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UK Pound v's Euro

UK Pound v's Euro

Old Dec 22nd 2008, 8:08 pm
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Default Re: UK Pound v's Euro

Originally Posted by johnh009
Maybe stagnation is good?
There's nothing worse than a stagnation. A crisis is better because it prompts a reform while stagnation delays it.

Originally Posted by johnh009
The UK economy is expected to shrink by 2% in 2009.
And so is Germany - click on the link in the post above.

Originally Posted by johnh009
For a country where financial services form such a large part of the economy, following the American lead of deregulation has not served the UK well.
It served the UK exceptionally well. Back in 1990, the UK's GDP per capita was only about 60% that of Germany. Now it's higher than in Germany.

Originally Posted by johnh009
given the fall of the pound, another six months and they will have a major inflation problem to deal with.
After the Black Wednesday in 1992 the pound quickly fell from $2 to well below $1.50. However the inflation didn't go up. Exchange rate doesn't affect inflation that much.

There's no danger of any inflation any time soon. There's a danger of deflation.
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Old Dec 22nd 2008, 10:42 pm
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Default Re: UK Pound v's Euro

Saw on the news tonight that Southern Irelands shops are empty.
They are making the most of the situation and all going North to get more for there money this christmas

Wheres that map? i think a trip to Gib might be in order
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Old Dec 23rd 2008, 3:06 am
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Default Re: UK Pound v's Euro

Originally Posted by PubChampion
After the Black Wednesday in 1992 the pound quickly fell from $2 to well below $1.50. However the inflation didn't go up. Exchange rate doesn't affect inflation that much.
The Bank of England has already warned that food and energy costs will push inflation over the target figures for the next 18 months. According to this article, the UK would not even qualify to join the Euro currency but they do see some positives with a low pound and it may be a good time to buy, especially if it all goes pear-shaped in the Euro zone:

http://www.express.co.uk/money/view/...-with-the-euro

I am in Canada, hoping to take an early retirement in Portugal so I am hoping the Euro will go down, especially against the Canadian dollar. The problem is the Canadian dollar is pegged to oil so I also need oil to go up. I have a feeling I could be waiting a while, at least until the whole World economy improves.

Last edited by johnh009; Dec 23rd 2008 at 4:26 am.
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Old Dec 23rd 2008, 3:34 am
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Default Re: UK Pound v's Euro

Originally Posted by PubChampion
It served the UK exceptionally well. Back in 1990, the UK's GDP per capita was only about 60% that of Germany. Now it's higher than in Germany.
Not according to the IMF and the World Bank (for 2007):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...y_GDP_(nominal)

Last edited by johnh009; Dec 23rd 2008 at 3:42 am.
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Old Dec 23rd 2008, 9:44 am
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Default Re: UK Pound v's Euro

Looks like it has settled for the time being at around 1.03/1.05 to the UKP. Not sure which way it will go now, probably have to wait for the festive season to end.
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Old Dec 23rd 2008, 12:16 pm
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Default Re: UK Pound v's Euro

Originally Posted by johnh009
Do you think the German economy is propping up the Euro? Even in these troubled times they are still the World's largest exporter of goods.
Not just a prop, it is the spine of the eurozone.

We are going to see just how financially strong Germany really is. Their lux car biz is about to get the biggest stress test in its history. I read with shock recently that BMW self finance 50% of sales. They and Daimler are already in big trouble. The problem is that an economy dependent on high value exports cannot sustain itself during a global depression. When Peer Steinbrück gets the 2H 2008 figures for the big players he will sht his lederhosen and stop carping at Crash Gordon

Not that I am pleased one of Blighty's best neighbours is in as much trouble as we are. But I am a bit keen to see 1.15 or better for a quid and a crisis in the rich man of Europe might help that to happen.
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Old Dec 23rd 2008, 1:08 pm
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Default Re: UK Pound v's Euro

Originally Posted by johnh009
The Bank of England has already warned that food and energy costs will push inflation over the target figures for the next 18 months.
I don't think it's going to be 18 months. Energy costs are on their way down. Oil is slumping which means that food prices should drop next year.

