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Search: Posts Made By: Charismatic
Showing results 1 to 25 of 46
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Forum: New Zealand
Apr 23rd 2017, 7:32 am
Replies: 484
Views: 99,821
Posted By Charismatic

Smile Re: 20% deposit needed to buy a house from oct

Good little inflation boost over the last couple of quarters, now at 2.2% which is within target so, if persistent, gives the Reserve Bank options as to what they'd like to do with rates. This may...
Forum: New Zealand
Nov 7th 2016, 7:17 am
Replies: 484
Views: 99,821
Posted By Charismatic

Re: 20% deposit needed to buy a house from oct

Someone at Statistics New Zealand stuffed up the inflation numbers, should have been 0.3% not 0.2% which makes an OCR cut less likely.
Forum: New Zealand
Oct 25th 2016, 3:49 am
Replies: 484
Views: 99,821
Posted By Charismatic

Re: 20% deposit needed to buy a house from oct

RBNZ to forecast future OCR changes. This should be good, the US Federal Reserve has got their forecasting wrong frequently by being over-optimistic. The economists game now will change from guessing...
Forum: New Zealand
Oct 24th 2016, 2:37 am
Replies: 484
Views: 99,821
Posted By Charismatic

Re: 20% deposit needed to buy a house from oct

The reserve bank has made an official request for debt to income limits. At this point I doubt this will be approves or even discussed further before the next election.
Forum: New Zealand
Sep 13th 2016, 8:23 pm
Replies: 484
Views: 99,821
Posted By Charismatic

Re: 20% deposit needed to buy a house from oct

If unemployment picks up (the Reserve Bank of New Zealand isn't duel mandate, they just target CPI stability and not employment) then debt servicing could get difficult. Doesn't take a genius to...
Forum: New Zealand
Sep 7th 2016, 6:47 am
Replies: 484
Views: 99,821
Posted By Charismatic

Re: 20% deposit needed to buy a house from oct

Then they don't live in Auckland? Businesses love Auckland because the wages are really no higher than the rest of New Zealand (Wellington is really the home of wealth and power in New Zealand) but...
Forum: New Zealand
Sep 6th 2016, 10:41 am
Replies: 484
Views: 99,821
Posted By Charismatic

Re: 20% deposit needed to buy a house from oct

Awesome! Can only go higher if rates get lower.

Basically however house prices aren't factored into CPI inflation which the reserve bank targets.
Forum: New Zealand
Sep 2nd 2016, 9:26 pm
Replies: 484
Views: 99,821
Posted By Charismatic

Smile Re: 20% deposit needed to buy a house from oct

I think we've been driving around for years with the check engine light on.

Interestingly banks also got a downgrade recently for having a higher proportion of lending on interest only terms....
Forum: New Zealand
Sep 1st 2016, 7:31 am
Replies: 484
Views: 99,821
Posted By Charismatic

Smile Re: 20% deposit needed to buy a house from oct

So we are now housing last place in affordability by price to income according to the IMF.
Forum: New Zealand
Aug 11th 2016, 5:12 am
Replies: 484
Views: 99,821
Posted By Charismatic

Re: 20% deposit needed to buy a house from oct

Any money put "at risk" has tended to do well since about '09 be that fixed assets like houses or elsewhere.



So 25bps cut but the weight of a 50bps cut expectation meant even as the guv' was...
Forum: New Zealand
Aug 10th 2016, 9:55 am
Replies: 484
Views: 99,821
Posted By Charismatic

Smile Re: 20% deposit needed to buy a house from oct

RBNZ OCR tomorrow, most thinking is a 25bps cut (priced in) but there is a few opinions spread to 50bps as well.
Forum: New Zealand
Aug 8th 2016, 7:57 am
Replies: 484
Views: 99,821
Posted By Charismatic

Smile Re: 20% deposit needed to buy a house from oct

So back a few years ago we decided we would let banks regulate their own capital requirements. As you've probably already guessed, banks where responsible and set prudent...o who am I kidding? They...
Forum: New Zealand
Aug 3rd 2016, 11:12 am
Replies: 484
Views: 99,821
Posted By Charismatic

Re: 20% deposit needed to buy a house from oct

Interesting, wage growth is at 0.4% last quarter...which means inflation adjusted wage growth is at 0%.

