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Old Aug 11th 2017, 1:52 pm   #1
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Default Euro pound parity

I read that Morgan Stanley predicts euro parity with pound for 2018.
Good news eh?
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Old Aug 11th 2017, 2:06 pm   #2
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Default Re: Euro pound parity

We have been there before so no surprises. It was obvious it would fall once negotiations got started and got difficult. Trouble of course is how long it takes to meaningfully recover?
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Old Aug 11th 2017, 2:25 pm   #3
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Default Re: Euro pound parity

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Originally Posted by bobd22 View Post
We have been there before so no surprises. It was obvious it would fall once negotiations got started and got difficult. Trouble of course is how long it takes to meaningfully recover?
Yes, no real surprise to me as it's been on the slide since the Brexit vote. Just a depressing prospect.
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Old Aug 11th 2017, 2:38 pm   #4
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Default Re: Euro pound parity

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Originally Posted by bobd22 View Post
.... Trouble of course is how long it takes to meaningfully recover?
I am not sure that it will
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Old Aug 11th 2017, 2:44 pm   #5
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Default Re: Euro pound parity

The attached graphic actually shows that the GBP was in steady and prolonged decline against the Euro long before the brexit vote - in fact since the previous summer.
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Old Aug 11th 2017, 2:49 pm   #6
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Default Re: Euro pound parity

Many minor currencies are "pegged" to major currencies. The Panamanian Balboa is pegged to the US dollar, for example (1:1).

No reason why Sterling shouldn't peg to the Euro (except that those pesky foreigners use it).
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Old Aug 11th 2017, 4:58 pm   #7
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Default Re: Euro pound parity

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Originally Posted by KieronF View Post
The attached graphic actually shows that the GBP was in steady and prolonged decline against the Euro long before the brexit vote - in fact since the previous summer.
Yes that's true but since it crashed to near parity 2009 ish it had recovered substantially. That graph yes shows declining since 2016 but that takes in the preparation for Brexit referendum so uncertainty began.Of course it will fluctuate but 2 big things for £ is Brexit and worry re Trump making Euro stronger than it probably should be. Reality without Trump no doubt the £ would be much lower against the dollar and my guess is euro would not be so strong. UK would of course suffer even more with stronger dollar with cost of oil/fuel. Brexiteers would say well it goes up and down anyway yes it does but not so extremely. I think we could be in for a long slog of low rates re euro.
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Old Aug 11th 2017, 5:19 pm   #8
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Default Re: Euro pound parity

The euro isn't "strong". The pound is just weak. It's all relative.

The euro has declined against the dollar for years. I remember when it was nearly $1.40 to the dollar.
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Old Aug 11th 2017, 5:19 pm   #9
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Default Re: Euro pound parity

Excellent time to sell in Europe and move to £s
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Old Aug 11th 2017, 5:28 pm   #10
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Default Re: Euro pound parity

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Originally Posted by amideislas View Post
The euro isn't "strong". The pound is just weak. It's all relative.

The euro has declined against the dollar for years. I remember when it was nearly $1.40 to the dollar.
Of course it changes pound has been 1.60. All the experts must be wrong then when they say that the Euro is stronger because of concerns re USA etc. As I said reality is £ should currently be lower against the dollar which would be even worse for UK. But between dollar sterling and euro then euro is simply safer bet.

Last edited by bobd22; Aug 11th 2017 at 5:36 pm.
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Old Aug 11th 2017, 5:31 pm   #11
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Default Re: Euro pound parity

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Originally Posted by Fredbargate View Post
Excellent time to sell in Europe and move to £s
Every cloud and all that not so good though if you need euros which I imagine many will to live on
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Old Aug 11th 2017, 10:32 pm   #12
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Default Re: Euro pound parity

Quote:
Originally Posted by bobd22 View Post
Of course it changes pound has been 1.60. All the experts must be wrong then when they say that the Euro is stronger because of concerns re USA etc. As I said reality is £ should currently be lower against the dollar which would be even worse for UK. But between dollar sterling and euro then euro is simply safer bet.
Again, it's all relative. Yes, the dollar took a recent hit due to the political situation, which makes the euro "stronger" (by comparison). Also makes the pound look stronger ... by comparison.

Since the referendum, the value of the pound has taken sa hit, which makes the euro look "stronger"... by comparison. But over the long haul, the euro hasn't really gained at all when compared to all major currencies. In fact, it's weakened quite a bit since 2001.
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Old Aug 12th 2017, 12:18 am   #13
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Default Re: Euro pound parity

Come on , we should celebrate this, as this is what the majority voted for.
We were told this would happen, and it has, cant see a problem?
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Old Aug 12th 2017, 3:48 am   #14
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Default Re: Euro pound parity

Well, they said the weakness in the pound would boost exports, but they're falling again. And with that, the exodus of global firms (employers), as the addressable market shrinks from 440 million to 60 mil. It's not pretty.

To complicate matters, the pound is expected to tank further, as is the subject of this thread.

But yes, you're right. It's what Britain voted for. It's gonna be great.
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Last edited by amideislas; Aug 12th 2017 at 3:51 am.
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Old Aug 12th 2017, 9:37 am   #15
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Default Re: Euro pound parity

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Originally Posted by bobd22 View Post
Every cloud and all that not so good though if you need euros which I imagine many will to live on
Apart from Brits retired abroad there are people working in sterling countries who support families using other currencies who are similarly affected.
But for those that work in non sterling areas and have obligations in sterling areas this is a bonus.

Swings and roundabouts
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