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Old May 15th 2012, 10:35 am   #31
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Default Re: EURO

Current thinking seems to be that if Greece goes bottom up and Spain follows (two quite big if's!) then Spain will revert back to pesetas and these will be worth about 200-210 to the Euro - ie a devaluation of about 30%. Greece would probably devalue by about 50%.
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Old May 15th 2012, 11:23 am   #32
 
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Default Re: EURO

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Originally Posted by bigglesworth View Post
Mr Mckenna. It all depends where you plan to spend that money. If you are living in Spain, then your expenses are in Spain. You therefore need Spanish money (Euros at the moment).
IF Greece leaves the Euro, the Euro will still exist, just that Greece will revert to new drachmas or whatever. No real impact on someone in Spain, except insofar as the value of the Euro may change - in either direction - after all the weakest member of the Euro would have left.
I don't think anyone should underestimate the determination amongst the political classes of Europe to keep the Euro going. So the exit of Greece will not lead automatically to the disintegration of the Euro. This will in my opinion still happen, but not for some time yet.
If and when the Euro does disintegrate, people with Euros will not lose everything. The banks will close for a period of time. The Government of each affected country will decide on a conversion rate for Euros to the new currency, and then your funds will be revalued as Novas pesetas or whatever. You may profit or lose from that, no one can tell.
I think you need to analyse what your risk is. If you are British with a British income living in Spain, then you have been taking the currency risk all along. Now you are taking the other side of that risk.

I hope that helps.
I think that if (but really believe it will be when - in the next couple of weeks) Greece withdraws from the Euro that all the others will cling together and try to make it work with the most unstable element out of the way.

I keep hearing here about the state Spain is in,
probably just knocking because it is the British thing to do
but Italy and Portugal are in a very poor state as well, Ireland not much better (and remember only a couple of years ago they were the Celtic Tiger, bettering the best of the best.)

This is a time for careful reflection, and as i say, a time for trying to make it work. It was being said before Christmas that Greece was leaving the Eurozone - but they are still there.
Greece has been living on past glories for centuries and despite warnings in the WWII period still havent become part of the rest of society.
Spain has had the wakeup call, is listening and trying to do something about it after a Govt that tried to spend its way out and failed

For those who remember Black Wednesday and the way the £ was forced out of the EMU, that was a wakeup call which has never been forgotten in Threadneedle Street - which is why the UK/£ have always stood alone.
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Old May 15th 2012, 12:56 pm   #33
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Default Re: EURO

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Originally Posted by MrMckenna View Post
What about putting it into a German bank account ? They will be the very last to go wouldn't they ? Suppose it don't really matter though because if the euro collapses it collapses its a nightmare this is really why didn't they just leave things alone in the first place instead of trying to fix something that wernt broken in the first place. We would all be much happier people if we was still spending pesetas!!
Germany is a Eurozone member. They use the Euro. A Euro is a Euro . If the Euro tanks, it tanks. Having it in "German" Euros or "Spanish" Euros won't make any difference. It's the same currency

This is the entire problem with the Euro, by the way, it may be suitably valued for the German economy, but far from suitable for the Spanish, Italian, Portuguese, Greek, or Irish economy.
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Old May 15th 2012, 12:59 pm   #34
 
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Default Re: EURO

Quote:
Originally Posted by rspltd View Post
Current thinking seems to be that if Greece goes bottom up and Spain follows (two quite big if's!) then Spain will revert back to pesetas and these will be worth about 200-210 to the Euro - ie a devaluation of about 30%. Greece would probably devalue by about 50%.
No problems, cash them out in Germany or France
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Old May 15th 2012, 1:07 pm   #35
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Default Re: EURO

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Originally Posted by Domino View Post

I keep hearing here about the state Spain is in,
probably just knocking because it is the British thing to do
but Italy and Portugal are in a very poor state as well, Ireland not much better (and remember only a couple of years ago they were the Celtic Tiger, bettering the best of the best.)