I'd expect to see bank rates drop in the next week or two, there might be room again for sub...
Forum: New Zealand
Jul 26th 2016, 7:49 am
Replies: 484
Views: 99,821
Posted By Charismatic

Smile Re: 20% deposit needed to buy a house from oct

Kiwibanks economists have looked deeply into crystal balls and sifted through tea leaves: 3 cuts by early next year and so we get to 1.5%. Not a silly bet really, inflation needs to come up by nearly...
Forum: New Zealand
Jul 22nd 2016, 8:45 am
Replies: 484
Views: 99,821
Posted By Charismatic

Smile Re: 20% deposit needed to buy a house from oct

Meeting reserve requirements using overseas funds :). Also as a conduit for carry trade.
Forum: New Zealand
Jul 21st 2016, 7:07 am
Replies: 484
Views: 99,821
Posted By Charismatic

Smile Re: 20% deposit needed to buy a house from oct

He is right but I'm going to add that the reserve banks job is to maintain financial stability. They only care about affordability in so far as it risks taking down a bank or a house price recession...
Forum: New Zealand
Jul 19th 2016, 8:08 am
Replies: 484
Views: 99,821
Posted By Charismatic

Smile Re: 20% deposit needed to buy a house from oct

LVR limits to increase for landlords and people trying to buy houses in September. Debt to income ratios rereannounced.

Meh. Nothing likely to have any long term effect.
Forum: New Zealand
Jul 18th 2016, 10:09 am
Replies: 484
Views: 99,821
Posted By Charismatic

Re: 20% deposit needed to buy a house from oct

Looks like an out of sequence announcement is due from RBNZ on Thursday. Wouldn't be surprised me if they say nothing new or interesting but just confirm a likely rate cut based on forecasts etc....
Forum: New Zealand
Jul 9th 2016, 12:36 am
Replies: 484
Views: 99,821
Posted By Charismatic

Wink Re: 20% deposit needed to buy a house from oct

The Reserve Bank announced a consultation with...blah, blah, blah and nothing was actually announced. :lol:

Then the Prime Minister poked the Reserve Bank for not doing anything immediately which...
Forum: New Zealand
Jul 5th 2016, 11:25 am
Replies: 484
Views: 99,821
Posted By Charismatic

Smile Re: 20% deposit needed to buy a house from oct

Now at over $975,000 and likely $1m+ by Christmas at this pace.

Staggering to me banks would take this kind of credit exposure even with an LVR buffer, when this tide goes out there may be more...
Forum: New Zealand
Jun 5th 2016, 3:43 am
Replies: 484
Views: 99,821
Posted By Charismatic

Smile Re: 20% deposit needed to buy a house from oct

I think the current US bull market is now the second longest bull market since the second world war (beaten by the .com boom running from October 1990 to March 2000). That said this is unlikely to be...
Forum: New Zealand
Jun 4th 2016, 11:41 pm
Replies: 484
Views: 99,821
Posted By Charismatic

Smile Re: 20% deposit needed to buy a house from oct

ANZ made quite a few changes aimed at reducing their high risk market exposure....
Forum: New Zealand
May 11th 2016, 8:44 am
Replies: 484
Views: 99,821
Posted By Charismatic

Smile Re: 20% deposit needed to buy a house from oct

The only problem is median income of a full time employee in New Zealand is $51,000/year, which would let the median worker borrow about $229,500 at 4.5x. This might be a quarter to a half a median...
Forum: New Zealand
May 3rd 2016, 9:52 am
Replies: 484
Views: 99,821
Posted By Charismatic

Smile Re: 20% deposit needed to buy a house from oct

Interesting difference in thinking between reserve banks:
- Australia cut from a base rate of 2%, inflation was at 1.3% and unemployment at 6%.
- New Zealand didn't cut from 2.25%, inflation was...
Forum: New Zealand
May 1st 2016, 2:19 am
Replies: 484
Views: 99,821
Posted By Charismatic

Re: 20% deposit needed to buy a house from oct

On the other hand why regulate banks? Most have taken margin from recent OCRs and hold better capital ratios against mortgage books than required. In addition LVR ratios protect banks from a rapid...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 46
 
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