GB pound weakening
Feb 28th 2009, 4:42 pm
#361
BE Forum Addict
Thread Starter
Joined: Jan 2008
Location: The Charente - still smiling.
Posts: 2,624
Re: GB pound weakening
Gordon and the Moron, Royal Bank of Scotland, Bank of Scotland.......
I am not sure the world can afford any MORE dour Scots.
Forgot the Smiley. Sorry
Last edited by bigglesworth; Feb 28th 2009 at 4:51 pm. Reason: as above
Feb 28th 2009, 4:51 pm
#362
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Nov 2003
Location: Chiclana
Posts: 3,327
Re: GB pound weakening
The peak in economic inactivity in the 1990s was about 16.7 million people out of a population of about 57.8 million. About 28.9 percent.
In November 2008 there were already 17.9 million economically inactive, out of a population of 60.9 million About 29.4 percent.
And you can certainly add another couple of hundred thousand at least to that already. Forecasts are another million by the end of this year, and possibly a further million by the end of 2012.
Repossessions have only just started. Many are hidden by title transfers to HAs and local authorities. We all hope that this is the highpoint, but realistically, they are bound to rise with unemployment.
Interest rates 15 percent on exit from ERM, but base rate averaged about 6/7 percent during the 1990s. Entirely consistent with a sustainable rate of growth. 2-3 percent beneficial rate of inflation, plus 2 to 3 percent for annual productivity growth plus a (little) extra to cover inaccuracies.
There is no doubt that it was Gordon's decision to keep interest rates down and inflate the money supply to finance his spending splurge that led to the enormous increase in public and private sector debt that is currently crucifying sterling and all those who are dependent on sterling incomes.
I do hope you are as sanguine at the end of this recession as you are at the beginning- or depression as Gordon prefers to call it.
In November 2008 there were already 17.9 million economically inactive, out of a population of 60.9 million About 29.4 percent.
And you can certainly add another couple of hundred thousand at least to that already. Forecasts are another million by the end of this year, and possibly a further million by the end of 2012.
Repossessions have only just started. Many are hidden by title transfers to HAs and local authorities. We all hope that this is the highpoint, but realistically, they are bound to rise with unemployment.
Interest rates 15 percent on exit from ERM, but base rate averaged about 6/7 percent during the 1990s. Entirely consistent with a sustainable rate of growth. 2-3 percent beneficial rate of inflation, plus 2 to 3 percent for annual productivity growth plus a (little) extra to cover inaccuracies.
There is no doubt that it was Gordon's decision to keep interest rates down and inflate the money supply to finance his spending splurge that led to the enormous increase in public and private sector debt that is currently crucifying sterling and all those who are dependent on sterling incomes.
I do hope you are as sanguine at the end of this recession as you are at the beginning- or depression as Gordon prefers to call it.
Feb 28th 2009, 5:07 pm
#363
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 446
Re: GB pound weakening
Did you live with a mortgage that was 15%? We did as did many others. At least people have a chance of paying their mortgages with interest rates so low in the UK. As for the matter of crucifying sterling. This is to help the economy in the UK not to make matters better for those of us ex-pats of which I am one. Yes we are suffering massively with the low pound but at least understand the reasons behind it and realise that it is for the benefit of the UK not to look after us ex-pats. As for being sanguine - pleaseeeeeeeee.
Feb 28th 2009, 5:40 pm
#364
BE Forum Addict
Thread Starter
Joined: Jan 2008
Location: The Charente - still smiling.
Posts: 2,624
Re: GB pound weakening
Yes I did have a mortgage. Actually, I also had one when when Uncle Jim and his pals bankrupted Britain the last time. 17 percent base rate, mortgages that made your eyes water. Massive unemployment and riots on the streets. 6 or 7 years of misery for the entire country before there was any improvement.
But that was then and this is now.
As I said, wait for the end of this rather than the beginning. See if you feel the same then.
But that was then and this is now.
As I said, wait for the end of this rather than the beginning. See if you feel the same then.
