision. They don't care about a few hundred thousand DACA voters, none of whom are guaranteed to vote Democratic - and voter participation in down-ballot races is far less than at the Presidential level. The politicians know this very well and aren't making any decisions on the basis of trying to predict what these people will do as voters in 20 years.

Moreover theoretical DACA voters are not the only people potentially being added to the Florida and Arizona rolls. "Reagan Democrats" from the Northeast and Upper Midwest who never went back to the Democrats are retiring and keep moving down in droves.

The electoral patterns in Florida and Arizona haven't changed much in a generation, except there are fewer Democrats in higher office in both now (despite both states being more Hispanic now, than then). A generation ago at least Arizona had Dennis DeConcini and Janet Napolitano, and Florida had Lawton Chiles and Bob Graham.

Florida remains what it was 25 years ago - a 50/50 state that tips whatever way the national wind is blowing. Arizona remains what it was 25 years ago - a state that's winnable when there is a Strong Democrat / Weak Republican combination, like in 1996.

Legalising a million or so Dreamers isn't going to change any of that, at any electoral level.

Steve_

Yes it will, as I said directly above in #22, because it's not just about them, if they get citizenship they can sponsor in their parents and that's millions more and that will change the outcome of elections in Arizona, Nevada and Florida. And it wouldn't be 20 years down the road necessarily either.

This is the main reason the Republicans oppose it, you only have to read the legislation they've introduced which makes parents of US citizens a non-immigrant category that has to be renewed every 5 years.

Republicans moving down from the midwest and northeast isn't going to make any difference given that NY, NJ, IL and various other States usually go Democratic in statewide elections and Ohio for example is a swing State.

carcajou

The parents will be even less inclined to vote than the kids.

If these are such guaranteed Democratic votes, why haven't the Democrats been more successful in Florida and Arizona?

To the extent that this is about voters at all, it is about existing voters, and the Republicans not wanting to tick off the social-conservative crazies in their base who might primary them, and the Democrats not wanting to tick off their base in Silicon Valley who can fund a primary challenge to them. Neither side gives a hoot about Dreamers themselves, nor are they engaging in a senseless game of trying to predict an Arizona House race a decade from now.

Octang Frye

All I know is I'm getting furloughed on Monday. Thanks Democrats.

Giantaxe

DACA is only an issue because Trump chose to make it a bargaining chip for his stupid wall. I also see a few republican senators are purportedly voting against this deal.

scrubbedexpat099

Hopefully everybody here has contacted the Senator and told them to pass the bill.

Octang Frye

"But Trump..."

Please, give it a rest.

Giantaxe

Please, tell me why my comment is inaccurate...