Arnold S

A few thoughts on the election as the polling booths open

The polls say a Tory win and but it certainly won't be the landslide predicted when they called this election.

May's authority to lead both the party and the country is in tatters. Her campaign has consisted of poor platitudes and spin fronted by someone too inept to carry it off. "Fields of wheat" and strong and stable in her final address are signs off a press office hanging her out to dry.

They'll let her open for Brexit but a short list for top order will have been drawn up weeks ago now. Larry the cat has more chance than Boris of being on it.

Against quite insurmountable opposition Corbyn has played a blinder of a campaign. Forget the Tories and The Sun (though the depths they sunk to yesterday was a new low) he's had to overcome Labour party activists smearing and campaigning against him right up to today.

He'll probably never be PM but I don't think that was ever the point. What he has done is reignite a large section of the population and shown that another form of politics is viable. This social populism is also the perfect anecdote to Crosby's 10x budget and social media processes. For every paid Facebook post they buy, there's a free like and share to counter.

It's very early days but the seeds of his "new kind of politics" may have been sewn.

The SNP have probably played the best tactical campaign of the election and quite deftly maneuvered themselves into a win/win, long term situation.

Buy completely isolating Scottish Labour, who've been licking their wounds for years, they've turned Scotland into the ideal two horse race. They've done all they can with their stint in Westminster and if Ruth's Conservatives take a few seats off them, then all the better.

It's a tad playing with fire but 6 to 8 Scottish Tories, a Conservative govt and Brexit is as good an environment as they're ever going to get for launching the independence referendum they already have a mandate on. Ironically, it's Corbyn's Labour that is the biggest threat to the SNP which is why they've done everything they can to turn it into Scotland v the Tories, Us v Them.

If somehow Labour do sneak it today then it's going to be a coalition government and they get to play Scotland's custodians with populist policies for another four years and get much needed exposure to international affairs, without the liability that learning on the job post-indy would bring.

I voted Green btw

scrubbedexpat141

This fields of wheat thing, it was very cringe and all that....but the response makes me chuckle. Do people want some reprobate who was smoking at 11 and burning cars on the street by 15? ****ing morons.

Arnold S

"What was the naughtiest thing you ever done?"

"Loosing a dossier on top flight child abuse"

My point is that question would have been submitted in advance and work shopped prior to that interview. The answer probably did come from her but the fact her team let her go through with it, says a few things.

Millhouse

maybe it was the naughtiest thing she did... she just didn't give all the details... naked, and chasing a donkey.

BEVS

I have a rotten head cold as of today so am being a bit slow.

I don't understand what this means.

Arnold S

Theresa May was asked in a fluff piece what the naughtiest thing she ever did was. Her answer of "running through fields of wheat and annoying the farmer" suggests a level of disconnect with the populace and, arguably, a lack of personality.

scrubbedexpat141

Certainly spices it up, probably appeals to the average moron more.

Sort of this:

But without the criticism, my point is, if that's the naughtiest things she's done then saying she's boring is one thing, but saying she's not a scum bag and was a good, well behaved child is the other way of looking at it.

If more naughty = good then let's find someone in prison or someone who was a total bellend as a kid be PM.

DXBtoDOH

A highly controversial maverick with minimal or no real political or policy experience bursts upon the scene, capitalizing on a deep seated desire, anger, and selfishness among a segment of the voters who see themselves as overlooked and ignored by the majority and seeking revenge against the establishment and their inability to respond to their particular cares. The maverick does tap into a legitimate frustration and prides himself on speaking the plain truth and packs the auditoriums who give him rousing cheers every time he promises the sky and heavens and that he’d enact wide ranging, radical reforms overturning years, even decades of policies (but despite that these uncosted policies so would badly affect the economy, which would most negatively affect his own voting base).

The maverick quickly builds up a loyal following who conveniently overlook or ignore or justify his highly controversial past and provocative history. The maverick is also surrounded by a tightly knit circle of loyal advisors who have even more controversial history on the far extremes of political radicalism including openly supporting heavily discredited ideologies that have demonstrated to be disastrous, both economically and in human costs.

But all this is ignored by a voter base who project on this maverick their own dreams and angers as they forget what’s personal is not the same as important.

Am I talking about Donald Trump? Or Jeremy Corbyn?

Millhouse

I thought it was your buddy farage.

Arnold S

If Mummy had spin like that, she'd still be 20 pts ahead today

scrubbedexpat141

It's gonna happens isn't it.

Brexit
Trump
Corbyn

Shit comes in 3's.

al dente

I would find some perverse pleasure in seeing Trump and Corbyn though. Imagine the headaches for the mandarins.

BEVS

It is an interesting one. For me it happens like this

Shite comes in 3's

Brexit
Trump
May

scrubbedexpat141

Whilst fair comment, I think you could go back to my original and change it slightly:

Surprises come in 3's:

Brexit
Trump
Corbyn

That is, of course, only if shit and surprises do come in 3's....

DXBtoDOH

Anyone want to make final predictions on today's outcome? Vote breakdown by %? Size of majority?

Or are we too scared?