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Old Sep 4th 2017, 7:12 am   #16
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Default Re: Brexit Negotiations

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Originally Posted by Inselaffen View Post
EU are not interested in negotiating. They just want to discourage anyone one else from exercising their legal right to exit from the EU. Their is no legal basis for their demands for an exit fee. Their own lawyers have told them that.

I was marginally pro-remain but having seen how childish the EU (Juncker and Barnier) are acting I'm now pro-Brexit.
Could probably flip that.

The EU were pro-remain but having seen how childish the UK (especially the public who voted) are acting, they're now pro-Brexit.
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Old Sep 4th 2017, 7:59 am   #17
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Default Re: Brexit Negotiations

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Could probably flip that.

The EU were pro-remain but having seen how childish the UK (especially the public who voted) are acting, they're now pro-Brexit.
Yes this.

I suppose I am not surprised that people are falling for the right-wing press line that the EU are being childish and obdurate when it's clear that they are serious and prepared (it is a negotiation after all - you hardly lead with your weakest position) while the British government are flailing about like drunks drowning in a bath.

Nothing illustrates the cluelessness and cynicism of the government's Brexit approach more sharply than the border with the Irish Republic. The UK people voted for the border to be reinstated - apparently. Like the whole Brexit case, they were assured that they could have their cake and eat it too. Thus, Mrs. May's "government", now dependent on the support of the most disgusting bunch of self-righteously vicious clowns in parliament, says they want "flexible and imaginative solutions" to avoid a hard border. So what are these solutions? Ummmm, computers and things... Why don't you suggest something?

I don't much care for much of the politics of the new Taoiseach but I am 100% with him when he says "we're not going to design the border for you that you [email protected]@king voted for...."

I'm already angry that small-minded ignorant English nationalism has thoughtlessly destroyed the future of other parts of the UK. So it's beyond infuriating that now there is some blithe expectation that it will all just get sorted out, again with unicorns and rainbows. The mainstream English media are totally underestimating the existential crisis that Brexit is causing for Northern Ireland.

Well, as a citizen of by far the largest, most prosperous (and most pleasant to live in) economic bloc in the world, I'm now coming to the view that if I have to have a land border with an unstable declining basket case, then maybe I want it to be a hard border, even if means abandoning many fellow citizens. The last thing we want are streams of economic refugees as Brexit bites back.
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Old Sep 4th 2017, 8:22 am   #18
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Default Re: Brexit Negotiations

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Originally Posted by IKnowNothing View Post
I've given up and got very bored with it, just get on with it, leave, scrap the EU Courts, scrap uncontrolled immigration, do some trade deals with the larger growing economies and move on.

It's more painful than both of my divorces.
Again I ask, trade deals with whom, for what?

There are two main components to British industry:
1. Businesses which have a particular competitive advantage based on intellectual property, whether that is technology or branding, or some other unique proposition;
2. Businesses which are not so highly differentiated but which have sufficient scale and proximity to their customers to be able to efficiently compete.

The first group, sadly fairly small, will continue to thrive as long as they can sustain their advantage regardless of any trade deal (or whether the UK is in out or shaking it all about with the EU).

The second group, comprising most of UK industrial employment, are probably, to use the technical economic term, [email protected]@ked. The UK has no particular advantage in costs, whether labour, utilities, "compliance" etc. over any other industrialised economies. In fact it is probably more costly than many, such as the US or Southern or Central Europe. Being part of the EU allows huge UK industries such as automotive and chemicals and financial services to efficiently leverage their scale and proximity to Europe. What other trade deal is going to come anywhere close to replacing that?

Meanwhile, another point that keeps getting missed, is that there are no large economies anywhere that don't already have other important trade deals or, almost invariably, membership of key trade blocs. This seriously restricts their ability to negotiate. So even if there is anything specific worth pursuing - and I'm still waiting to hear even ONE meaningful example - it may be hideously complicated and time-consuming to achieve. It's a good thing that the UK has so many experienced and skilled trade negotiators - oh, er, hang on...

Meanwhile the clock ticks on and those who so ardently celebrated the exercising of Article 50 as though it couldn't have come soon enough, have yet to tell us specifically and credibly how they are going to avoid the imminent decimation of UK industry.

Last edited by Miss Ann Thrope; Sep 4th 2017 at 8:26 am.
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Old Sep 4th 2017, 8:27 am   #19
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Default Re: Brexit Negotiations

Still, at least the pound is weighing up well against the Euro.
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Old Sep 4th 2017, 8:31 am   #20
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Default Re: Brexit Negotiations

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Still, at least the pound is weighing up well against the Euro.
In fairness, the collapse of the pound is probably the only mitigating factor for the Brexiteers.
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Old Sep 4th 2017, 12:28 pm   #21
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Default Re: Brexit Negotiations

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In fairness, the collapse of the pound is probably the only mitigating factor for the Brexiteers.
Any good news?
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Old Sep 4th 2017, 11:13 pm   #22
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Default Re: Brexit Negotiations

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Originally Posted by Miss Ann Thrope View Post
Thus, Mrs. May's "government" says they want "flexible and imaginative solutions"
In other words "We won by lying to the British public that the EU would roll over and allow us to cherry-pick everything about EU membership we wanted and drop everything we didn't. Obviously that was always just a fantasy, but because reality is now starting to intrude and all those issues we hand-waved as Project Fear are beginning to bite, we really need you to pull magical solutions to incredibly complex problems out of your arses, because frankly we've got nothing".