Mar 3rd 2009, 1:15 pm
#365
Not Banned (yet)
Joined: Aug 2008
Location: Madrid
Posts: 6,400
Re: GB pound weakening
I'm one of those who thinks that "Sunny Jim" and Denis Healy really didn't do too badly in the 70s. They inherited an absolute corker of a timebomb left by Barber's boom. However as mentioned, that was then, and this is now. According to this, "quantitative easing" in large numbers could well start this week:
times article
I hope I'm wrong, but we could well see a 20% slump in the pound at the end of this week. All those wondering whether to change their pounds now have to weigh up what's more likely - a slump or a recovery in the value of the pound. As I say, I hope I'm wrong.
times article
I hope I'm wrong, but we could well see a 20% slump in the pound at the end of this week. All those wondering whether to change their pounds now have to weigh up what's more likely - a slump or a recovery in the value of the pound. As I say, I hope I'm wrong.
Mar 3rd 2009, 1:42 pm
#366
Not Banned (yet)
Joined: Aug 2008
Location: Madrid
Posts: 6,400
Re: GB pound weakening
They're even reporting the UK machine for printing money in the Spanish press:
el pais article
Don't Panic!!!
el pais article
Don't Panic!!!
Mar 3rd 2009, 4:46 pm
#367
BE Forum Addict
Thread Starter
Joined: Jan 2008
Location: The Charente - still smiling.
Posts: 2,624
Re: GB pound weakening
I may be wrong, but I think the markets have factored in QE, so in itself it may have little immediate effect. (That is not to say I am blind to the very real inflationary, even hyper- inflationary, risks in the medium to long term.)
What IMO is really doing the damage is these continual re-announcements of how terrible the situation is without any explanation as to how the government plans to deal with it. (Nor, I hasten to add, do the opposition parties seem to have a clue - lots of "I wouldn't do that" without any real plan).
So if Merv simply announces that he is going to buy in corporate (or Government) bonds, without detailing broadly how he will dispose of them later, then all the market is going to hear is those printing presses running.
And if Gordon doesn't also explain how he is going to bring public spending back under control, then even if Merv does announce a strategy, the markets are unlikely to believe him.
And then watch sterling go down the toilet!
What IMO is really doing the damage is these continual re-announcements of how terrible the situation is without any explanation as to how the government plans to deal with it. (Nor, I hasten to add, do the opposition parties seem to have a clue - lots of "I wouldn't do that" without any real plan).
So if Merv simply announces that he is going to buy in corporate (or Government) bonds, without detailing broadly how he will dispose of them later, then all the market is going to hear is those printing presses running.
And if Gordon doesn't also explain how he is going to bring public spending back under control, then even if Merv does announce a strategy, the markets are unlikely to believe him.
And then watch sterling go down the toilet!
Mar 4th 2009, 12:54 pm
#368
BE Forum Addict
Thread Starter
Joined: Jan 2008
Location: The Charente - still smiling.
Posts: 2,624
Re: GB pound weakening
Purchasing Managers Index stronger than expected, consumer confidence also stronger. House price enquiries increasing - lots of better than expected news. So just wait for the Government to knock sterling again if they can.
BUT
Simon Heffer often (IMO) inclined to intemperacy (if there is such a word) but this really could be the beginning of the end-game.....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/c...ng-to-win.html
BUT
Simon Heffer often (IMO) inclined to intemperacy (if there is such a word) but this really could be the beginning of the end-game.....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/c...ng-to-win.html
Mar 4th 2009, 9:30 pm
#369
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Apr 2006
Location: Manchester
Posts: 309
Re: GB pound weakening
NO NO NO! Sterling weaking has got nothing to do with hedge funds, back to back zeros, forwards or the friday trading of war funds which is always a good long term fall back investment, the real issue that affects sterling is the strength of three currencies that are used for transfers of the corporate trading banks for central Europe, not the High street ones! In a normal trading market Asia, Americas and central Europe use money forward and gurantee spots that allow the banking machine to shift and buy at the most favourable options, thats why they employ acturies and fund managers to calculate optimum shifts of money even in bad times. Money losses of banks are more geared to financial products and services offered good or bad! As opposed to the elements of actual sterling / hard cash money being shifted! Are you with me?
