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UAE population to oil prices

UAE population to oil prices

Old Sep 18th 2016, 11:15 am
  #16  
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Default Re: UAE population to oil prices

Originally Posted by Meow
No it isn't.

Leave the sensible discussion to the grown ups.
As much as I am pained to say it, I agree with Iggles.

Dubai's economy is largely (but not fully) consumer based - consumption requires people. People come due to the money. The money comes from the oil eventually.
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Old Sep 18th 2016, 11:16 am
  #17  
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Default Re: UAE population to oil prices

Originally Posted by Meow
Not rude, just factual and that's quite preposterous coming from you with your persistent childish and misogynistic comments and fictitious claims.

You know so very little, far less than your ego will admit, and the posters on this forum are laughing at you (not with you) every day.
To be fair though meow, me and you have been here for well over 10 years, there is a serious cash flow problem, it's worse than 2009 (in my opinion), the government are laying people off and cancelling projects, the tides of change (Khalifa to Mohd) are rippling through.

I'm not hopeful, so much so I'm heading to the States with a Trump Presidency in the New year.
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Old Sep 18th 2016, 11:20 am
  #18  
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Default Re: UAE population to oil prices

Originally Posted by Meow
That graph does not show any dips when oil prices have declined so surely it shows that the economy is not as dependent on oil as people might think? Dubai certainly isn't dependent on oil.
I have been trying to think about this one too - no dips in population growth (although a massive drop in the growth rate) when the oil priced dropped.

Of course, those that were here when it happened will know that the population in the cities did decline. So, either the numbers are questionable, or there was a shift in mix of the people. i.e. from expensive to cheap. I believe the latter - as this is what I saw in Ghetto de la Ranches when all the Europeans left only to be replaced by middle income Arabs.

You don't want cities full of paupers - they don't spend, they send money home and they break your infrastructure in the process.
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Old Sep 18th 2016, 11:30 am
  #19  
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Default Re: UAE population to oil prices

Originally Posted by Millhouse
I have been trying to think about this one too - no dips in population growth (although a massive drop in the growth rate) when the oil priced dropped.

Of course, those that were here when it happened will know that the population in the cities did decline. So, either the numbers are questionable, or there was a shift in mix of the people. i.e. from expensive to cheap. I believe the latter - as this is what I saw in Ghetto de la Ranches when all the Europeans left only to be replaced by middle income Arabs.

You don't want cities full of paupers - they don't spend, they send money home and they break your infrastructure in the process.
Too right young man. The Brits have by and large left for other shores.

All that is left is the sub continent and arabs who work for a quarter of what the decent Brits do.
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Old Sep 18th 2016, 11:33 am
  #20  
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Default Re: UAE population to oil prices

Originally Posted by Millhouse
I have been trying to think about this one too - no dips in population growth (although a massive drop in the growth rate) when the oil priced dropped.

Of course, those that were here when it happened will know that the population in the cities did decline. So, either the numbers are questionable, or there was a shift in mix of the people. i.e. from expensive to cheap. I believe the latter - as this is what I saw in Ghetto de la Ranches when all the Europeans left only to be replaced by middle income Arabs.

You don't want cities full of paupers - they don't spend, they send money home and they break your infrastructure in the process.
It's probably a combination, but there has definitely been a change in the type of people coming into Dubai over the last couple of years. I'm sure there was a similar thread about 6 months ago. Fire the western guy and hire someone with half the experience for 25% of the cost..

And on top of that some western guys are killing those of us already here by accepting packages way below market rate.
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Old Sep 18th 2016, 11:44 am
  #21  
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Default Re: UAE population to oil prices

The place is still packed with British expats....

I am not a Dubai booster (far from it) but working in AD and travelling frequently to Doha, I can't help but observe how much more construction there seems to be in Dubai at the moment. Plus tendering for large scale infrastructure to support the expo 2020, including a very expensive extension of the metro.

From a tendering and government contracting perspective, AD is dead. Doha is very quiet. Dubai seems to have a bit more life - either the government is in denial or they're building everything on debt (likely a combination of the two).

The economy in the UAE and especially Dubai is much more diverse than the rest of the gulf. The free zones have exploded. Jebel Ali is almost down to the AD border now. Emirates and logistics are bigger than ever. It's still the finance centre for the region. So who knows.

And whoever believes the UAE authorities when it comes to population statistics?