I'm starting to form the opinion that what the UK needs is hard Brexit, full bore, in the face at point-blank range. It will be utterly devastating, especially for all the lower-income types who were the most enthusiastic Brexit voters, but I'm out of patience with them - they need to suffer the consequences of their shortsightedness and wilful ignorance of just about every aspect of what they were voting for.
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Old Sep 4th 2017, 11:35 pm   #23
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Default Re: Brexit Negotiations

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Originally Posted by Eeyore View Post
I'm starting to form the opinion that what the UK needs is hard Brexit, full bore, in the face at point-blank range. It will be utterly devastating, especially for all the lower-income types who were the most enthusiastic Brexit voters, but I'm out of patience with them - they need to suffer the consequences of their shortsightedness and wilful ignorance of just about every aspect of what they were voting for.
Back with a bang Eeyore... though to be fair, it's just as likely that your parents are to blame, but hey - they'll not likely feel the effects.

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Old Sep 4th 2017, 11:44 pm   #24
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Default Re: Brexit Negotiations

Everybody stop being so negative, you are aware that in the last week the UK had the lawyers at the negotiations where they pointed out to the EU that legally there would be nothing forthcoming, and the anything we do give would be from our goodwill, which is why Barnier has been spluttering so much. They are buxxered and they know it.
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Old Sep 4th 2017, 11:47 pm   #25
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Default Re: Brexit Negotiations

The UK will I am sure give some good will money to insure good trade but frankly if they don't want to play they wont see anything and the french and the germans can fund the experiment...
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Old Sep 5th 2017, 12:08 am   #26
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Default Re: Brexit Negotiations

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Originally Posted by uk_grenada View Post
Everybody stop being so negative, you are aware that in the last week the UK had the lawyers at the negotiations where they pointed out to the EU that legally there would be nothing forthcoming, and the anything we do give would be from our goodwill, which is why Barnier has been spluttering so much. They are buxxered and they know it.
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Originally Posted by uk_grenada View Post
The UK will I am sure give some good will money to insure good trade but frankly if they don't want to play they wont see anything and the french and the germans can fund the experiment...
After April 2019 the UK owes nothing. It would be both morally correct and a significant goodwill gesture to pay up to the end of the 2014-2020 budget cycle to which we had already committed ourselves to before the referendum. That still leaves the EU with a hole of 10 billion Euros in a budget which has never been reduced. All the sound and fury from M. Barnier these last two weeks can be roughly translated as 'where's our blank cheque?'

To impose any kind of tariffs or regulatory barriers where there are none currently will only hurt both sides economically. Politically however, in the words of M. Juncker, 'Brexit cannot be a success' otherwise another half a dozen other member states will want to follow us out of the door. The split between what the EU wants and what member states want is widening rapidly as it was always going to. France has already proposed that trade negotiations can start without a final settlement providing the UK accepts a three year transition period after April 2019 which would solve the EU's immediate budget crisis.
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Old Sep 5th 2017, 12:28 am   #27
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Default Re: Brexit Negotiations

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Originally Posted by Eeyore View Post
In other words "We won by lying to the British public that the EU would roll over and allow us to cherry-pick everything about EU membership we wanted and drop everything we didn't. Obviously that was always just a fantasy, but because reality is now starting to intrude and all those issues we hand-waved as Project Fear are beginning to bite, we really need you to pull magical solutions to incredibly complex problems out of your arses, because frankly we've got nothing".

I'm starting to form the opinion that what the UK needs is hard Brexit, full bore, in the face at point-blank range. It will be utterly devastating, especially for all the lower-income types who were the most enthusiastic Brexit voters, but I'm out of patience with them - they need to suffer the consequences of their shortsightedness and wilful ignorance of just about every aspect of what they were voting for.
Ironically we already had that. We had loads of opt-outs and a rebate on things like currency and borders. We had what the Germans called Special Sausage, but it still wasn't enough for the rabid right of the Tory party. Did we really expect the EU to roll over and let us tickle their tummies?
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Old Sep 5th 2017, 4:51 am   #28
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Default Re: Brexit Negotiations

So how does the EU actually work out the sum of money the UK owes them?? Is it from historical accounts, if so to be bona fide accounts they would have to be Audited and signed off as correct....when was the EU`s accounts last audited and signed off as correct, that is without fault??? I think the answer is that they have never had proper without fault audited accounts, so any demands that they make are complete and utter fantasy, figures plucked out of thin air as they cannot substantiate any claims whatsoever.
Personally I believe that initially the UK will struggle, but eventually it will do what it has to in order to get it`s house in order, there are certain parts of the EU set up that will be missed, but there are lots that will not!
So my take on it is tell them to shove their final bill where the monkey shoves it`s nuts, and walk away with the indignant squawking by the federalist idiots that hate us anyway!!
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Old Sep 5th 2017, 7:49 am   #29
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Default Re: Brexit Negotiations

More examples of the crazy delusion that got us here....

