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$1.85450 to 1 Gbp

$1.85450 to 1 Gbp

Old Dec 19th 2013, 2:32 am
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Default $1.85450 to 1 Gbp

Now thats a nice Xmas present, onwards and upwards. Why is it happening though and how high could it go? Not looked for weeks, months, the last time i looked it was $1.5 to 1 Gbp. So thats a hell of a jump. Good for new arrivals will make the whole experience alo more pleasureable.
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Old Dec 19th 2013, 2:42 am
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Default Re: $1.85450 to 1 Gbp

Originally Posted by blackcab
Now thats a nice Xmas present, onwards and upwards. Why is it happening though and how high could it go? Not looked for weeks, months, the last time i looked it was $1.5 to 1 Gbp. So thats a hell of a jump. Good for new arrivals will make the whole experience alo more pleasureable.
It's been edging upward as the Australian economy has been looking more shaky and the UK economy less so. Last night however the US decided to turn down the volume on the 'printing money machine' and hence the currencies all took note (upshot is less money in A$).

Could see better rates still after Christmas if things progress as expected. RBA wants US$0.85
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Old Dec 19th 2013, 6:25 am
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Default Re: $1.85450 to 1 Gbp

Yes many factors, as Garry says UK economy showing good signs, Aussie economy slowing mostly.
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Old Dec 19th 2013, 8:01 am
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Default Re: $1.85450 to 1 Gbp

Originally Posted by chris955
Yes many factors, as Garry says UK economy showing good signs, Aussie economy slowing mostly.
So you don't think that the main reason is the tapering of QE by the Federal Reserve?

An interesting theory

Last edited by Amazulu; Dec 19th 2013 at 8:18 am.
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Old Dec 19th 2013, 8:14 am
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Default Re: $1.85450 to 1 Gbp

Not so long ago we were being told that the decline of the pound was because the British economy was doing badly and the Australian economy was so strong.

Now, apparently, it is all to do with the American Dollar and nothing to do with the respective economies at all

Amazing how economic theories change isn't it?
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Old Dec 19th 2013, 8:46 am
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Default Re: $1.85450 to 1 Gbp

Originally Posted by Grayling
Not so long ago we were being told that the decline of the pound was because the British economy was doing badly and the Australian economy was so strong.

Now, apparently, it is all to do with the American Dollar and nothing to do with the respective economies at all

Amazing how economic theories change isn't it?
Yes I noticed that myself, the truth hurts it seems.
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Old Dec 19th 2013, 9:36 am
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Default Re: $1.85450 to 1 Gbp

Originally Posted by Grayling
Not so long ago we were being told that the decline of the pound was because the British economy was doing badly and the Australian economy was so strong.

Now, apparently, it is all to do with the American Dollar and nothing to do with the respective economies at all

Amazing how economic theories change isn't it?
well see for yourself

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/char...p.png?s=wgdpuk
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/char...png?s=wgdpaust
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/char...rnygdppcapppcd
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/char...snygdppcapppcd
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Old Dec 19th 2013, 9:41 am
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Default Re: $1.85450 to 1 Gbp

Oh!....I rely on BE for all my financial advice
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Old Dec 19th 2013, 9:50 am
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Default Re: $1.85450 to 1 Gbp

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Old Dec 19th 2013, 9:56 am
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Default Re: $1.85450 to 1 Gbp

Originally Posted by Grayling
Not so long ago we were being told that the decline of the pound was because the British economy was doing badly and the Australian economy was so strong.

Now, apparently, it is all to do with the American Dollar and nothing to do with the respective economies at all

Amazing how economic theories change isn't it?
It's not complicated. For a while now the Oz dollar has been trending downwards as people considered Australia to be doing badly, and the UK/US to be doing better. That bought it to ~1.81. Then yesterday night the US finally slowed down, slightly, the QE money machine - bringing it to ~1.85. The thinking is that the effects from the GFC are finally playing out, and so the trend is back towards the 2.40:1 that's been the historical average.