Originally Posted by IKnowNothing
Too right young man. The Brits have by and large left for other shores.

All that is left is the sub continent and arabs who work for a quarter of what the decent Brits do.
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Old Sep 18th 2016, 11:50 am
  #22  
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Default Re: UAE population to oil prices

As someone working at a multinational a/e/c firm there's definitely pressure to replace westerners with cheaper candidates, not because we want to but because government tendering is now very cost conscious and the only way to remain competitive is to replace higher cost westerners with lower cost Asians and Middle Easterners.

AD government tender scoring is now 50% technical and 50% pricing!

The longer this trend goes on you might see the big firms start reducing their footprint in the region. The bigwigs in my firm in the US and UK are increasingly unhappy with lower margins versus the risk, delayed payment and the hassles of finding cheaper staff while trying to maintain a high level of quality in the output.

Originally Posted by norsk
It's probably a combination, but there has definitely been a change in the type of people coming into Dubai over the last couple of years. I'm sure there was a similar thread about 6 months ago. Fire the western guy and hire someone with half the experience for 25% of the cost..

And on top of that some western guys are killing those of us already here by accepting packages way below market rate.
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Old Sep 18th 2016, 11:51 am
  #23  
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Default Re: UAE population to oil prices

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH
The place is still packed with British expats....

I am not a Dubai booster (far from it) but working in AD and travelling frequently to Doha, I can't help but observe how much more construction there seems to be in Dubai at the moment. Plus tendering for large scale infrastructure to support the expo 2020, including a very expensive extension of the metro.

From a tendering and government contracting perspective, AD is dead. Doha is very quiet. Dubai seems to have a bit more life - either the government is in denial or they're building everything on debt (likely a combination of the two).

The economy in the UAE and especially Dubai is much more diverse than the rest of the gulf. The free zones have exploded. Jebel Ali is almost down to the AD border now. Emirates and logistics are bigger than ever. It's still the finance centre for the region. So who knows.

And whoever believes the UAE authorities when it comes to population statistics?
Dubai won't pay for it though.......
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Old Sep 18th 2016, 11:53 am
  #24  
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Default Re: UAE population to oil prices

Originally Posted by IKnowNothing
Dubai won't pay for it though.......
ATM Abu Dhabi is paying contractors, Dubai is tight as a tiger
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Old Sep 18th 2016, 11:57 am
  #25  
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Default Re: UAE population to oil prices

Originally Posted by iggle
ATM Abu Dhabi is paying contractors, Dubai is tight as a tiger
AD will bail out Dubai (again), Dubai is the enfant terrible to AD.
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Old Sep 18th 2016, 12:02 pm
  #26  
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Default Re: UAE population to oil prices

Will they? When they've slashed everyone's budgets in AD?

Originally Posted by IKnowNothing
AD will bail out Dubai (again), Dubai is the enfant terrible to AD.
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Old Sep 18th 2016, 1:46 pm
  #27  
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Default Re: UAE population to oil prices

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH
Will they? When they've slashed everyone's budgets in AD?
Yes, because it's all to do with front.
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Old Sep 18th 2016, 3:06 pm
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Default Re: UAE population to oil prices

Originally Posted by Meow
That graph does not show any dips when oil prices have declined so surely it shows that the economy is not as dependent on oil as people might think? Dubai certainly isn't dependent on oil.
Over time, the percentage of the economy which is dependent on oil has progressively declined, and will continue to do so. But the question I would ask now, in 2016, is how much of the population is dependent on construction? because it seems to me that a sizeable number of people are construction works, who will all be sent home when the construction boom ends.
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Old Sep 18th 2016, 8:10 pm
  #29  
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Default Re: UAE population to oil prices

While the original graph does show correlation...

UAE population to oil prices-image.jpeg
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Old Sep 19th 2016, 3:54 am
  #30  
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Default Re: UAE population to oil prices

Originally Posted by Pulaski
Over time, the percentage of the economy which is dependent on oil has progressively declined, and will continue to do so. But the question I would ask now, in 2016, is how much of the population is dependent on construction? because it seems to me that a sizeable number of people are construction works, who will all be sent home when the construction boom ends.
OOOOOO That's very clever. I like what you did, you thought outside the box.

And I Totally agree with you.

If it helps Hong Kong is having a construction boom, thats now firmly on my radar.
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