scot47

Clairvoyant ? Necromancer ?

holly_1948

Just watching geopolitical developments.

Editha

Such as? I'm intrigued.

holly_1948

There are all sorts of things, none of which is dispositive in isolation.
There clearest indication that something is fundamentally wrong with the way the world turns is that Germany was unable to recover more than a tiny fraction of its 2500tonnes of gold metal held outside Germany despite 15 months (and counting) of trying. Any explanation other than that gold is not physically where it is supposed to be is unconvincing.

Editha

Wow! I thought you were going to mention climate change or Russian revanchism.

holly_1948

But back to the NHS. Or rather NHSes of England, Wales, Scotland, NI -
I realise it is glib and easy to say it will be changed beyond recognition in just a few years because of catastrophic changes to the world's financial and political systems - but I really think it will. And in less than 10 years, or less than 5. We are approaching a tipping point.

Editha

But you haven't explained why you think we are reaching a tipping point so soon, or the relevance of the German gold repatriation -- which seems like one of the more outré conspiracy theories around, to me.

bigglesworth

It is from Zerohedge.
But their translation from the German is .....less than accurate.

holly_1948

It's not of itself catastrophic, it is just a symptom that something is totally wrong. They asked for (from memory) 1200 of their 2400 tonnes held in USA to be repatriated. They were refused for technical reasons. So the asked if they could just inspect the gold where it lies, for audit purposes. They were refused but offered to inspect one sample bar, which they accepted. They were offered 300 tonnes over seven years, they accepted. But in the first year only 5 tonnes came from USA, though USA did buy some freshly mined gold and had it sent to Germany.

If is just too hard to believe that the explanation as to why they can't have their gold back is anything other than that it has been fraudulently converted or in some other way simply isn't there any more. I just don't buy that it is still sitting there, untouched, collecting dust, as it should be but they can't even see it let alone take delivery of it.

So if that symptom can't be explained away then what else lies below the surface?
Something is wrong is a big way somewhere. That's not to buy into the so-called zero hedge conspiracy theories, only that they asked for their gold and they aren't receiving it at a rate that would bring it all home in less than 25 years or more. I don't know what is wrong, I do know that something is wrong, and in a big way.
I've probably made some error in the numbers or timing but the principle remains, they have wanted their gold back for well over a year and they can't have it.
Germany also asked for its gold back from France and France complied.

Editha

And? Why does it matter? You haven't explained that. We are not on the gold standard.

Bud the Wiser

Past few posts have been off topic, but nonetheless, quite intriguing. On a personal level I'd like to read more, with links, if possible.

bigglesworth

BtW, here you go
http://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/articl...undesbank.html
zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-19/germany-has-recovered-paltry-5-tons-gold-ny-fed-after-one-year

Michael

A lot conspiracy theories but refuted by the Bundesbank.

http://www.bundesbank.de/Redaktion/E...e_handelsblatt

In fact, I'm not even sure why any central bank would want gold. It hasn't kept up with inflation, costs money for storage and security, and if it was put on the market, it would supply 31 years of the worlds need for gold. The main reason that gold has risen in price since 2000 is that Gold ETFs were introduced removing gold from the industrial market. In fact the GLD ETF is one of the top ten holders of gold (more than the Japanese central bank) all stored at the Federal Reserve.

Usually when a central bank sells gold, the price plunges since industrial use is only about 1,000 tons per year and more than that is mined yearly. So the idea that gold could have been sold by the Federal Reserve seems implausible since dumping it on the market except in very small amounts would close gold mines around the world. The main reason that gold has dropped from about $1,999 to $1,300 is that investors panicked when gold started dropping and many of the gold ETFs redeemed creation units putting gold back on the market (about 400 tons in 2013). If the ETFs didn't redeem the creation units, there would have been too many sellers and too few buyers driving gold down further.

bigglesworth

Michael - Spot on.

The conspiracy stuff seems to have started up again when gold had that little rally on the Ukraine.

The German stories I suspect are part and parcel of the ECB/Euro debate.

And few seem to understand the role the BIS plays in the monetary system, but see it as some vast international conspiracy.

holly_1948

It does not matter that they want their gold. It matters that, for whatever reason, they demanded part of their gold from the USA and were substantially refused, receiving only 2.5% of it of which only a tenth of that (5 tonnes) was shipped from the USA where more than half of it is supposed to be. It matters that the explanation for the refusal is not credible despite face saving attempts at cover up in both Germany and USA.

Anyway, back to the NHS. A stable future is largely out of the hands of government, the world is changing rapidly.