Rotor

Psst , she`s not very bright

scrubbedexpat142

So after UK leaves the EU 43% of the 27 will speak English (& 30% will speak German) - that's plenty of interoperability. Consider also the demograph / professions of those who speak English as a common language. In mine, for example the rate of English speaking is 100 % (in an organisation that comprised the EU 28 + 16 other nearby States).

carcajou

Can you tell me how you got your 30% for German - minus the native speakers that I alluded to in my post, in my figures I got 42% for English (basically same as you) but only 10% for German once you subtract Germany and Austria.

I concede that English is the lingua franca of the European Union but I would contest that there is operability with German when only 10% of the population outside Germany and Austria can speak the language.

I would also say that having 58% not speak English is also very problematic for operability, but perhaps somewhat workable in some fields.

But I think this strengthens what I wrote, not weakens it.

scrubbedexpat142

In the context of UK leaving the EU but Germany / Austria remaining. As you say the interoperability stems from the use of English - which is why more & more young Europeans are learning English.

scrubbedexpat142

Where I did slip up is by deducting 65M for the UK. Given the continental Europeans in Britain I should probably have deducted 62M!

carcajou

Yes, they are, which is why the UK leaving is so damaging to the European Project. The young Italians I know aspire to live in London, not Frankfurt.

But my point was the interoperability between various populations - if there is only 10% who speak German in 25 of the 27 other countries, then it doesn't work.

Without the UK as part of Free Movement the entire project I believe becomes even more of a paper benefit than it already was.

Loafing Along

Having listened to Barnier & Co the prefered language seems to be French

scrubbedexpat142

Yes it does, because of the use of English.

scrubbedexpat142

The language of diplomacy used to be French.

Loafing Along

Yes - even the Russians speak it

scrubbedexpat142

VW have directed their senior staff to speak English.

carcajou

Ha!

I was referring to "native speaking populations" and so when calculating English, 5 million extra people need to be deducted to account for Ireland.

So, 508 million EU citizens x 51% = 259 million English speakers.

259 million English speakers - subtract 66 million = 193 million English speakers in the EU after Brexit.

Subtract another 5 million for Ireland = 188 million.

Divide 188 million by 442 million [post-Brexit EU population] = 42.53%

So, let's just round up to 43% and you are correct.

So, 43% of the post-Brexit EU population outside the native-speaking countries will speak English, compared to 10% for German.

carcajou

But 57% won't speak it!

Besides - my original point was that Free Movement doesn't benefit the vast majority of EU Citizens unless they have language skills to a near-native level. With the UK out of Free Movement, that issue becomes seriously, seriously accentuated.

Pulaski

The population of Germany is about 82 million, and even if you allow for some immigrants who don't speak German, how can, say 70/440 be 10%, it is about 16%, or was 10% a typo?

scrubbedexpat142

Why are you subtracting Ireland, still part of the EU - we are assessing proportions pre & post Brexit. Similarly how does taking the UK out reduce your figure for German from 27% down to 10%? German speaking percentage will rise post Brexit.