1.26 and falling

Old Oct 12th 2016, 9:49 am
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Default Re: 1.26 and falling

Originally Posted by Millhouse
High-tech truly global manufactures in the UK will be benefit
Here's hoping

The state of affairs in the UK could do with some positives, less it devolves into a globally insignificant subjectified union destined for a break up and relative reduction in living standards.
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Old Oct 12th 2016, 9:59 am
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Default Re: 1.26 and falling

Originally Posted by KJinDoha
Here's hoping

The state of affairs in the UK could do with some positives, less it devolves into a globally insignificant subjectified union destined for a break up and relative reduction in living standards.
Well that might also happen, but I doubt it - given that everyone else is starting to go down the protectionism route too.

I saw yesterday that while GDP growth in the UK has been one of the highest in the EU for a while, GDP per capita growth was some of the lowest and even behind Spain.

Think about that... it means two things (i) we grew richer a lot slower than everyone else, (ii) our economic growth was driven mostly my imported labour expansion.

As GDP also includes internal consumption, this is a very poor position to be in. Some export growth due to a low currency will do us well.
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Old Oct 12th 2016, 12:15 pm
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Default Re: 1.26 and falling

Question for Millhouse:

There's talks in the papers that certain banks are saying if the UK doesn't retain access to the single market then they would transfer some staff - not to the EU - but to places like New York.

Can you explain that for me? I can understand transferring staff to the EU for passporting reasons but why New York? Or any other non-EU city? What kind of staff would be affected? It's all a bit byzantine to me.
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Old Oct 12th 2016, 12:22 pm
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Default Re: 1.26 and falling

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH
Question for Millhouse:

There's talks in the papers that certain banks are saying if the UK doesn't retain access to the single market then they would transfer some staff - not to the EU - but to places like New York.

Can you explain that for me? I can understand transferring staff to the EU for passporting reasons but why New York? Or any other non-EU city? What kind of staff would be affected? It's all a bit byzantine to me.
I wish I could explain that one.

If passporting rights are lost, then you'd have to move bankers to Europe - not NY. It won't happen though - no one in their right mind would even think of moving their staff to the EU (inflexible labour laws, bonus caps, language issues etc) and the euro-work will still happen in London.

I can only imagine that they are thinking that if London becomes a backwater, then they will move their people to NY. A decision they were probably going to do anyway - That said, if the currency stays this weak, then it may also make sense to keep them in London.
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Old Oct 12th 2016, 12:37 pm
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Default Re: 1.26 and falling

So it's likely an example of irrational overreaction? I wouldn't be surprised if it partly has to do with the extraordinarily high COL in London and NYC is now somewhat cheaper, and the bankers are using this as an excuse.

Personally, I don't mind if the City takes a bit of a hit. It has disproportionate influence over the rest of the UK and a slight weakening of the City's influence and wealth will (ideally) cause the country to bolster other industries (manufacturing). Never good to have too many eggs in one basket.

Originally Posted by Millhouse
I wish I could explain that one.

If passporting rights are lost, then you'd have to move bankers to Europe - not NY. It won't happen though - no one in their right mind would even think of moving their staff to the EU (inflexible labour laws, bonus caps, language issues etc) and the euro-work will still happen in London.

I can only imagine that they are thinking that if London becomes a backwater, then they will move their people to NY. A decision they were probably going to do anyway - That said, if the currency stays this weak, then it may also make sense to keep them in London.
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Old Oct 12th 2016, 12:39 pm
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Default Re: 1.26 and falling

Originally Posted by DXBtoDOH
So it's likely an example of irrational overreaction? I wouldn't be surprised if it partly has to do with the extraordinarily high COL in London and NYC is now somewhat cheaper, and the bankers are using this as an excuse.
More like positioning and threats to get what they want later (which will be tax breaks and easy regulation).

COL in UK has dropped significantly in most bank's reporting currency.
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Old Oct 12th 2016, 12:47 pm
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Default Re: 1.26 and falling

Originally Posted by Millhouse
I wish I could explain that one.

If passporting rights are lost, then you'd have to move bankers to Europe - not NY. It won't happen though - no one in their right mind would even think of moving their staff to the EU (inflexible labour laws, bonus caps, language issues etc) and the euro-work will still happen in London.