The UK contribution to the EU budget is far less significant for the EU than the UK's ability to maintain free trade with the EU is for the UK. If there is a hard Brexit and the UK pays nothing the EU will cope easily. Without free trade with Europe significant swathes of British business will perish. That's the plain and simple fact

As for the Brexit divorce bill, again it is a completely ignored fact that the UK obtains a large number of government services through the EU which it would otherwise have to provide for itself. And indeed the cost to the UK for doing those things for itself post-Brexit was something that seems to have been completely ignored. There are a lot of arcane but essential civil service activities involved which are more efficiently performed by one centralised EU office (at least in principle). Perhaps the most relevant one for the immediate future is management of external trade.

The argument over the divorce bill is largely about what period of expenditure and benefit should be covered. Telling the EU to "go whistle" is as enlightened a strategy as we have come to expect from this bunch of nincompoops: Davis, Fox & Johnson - sounds like a bunch of ambulance chasers just without the compassion and ruthless effectiveness...

And this audit thing is another UKIP straw man distraction like the 5 presidents - meaningless and irrelevant but sounds momentarily compelling. When was the last set of audited full UK government accounts that you saw?


Quote:
Originally Posted by BritInParis View Post
After April 2019 the UK owes nothing. It would be both morally correct and a significant goodwill gesture to pay up to the end of the 2014-2020 budget cycle to which we had already committed ourselves to before the referendum. That still leaves the EU with a hole of 10 billion Euros in a budget which has never been reduced. All the sound and fury from M. Barnier these last two weeks can be roughly translated as 'where's our blank cheque?'

To impose any kind of tariffs or regulatory barriers where there are none currently will only hurt both sides economically. Politically however, in the words of M. Juncker, 'Brexit cannot be a success' otherwise another half a dozen other member states will want to follow us out of the door. The split between what the EU wants and what member states want is widening rapidly as it was always going to. France has already proposed that trade negotiations can start without a final settlement providing the UK accepts a three year transition period after April 2019 which would solve the EU's immediate budget crisis.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dubaiexile View Post
So how does the EU actually work out the sum of money the UK owes them?? Is it from historical accounts, if so to be bona fide accounts they would have to be Audited and signed off as correct....when was the EU`s accounts last audited and signed off as correct, that is without fault??? I think the answer is that they have never had proper without fault audited accounts, so any demands that they make are complete and utter fantasy, figures plucked out of thin air as they cannot substantiate any claims whatsoever.
Personally I believe that initially the UK will struggle, but eventually it will do what it has to in order to get it`s house in order, there are certain parts of the EU set up that will be missed, but there are lots that will not!
So my take on it is tell them to shove their final bill where the monkey shoves it`s nuts, and walk away with the indignant squawking by the federalist idiots that hate us anyway!!

Last edited by Miss Ann Thrope; Sep 5th 2017 at 8:09 am.
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Old Sep 5th 2017, 8:25 am   #30
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Default Re: Brexit Negotiations

Quote:
Originally Posted by Miss Ann Thrope View Post
More examples of the crazy delusion that got us here....

The UK contribution to the EU budget is far less significant for the EU than the UK's ability to maintain free trade with the EU is for the UK. If there is a hard Brexit and the UK pays nothing the EU will cope easily. Without free trade with Europe significant swathes of British business will perish. That's the plain and simple fact

As for the Brexit divorce bill, again it is a completely ignored fact that the UK obtains a large number of government services through the EU which it would otherwise have to provide for itself. And indeed the cost to the UK for doing those things for itself post-Brexit was something that seems to have been completely ignored. There are a lot of arcane but essential civil service activities involved which are more efficiently performed by one centralised EU office (at least in principle). Perhaps the most relevant one for the immediate future is management of external trade.

The argument over the divorce bill is largely about what period of expenditure and benefit should be covered. Telling the EU to "go whistle" is as enlightened a strategy as we have come to expect from this bunch of nincompoops: Davis, Fox & Johnson - sounds like a bunch of ambulance chasers just without the compassion and ruthless effectiveness...

And this audit thing is another UKIP straw man distraction like the 5 presidents - meaningless and irrelevant but sounds momentarily compelling. When was the last set of audited full UK government accounts that you saw?
I'd be reluctant to post on the top of politics as it tends to get people annoyed and offended but I totally agree with the above post.
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