Hardly a British thing is it, Spain is in the news all over the world


http://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/2...sing-hangover/

Also if Greece defaults, France is heavily exposed. It goes on and on.
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Old May 15th 2012, 1:31 pm   #36
 
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Default Re: EURO

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Originally Posted by jackytoo View Post
Hardly a British thing is it, Spain is in the news all over the world


http://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/2...sing-hangover/

Also if Greece defaults, France is heavily exposed. It goes on and on.
and when did we last here anything about - or even from - the Netherlands, Belgium, Malta, etc - there are actually 17 countries who are part of the Eurozone so they are all part of the Euro problem.

is it because they are also out of their depth that the UK is being asked to pass a couple of £billion or so to keep the ECB afloat, when it is the one that is responsible for enforcing the rules within the Eurozone. hence the at No 10 and Threadneedle St, as any money will immediately be passed on to defaulting Eurozone members like soup and bread at the night kitchen.
it won't solve the problem but will make someone feel warm and wanted for an hour or so.

considering how much has been pumped into the Eurozone by its only real benefactor - the UK - how much of Europe do we now "own".? ?

.
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Old May 15th 2012, 1:39 pm   #37
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Default Re: EURO

Quote:
Originally Posted by MrMckenna View Post
On a serious note.... Im really starting to panic about this now, is anybody else or am I over reacting ? I have quite a lot of money changed into euro's it's shot upto 1.25 today and iv looked into changing it back into sterling and I'm going to lose a fortune. Just don't know what to do.
There is absolutely nothing to worry about. It's merely media panic.

Even in the event of the euro not existing anymore, it's of no worry to the man on the street. We simply change over to a new currency and carry on as normal.

The relationship of the new currency to other currencies already in existence is only of concern to people to want to buy the other currencies. In other words, not very many Spanish!!

In any case, 100000 euros per financial institution is gauranteed by the government.

People worry toomuch about issues that are beyond their control. Sit back and watch the panic unfold.

Most importantly, a solution is always found.
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Old May 15th 2012, 1:45 pm   #38
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Default Re: EURO

If a country withdraws from the euro and defaults then they cannot borrow any money as no-one will buy their bonds. This leads to shortages, hospitals running out of drugs, equipment etc. Buying goods for industry too.

I wonder who would bail out the UK and hand over 15 billion to it like the UK keeps doling out 15 billion to top up the leaking euro pot
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Old May 15th 2012, 1:51 pm   #39
 
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Default Re: EURO

technically no country can leave the eurozone, it isnt allowed within the rules of joining.

however, they are supposed to keep within certain other parameters - but when both France and Germany break those rules then how can you expect everyone else to do so.

that is why it is all in a mess. there is no control from the ECB, no idea what to do other than ask Germany to pass the hat round to anyone who may be able to donate.

but what can you expect when the EU's general accounts have not been passed by audit for 14 years.
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Old May 15th 2012, 3:01 pm   #40
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Default Re: EURO

Quote:
Mr Mckenna. It all depends where you plan to spend that money. If you are living in Spain, then your expenses are in Spain. You therefore need Spanish money (Euros at the moment).
IF Greece leaves the Euro, the Euro will still exist, just that Greece will revert to new drachmas or whatever. No real impact on someone in Spain, except insofar as the value of the Euro may change - in either direction - after all the weakest member of the Euro would have left.
Why are you all worrying ? .... simply because you are British, that's why, with our unique floating currency ! What about all the other EU folks in Spain ... your neighbours, the Germans & the like .... are they worrying ? I'd say not, simply because they are all tied together, sink or swim, with the Euro. They don't see 'fluctuations' between member states, because they don't exist. To a German living in spain the only thing in the papers bothering him is how such as Greece (and hopefully, he thinks, not spain or italy) are dragging his motherland down. In his mind, and he is dead right, he just wants shut of such a parasitical lot who have joined the EU under false pretences. Lying Toads who in the end, he may think, will affect my pension and my kids jobs back home.
---
So it'll be just Brits-in-Spain lathering themselves up into a cold sweat .... simply, and ironically, because we never joined the Euro monetary grouping in the first place. Why did we not join ..? Was it just sheer luck we didn't ? Well yes, to a point .... but, thankfully, there was a groundswell of far-seeing rationalising opinion against our joining. Despite Thatcher et al waving the flag for Britain, that we'd out-compete the Germans etc; we did a reality check and we realised that we would never be competitive enough in the EU and we would end up being a liability to both ourselves and the rest of the members - just like Greece is now !
---
SO ... OUT WITH GREECE ...! ought to be your neighbouring non-brit expats' cry ! They, the Germans et al, looking at us Brits, and the fact that we only survive because our currency can fluctuate vis-à-vis the Euro, can rightly extrapolate from that a pragmatic solution. That being that once Greece has been kicked out, and left to stand on it's own for a couple of years, it will again become a tourist and investment magnet due to a repeat of it's onetime advantageous exchange rate (thinking here of the '60, & 70's etc). Is there a usefull corrollary in there somewhere ?... well for sure there is. Just as you are worrying about your euros diminishing against the 130, say, exchange rate .... there'll be an old spaniard near you fairly rubbing his hands ! Thinking of the 260 pesetas to the £ exchange rates of long ago that brought the thronging Brits to spanish shores in the first place .... in his cups he will be wishing two things into existance - one, that there were more countries in the EU with floating currencies like the UK; and, two, that, following the Greek example of renaissance, that spain should go the same way too !
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Old May 15th 2012, 3:05 pm   #41
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Default Re: EURO