I can only imagine that they are thinking that if London becomes a backwater, then they will move their people to NY. A decision they were probably going to do anyway - That said, if the currency stays this weak, then it may also make sense to keep them in London.
The papers were full this week of Brexit costing the UK £66 billion a year which interestingly is the exact amount the city of lLondon paid in taxes in 2015

Coincidence?

£ starting to slide again

Last edited by lightandbitter2; Oct 12th 2016 at 12:49 pm.
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Old Oct 12th 2016, 12:47 pm
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Default Re: 1.26 and falling

Originally Posted by Millhouse
Well that might also happen, but I doubt it - given that everyone else is starting to go down the protectionism route too.

I saw yesterday that while GDP growth in the UK has been one of the highest in the EU for a while, GDP per capita growth was some of the lowest and even behind Spain.

Think about that... it means two things (i) we grew richer a lot slower than everyone else, (ii) our economic growth was driven mostly my imported labour expansion.


As GDP also includes internal consumption, this is a very poor position to be in. Some export growth due to a low currency will do us well.

or it could mean that the GDP was growing but the large levels of immigration meant that it was forcing down the level of GDP per capita. So it could be argued that too many immigrants were adding too little to the GDP.
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Old Oct 12th 2016, 12:51 pm
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Default Re: 1.26 and falling

Originally Posted by Millhouse
I wish I could explain that one.

If passporting rights are lost, then you'd have to move bankers to Europe - not NY. It won't happen though - no one in their right mind would even think of moving their staff to the EU (inflexible labour laws, bonus caps, language issues etc) and the euro-work will still happen in London.

I can only imagine that they are thinking that if London becomes a backwater, then they will move their people to NY. A decision they were probably going to do anyway - That said, if the currency stays this weak, then it may also make sense to keep them in London.
before the Brexit vote all the banks were talking about moving staff out of the UK if the EU Financial transaction taxes come into force. With the UK out of the way the EU federalists will no doubt push those taxes through.
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Old Oct 12th 2016, 1:16 pm
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Default Re: 1.26 and falling

1.217 and sliding.

The whole world is short sterling, the manipulators have got their teeth into this and barring any policy change or BoE interest rate play this will go 1.15 at least.

Shouldn't compare but we are now on the cusp of £10 a pint here.

Oh and that 500 dirham note in your pocket is now worth 111 quid !!!!!
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Old Oct 12th 2016, 1:21 pm
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Default Re: 1.26 and falling

100 quid is 450 aed! Ouch! 30 mins is now over 200 quid!!!!
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Old Oct 12th 2016, 1:22 pm
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Default Re: 1.26 and falling

Originally Posted by lightandbitter2
now on the cusp of £10 a pint here.
£ per pint has always been my yardstick. After a few I'm not capable of recognise the value of QAR/AED.

Originally Posted by lightandbitter2
policy change or BoE interest rate play
A rate rise?
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Old Oct 12th 2016, 1:23 pm
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Default Re: 1.26 and falling

Originally Posted by iggle
100 quid is 450 aed! Ouch! 30 mins is now over 200 quid!!!!
Tell him to speed up a bit Iggle
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Old Oct 12th 2016, 1:32 pm
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Default Re: 1.26 and falling

Originally Posted by KJinDoha
£ per pint has always been my yardstick. After a few I'm not capable of recognise the value of QAR/AED.



A rate rise?
They are going to have to do something. Whilst a weaker £ is desirable, any country seen to not be in charge of their own currency valuation is seen as high risk for investment.

A 0.25 rise would stop the speculators in their tracks. The country could cope with it, may even need it to head off upcoming inflation.

I am not talking about a Lamont style balls up.
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Old Oct 12th 2016, 1:33 pm
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Default Re: 1.26 and falling

Originally Posted by lightandbitter2
1.217 and sliding.

The whole world is short sterling, the manipulators have got their teeth into this and barring any policy change or BoE interest rate play this will go 1.15 at least.

Shouldn't compare but we are now on the cusp of £10 a pint here.

Oh and that 500 dirham note in your pocket is now worth 111 quid !!!!!
But currently up a touch over 1pct against the Euro on the day.
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