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Old Apr 10th 2016, 12:39 am   #1
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Smile Net migration hits new record



There has been some talk of our economies ability to create jobs being outstripped by new arrivals and it seems to me this creates some negative sentiment about New Zealand when people go through the application process to come and live on our little cluster of islands but don't find employment.

Is it time we introduced some dynamic control tightened our selection criteria? This way we could better control unemployment rates, income growth and ensure better outcomes for those who do migrate. To add some context over the last 5 years, since 2011, we have added 250,000 people to our population but created only 181,000 jobs (and built far fewer houses, obviously ). My argument isn't that 'we're full' but the rate we can create employment is limited and it's important we attract and retain the young and talented people.
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Old Apr 10th 2016, 2:05 am   #2
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Default Re: Net migration hits new record

Aye, sounds like a recipe for disaster.

That tells me that the current issues are set to worsen with a whole lot more people out there looking for work, driving down wages and willing to take on jobs that are well below their pay grade just to struggle along to pay a massive mortgage on a less than average house.

Better living everyone.
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Old Apr 10th 2016, 2:08 am   #3
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Default Re: Net migration hits new record

I personally think they need to look at the skills list more often, not give certain countries basically a free for all, and strengthen the oversea's investment criteria so more of the money stays in NZ.
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Old Apr 10th 2016, 2:19 am   #4
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Default Re: Net migration hits new record

The 'increase' is driven largely from having less people leaving NZ to go to Aussie and from Kiwis returning from there due to decline in the Aussie economy, rather than an increase in the numbers of foreigners and skilled migrants that immigration have let in from elsewhere. NZ has quite successfully managed to export its unemployment issues over to Aussie for quite some time but now the tide is turning.
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Old Apr 10th 2016, 3:25 am   #5
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Smile Re: Net migration hits new record

We can't stop Kiwis moving home but we can balance the rate of migration against basic quality of life measures.

I was thinking about mechanistic rules to avoid bias along the lines of if any two of the following three rules are met then standard application criteria (current criteria) apply:
1. If unemployment is under 5%.
2. Wages are growing at above the rate of inflation (CPI) + 3%
3. Number of dwellings consented under RMA exceeds number of households formed.

If two of these criteria are not met then more stringent criteria apply such as:
Genuine offer of permanent employment of not less than 1.5x median regional salary in which employee is based and the visa ends perhaps after a year of not being in full time paid employed. Then you could only move from a work to PR visa when the above conditions where met.
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Old Apr 10th 2016, 6:35 am   #6
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Default Re: Net migration hits new record

I don't think the government will be too worried to be honest, any serious increase in unemployment will likely equalise itself by an increase of people migrating to OZ which is the way it's been for years. It's crazy the government never has any answer to this, a nation that used to have the best quality of life in the world
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Old Apr 10th 2016, 6:42 am   #7
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Default Re: Net migration hits new record

the new rules for employee Kiwis in the UK is going to bring lots of the OE people back earlier than planned and stopped lots of them gaining work in the future over there.
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Old Apr 11th 2016, 4:08 am   #8
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Default Re: Net migration hits new record

You may not be surprised to hear that Im not as pessimistic as some on here. Despite this record influx of people, NZs unemployment rate has fallen to one of its lowest levels in years to 5%. Immigration stimulates growth, doesnt it? In that sense, every extra skilled immigrant adds more than one extra job to the mix. So yes, it may well be better living.
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Old Apr 28th 2016, 10:59 am   #9
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Default Re: Net migration hits new record

It seems abit rich us complaining about inward migration to NZ, without which we wouldn't be here. For my money though the biggest problem is the lack of new homes to keep pace, which leads to the ridiculous high house prices in the main centres, particularly Auckland.
High prices compared to incomes. While interest rates are at historic lows (NZwise, via the rest of the world they're high at the mo), it wouldn't take much movement to put many people in problems.
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Old Apr 29th 2016, 6:46 am   #10
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Default Re: Net migration hits new record

Quote:
Originally Posted by chocolate cake View Post
It seems abit rich us complaining about inward migration to NZ, without which we wouldn't be here. For my money though the biggest problem is the lack of new homes to keep pace, which leads to the ridiculous high house prices in the main centres, particularly Auckland.
High prices compared to incomes. While interest rates are at historic lows (NZwise, via the rest of the world they're high at the mo), it wouldn't take much movement to put many people in problems.
True - I can remember in my youth UK interest rates at 15% and my first mortgage was at about 10% which was considered acceptable ! Can you imagine what would happen if that reoccurred (Brexit?) the Great Depression would have nothing on it (no I can't remember that) :-)
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Old Apr 29th 2016, 1:07 pm   #11
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Default Re: Net migration hits new record

Quote:
Originally Posted by chocolate cake View Post
It seems abit rich us complaining about inward migration to NZ, without which we wouldn't be here.
It amazes me how many forget this


Quote:
Originally Posted by chocolate cake View Post
High prices compared to incomes. While interest rates are at historic lows (NZwise, via the rest of the world they're high at the mo), it wouldn't take much movement to put many people in problems.
It amazes me how many forget this
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Old May 2nd 2016, 7:45 am   #12
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Default Re: Net migration hits new record

Quote:
Originally Posted by garethwm View Post
You may not be surprised to hear that Im not as pessimistic as some on here. Despite this record influx of people, NZs unemployment rate has fallen to one of its lowest levels in years to 5%. Immigration stimulates growth, doesnt it? In that sense, every extra skilled immigrant adds more than one extra job to the mix. So yes, it may well be better living.
Well immigration stokes economic growth in the long term but what I’m arguing is that in the short term with real income flat and the cost of some key living expenses climbing (house prices, rents etc.) we should think about ways to throttle the pace of immigration to allow our economy to make sure New Zealand provides the best quality of life for those lucky enough to live or be moving here.
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...it wouldn't take much movement to put many people in problems.
Very unlikely, we live in an era of very accommodating central bank policy helping keep the credit growth up. It’s the temporary fix for lack of economic growth that keeps on giving, makes people feel wealthier and keeps them spending. Then it’s QE and negative rates which is more of the same (although banks hate negative rates, it really hurts their competitiveness as they can’t pass on negative rates to savers…people would just stick their money under the mattress so they end up pushing up the margin on loans).

Eventually you have to admit that an economy with a vastly uneven distribution of wealth can’t actually operate in a way that creates economic growth so end up with a helicopter money solution I think. Sort of capitalism deferring to socialism.
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Old Jun 11th 2016, 10:18 pm   #13
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Smile Re: Net migration hits new record

Interestingly a Department of Treasury report flagged the same issue recently.
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Old Jun 15th 2016, 1:19 pm   #14
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Default Re: Net migration hits new record

Just noted at the top "since 2011, we have added 250,000 people to our population but created only 181,000 jobs".

If this quote is accurate nearly 75% of the new population have jobs, and assuming that some of the migrants are families with children then the number of adults seeking employment must be significantly lower than the 250,000 figure. Take off all the parents moving in who don't need jobs and the impact is even lower.

NZ is really tight for migrants coming in.

Returning Kiwis are, of course, a different problem. :-)
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Old Jun 16th 2016, 9:03 am   #15
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Default Re: Net migration hits new record

Per capita growth stalls, numbers are propped up by immigrants.
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