That's been the trend since March of this year, really kicking into high gear mid Nov.

Its the same drivers, the same sentiment, for over 5 years now.

The only questionable bit is one of the reasons the Oz trend looks bad (besides the lack of confidence in Hockey over Swan) is the slowdown in China's demand - which suggests that another GFC might be round the corner - this time starting in China.
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Old Dec 19th 2013, 9:57 am
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Default Re: $1.85450 to 1 Gbp

Originally Posted by Grayling
Oh!....I rely on BE for all my financial advice
They are going to have to redo all those now that the exchange rate has changed so much, thats the problem when they do it in a different currency.
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Old Dec 19th 2013, 9:57 am
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Default Re: $1.85450 to 1 Gbp

Originally Posted by GarryP
It's not complicated. For a while now the Oz dollar has been trending downwards as people considered Australia to be doing badly, and the UK/US to be doing better. That bought it to ~1.81. Then yesterday night the US finally slowed down, slightly, the QE money machine - bringing it to ~1.85. The thinking is that the effects from the GFC are finally playing out, and so the trend is back towards the 2.40:1 that's been the historical average.

That's been the trend since March of this year, really kicking into high gear mid Nov.

Its the same drivers, the same sentiment, for over 5 years now.

The only questionable bit is one of the reasons the Oz trend looks bad (besides the lack of confidence in Hockey over Swan) is the slowdown in China's demand - which suggests that another GFC might be round the corner - this time starting in China.
I was being sarcastic
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Old Dec 19th 2013, 10:01 am
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Default Re: $1.85450 to 1 Gbp

Originally Posted by GarryP
It's not complicated. For a while now the Oz dollar has been trending downwards as people considered Australia to be doing badly, and the UK/US to be doing better. That bought it to ~1.81. Then yesterday night the US finally slowed down, slightly, the QE money machine - bringing it to ~1.85. The thinking is that the effects from the GFC are finally playing out, and so the trend is back towards the 2.40:1 that's been the historical average.

That's been the trend since March of this year, really kicking into high gear mid Nov.

Its the same drivers, the same sentiment, for over 5 years now.

The only questionable bit is one of the reasons the Oz trend looks bad (besides the lack of confidence in Hockey over Swan) is the slowdown in China's demand - which suggests that another GFC might be round the corner - this time starting in China.
I think the argument some have been making is that change in the value of the AUD is simply because that's what the RBA wants and it's just a sign of everything going to plan. In fact the RBA has been trying to talk AUD down for years without success...the market will decide the value of AUD regardless of what the RBA has to say. Even in very recent times when the RBA has been trying to talk down the dollar it has gone from a level similar to what it is today all the way back to $0.98 (and back again). Clearly GBPAUD got a big boost from UK unemployment numbers yesterday.
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Old Dec 19th 2013, 10:21 am
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Default Re: $1.85450 to 1 Gbp

Originally Posted by Grayling
I was being sarcastic
Can I change my haddock vote?

Oh, and can I change the haddock for a swordfish?

Originally Posted by bcworld
I think the argument some have been making is that change in the value of the AUD is simply because that's what the RBA wants and it's just a sign of everything going to plan. In fact the RBA has been trying to talk AUD down for years without success...
First rule of politics club - always call for what is going to happen anyway, it makes it look like you are in control and ahead of the game.

I'm surprised they haven't called for a 'reduced emphasis on mining', together with 'a move away from manufacturing'...
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Old Dec 19th 2013, 8:28 pm
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Default Re: $1.85450 to 1 Gbp

Originally Posted by blackcab
Now thats a nice Xmas present, onwards and upwards. Why is it happening though and how high could it go? Not looked for weeks, months, the last time i looked it was $1.5 to 1 Gbp. So thats a hell of a jump. Good for new arrivals will make the whole experience alo more pleasureable.
I never quite subscribe to how that is good news for new arrivals. For some yes, those who are moving permanently and bringing their life savings. What about those who are moving on a temporary basis, and need the $A as high as possible. They may have a mortgage to pay back in the UK.
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