Originally Posted by johnh009
I am in Canada, hoping to take an early retirement in Portugal so I am hoping the Euro will go down
You don't necessarily have to wait for the pound to improve. Renting is the way to go at the moment. It's always better to rent anyway before buying anything. Buying quickly, especially under pressure, is not good. Most people who buy quickly in a new country live to regret it.
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Old Dec 23rd 2008, 5:57 pm
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Default Re: UK Pound v's Euro

A government spokesman has confirmed that in order to meet the conditions for joining the Euro, the phrase 'spending a penny' is not to be used after the 31st December 2008. From this date the correct terminology will be 'euronating'.
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Old Dec 23rd 2008, 6:01 pm
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Default Re: UK Pound v's Euro

Originally Posted by brodev
A government spokesman has confirmed that in order to meet the conditions for joining the Euro, the phrase 'spending a penny' is not to be used after the 31st December 2008. From this date the correct terminology will be 'euronating'.
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Old Dec 29th 2008, 1:18 pm
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Default Re: UK Pound v's Euro

Originally Posted by PubChampion
You don't necessarily have to wait for the pound to improve. Renting is the way to go at the moment. It's always better to rent anyway before buying anything. Buying quickly, especially under pressure, is not good. Most people who buy quickly in a new country live to regret it.
Do you see a further downward pressure on the Portuguese property market and how much is this market influenced by the UK property market? I am looking mainly at Central Portugal and not the Algarve. From what I can see, the marketing of many homes is aimed at expats.

Here is an interesting article. It would be good for me if it transpired:

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/10/...ness/col30.php
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Old Dec 29th 2008, 3:09 pm
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Default Re: UK Pound v's Euro

Thanks for the link.

I think that in Portugal booms and busts are less sharp than in the US or UK. It's a socialist country, like France, Germany etc. The economy is stifled by high taxes and red tape. In good times it grows slower than US/UK/Canada, in bad times it slumps a bit less. This means that instead of a 15-25% drop in house prices you'd probably see 10-15%.

In any event, you should save more by buying right than playing the market. Prices vary a great deal throughout the country, and so do the climate/geography/other things. In order to make the right choice, one needs to explore different parts of the country BEFORE making the decision, not after.
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Old Dec 29th 2008, 4:08 pm
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Default Re: UK Pound v's Euro

Originally Posted by johnh009
Do you see a further downward pressure on the Portuguese property market and how much is this market influenced by the UK property market? I am looking mainly at Central Portugal and not the Algarve. From what I can see, the marketing of many homes is aimed at expats.

Here is an interesting article. It would be good for me if it transpired:

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/10/...ness/col30.php
This article is dated 30th Oct 2008 and a lot has gone on since then, in fact the USD has lost ground against the euro since then by about 20 cents.

I think you will find that the Portuguese housing market will keep the same prices (well the Portuguese will) as they might well feel that this current financial situation will eventually pass and they will still get the price they want. However, when you look at the non euro owners of houses and they want to sell then this is a different matter. Should the euro and the UKP become equal (and it is not far off - a couple of cents) then in a lot of cases what is on offer in Portugal is of a lesser standard then what is currently on offer in UK. It was okay a year or two ago when you could pick up a house in Portugal for 250,000 to 300,000 euros and it would only cost you 150,000 to 180,000 UKP, now the same house costs you that in UKP (or more depending on the rate and possible increase in house price).

Yes the EU countries are in a poor way to some degree, but if the media is anything to go by UK is doing worse (however, looking at the number of people shopping in UK - whats the problem?!)

PubChampion is right, do your homework first about where/what you buy, don't rush into things.
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Old Dec 29th 2008, 4:26 pm
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Default Re: UK Pound v's Euro

Spokesman for the Conferderation of Small Business yesterday said people in the shops after Christmas were only looking, not buying. There has been another high street chain going into administration today and one yesterday. Things are getting nasty - I should know my clients are motor manufacturers.
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Old Dec 29th 2008, 4:33 pm
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Default Re: UK Pound v's Euro

€501 cost me £500 today.
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Old Jan 1st 2009, 10:25 pm
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Default Re: UK Pound v's Euro

Even if I make myself some enemies with my first contribution here...

I would be in favour of the UK joining the euro zone. I mean, now the whole of British exports but also imports are affected by this exchange-rate dilemma. And I say it is a dilemma!

Because I fear the day the GBP goes under. And mind you the UK also imports from euro countries.

Within those countries, there is no currency disturbance... A Dutchman can buy his things in Germany or Belgium and will not note a difference.

No, that was Blair's biggest and most expensive mistake...

I tell you what: The Government has something to hide. That's why they keep the euro question under the rug....

There is more evil to come!!
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