Mar 5th 2009, 11:46 am
#370
Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,433
Re: GB pound weakening
I think you have upset the new chairman of RBS
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/f...3/intraday.stm
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...n-economy.html
Last edited by poshnbucks; May 30th 2009 at 5:38 am.
Mar 5th 2009, 12:36 pm
#371
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Nov 2005
Location: In your nightmares.
Posts: 834
Re: GB pound weakening
NO NO NO! Sterling weaking has got nothing to do with hedge funds, back to back zeros, forwards or the friday trading of war funds which is always a good long term fall back investment, the real issue that affects sterling is the strength of three currencies that are used for transfers of the corporate trading banks for central Europe, not the High street ones! In a normal trading market Asia, Americas and central Europe use money forward and gurantee spots that allow the banking machine to shift and buy at the most favourable options, thats why they employ acturies and fund managers to calculate optimum shifts of money even in bad times. Money losses of banks are more geared to financial products and services offered good or bad! As opposed to the elements of actual sterling / hard cash money being shifted! Are you with me?
that Stg entry level was to high.
That was the Soros HEDGE fund .
Most high street banks are Investment Banks as well.
Icelands economy/currency was ruined because their High street Banks decided to expand overseas unwisely as it turns out.So the currency movement was directly as a result of looses incurred by those Banks
So they all linked.Currencies move up and down on economic fundementals,political shifts,war etc etc.
Mar 5th 2009, 1:56 pm
#372
Banned
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 1,030
Re: GB pound weakening
we know what the problem is , People are not spending money like there where befor .... there afriad off losting there jobs and not have cash to pay the banks back .... the bank wont even give overdrafts to small companys and this companyes go busted (less Cash) ..... think off it... where you spending more this time last year ? have you start to count the coppers ?
Mar 5th 2009, 10:02 pm
#373
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Apr 2006
Location: Manchester
Posts: 309
Re: GB pound weakening
I think you will find that last time Sterling took a bath was when George Soros dumped it and forced UK out of ERM becuase he thought quite rightly
that Stg entry level was to high.
That was the Soros HEDGE fund .
Most high street banks are Investment Banks as well.
Icelands economy/currency was ruined because their High street Banks decided to expand overseas unwisely as it turns out.So the currency movement was directly as a result of looses incurred by those Banks
So they all linked.Currencies move up and down on economic fundementals,political shifts,war etc etc.
that Stg entry level was to high.
That was the Soros HEDGE fund .
Most high street banks are Investment Banks as well.
Icelands economy/currency was ruined because their High street Banks decided to expand overseas unwisely as it turns out.So the currency movement was directly as a result of looses incurred by those Banks
So they all linked.Currencies move up and down on economic fundementals,political shifts,war etc etc.
Last edited by vox populia; Mar 5th 2009 at 10:15 pm.
Mar 6th 2009, 12:09 am
#374
Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,433
Re: GB pound weakening
Barrow boys let battle commence. 
Last edited by poshnbucks; May 30th 2009 at 5:38 am.
Mar 6th 2009, 6:07 am
#375
RETIRED ;-))
Joined: Jul 2003
Location: Benalmadena Pueblo,Spain
Posts: 20,156
Re: GB pound weakening
No apololgies Shirley/Anthony ur talking crap firstly the Soros hedge fund you refer to is a poor example due to actual date of authorised trading for the investment u r refering to , check it out! The street banks u refer to do investments however i mentioned corporate trading which is very much different. PM me and i wil comprehensively explain. By the way client investors that are sought by banks, supermarkets, media adverts, mailshots and the like are only a pettince in terms of the war chest investments that good Finanicial institutions deal in a hourly basis!