Quote:
Originally Posted by avocados View Post
Even in the event of the euro not existing anymore, it's of no worry to the man on the street. We simply change over to a new currency and carry on as normal.

The relationship of the new currency to other currencies already in existence is only of concern to people to want to buy the other currencies. In other words, not very many Spanish!!
That relationship affects the cost of imports and and exports which do affect the man in the street and if someone leaves the euro I would expect the cost of imports to rise considerably.

€2.50 / litre of diesel or new currency equivalent??
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Old May 15th 2012, 3:19 pm   #42
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Default Re: EURO

Sounds like a great idea anonimouse but you surely don't think they haven't thought of that. All the money in banks, etc will be frozen and there will probably be limits put on the amounts of currency people can change if they live in a different country. If nothing else it will make for more bureacracy.
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Old May 15th 2012, 5:24 pm   #43
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Default Re: EURO

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Originally Posted by alecalgo View Post
Why are you all worrying ? .... simply because you are British, that's why, with our unique floating currency ! What about all the other EU folks in Spain ... your neighbours, the Germans & the like .... are they worrying ? I'd say not, simply because they are all tied together, sink or swim, with the Euro. They don't see 'fluctuations' between member states, because they don't exist. To a German living in spain the only thing in the papers bothering him is how such as Greece (and hopefully, he thinks, not spain or italy) are dragging his motherland down. In his mind, and he is dead right, he just wants shut of such a parasitical lot who have joined the EU under false pretences. Lying Toads who in the end, he may think, will affect my pension and my kids jobs back home.
---
So it'll be just Brits-in-Spain lathering themselves up into a cold sweat .... simply, and ironically, because we never joined the Euro monetary grouping in the first place. Why did we not join ..? Was it just sheer luck we didn't ? Well yes, to a point .... but, thankfully, there was a groundswell of far-seeing rationalising opinion against our joining. Despite Thatcher et al waving the flag for Britain, that we'd out-compete the Germans etc; we did a reality check and we realised that we would never be competitive enough in the EU and we would end up being a liability to both ourselves and the rest of the members - just like Greece is now !
---
SO ... OUT WITH GREECE ...! ought to be your neighbouring non-brit expats' cry ! They, the Germans et al, looking at us Brits, and the fact that we only survive because our currency can fluctuate vis-à-vis the Euro, can rightly extrapolate from that a pragmatic solution. That being that once Greece has been kicked out, and left to stand on it's own for a couple of years, it will again become a tourist and investment magnet due to a repeat of it's onetime advantageous exchange rate (thinking here of the '60, & 70's etc). Is there a usefull corrollary in there somewhere ?... well for sure there is. Just as you are worrying about your euros diminishing against the 130, say, exchange rate .... there'll be an old spaniard near you fairly rubbing his hands ! Thinking of the 260 pesetas to the £ exchange rates of long ago that brought the thronging Brits to spanish shores in the first place .... in his cups he will be wishing two things into existance - one, that there were more countries in the EU with floating currencies like the UK; and, two, that, following the Greek example of renaissance, that spain should go the same way too !
alec
If Greece goes, so will Italy, Portugal, Spain and Ireland and probably more, leaving Germany, France and Holland holding the bag. The high debt-to-GDP ratio countries could/would benefit greatly from leaving - those economies are simply not sustainable under an inflexible currency like the Euro.

(un)fortunately, there is no exit from the Eurozone - yet. But there might be soon... That's what everyone is afraid of.
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Old May 15th 2012, 5:41 pm   #44
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Default Re: EURO

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Originally Posted by amideislas View Post

(un)fortunately, there is no exit from the Eurozone - yet. But there might be soon... That's what everyone is afraid of.
Merkel finally facing reality.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...euro-exit.html
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