NZ$ vs £
Mar 6th 2007, 11:40 am
#1
within Touching distance
Thread Starter
Joined: May 2006
Location: Huddersfield - Christchurch (2007?)
Posts: 87
NZ$ vs £
Old subject but close to my heart at present.
Paladin, as you are back from your recce can you give us your humble opinion on what the NZ$ may do in the next few months?
Last year I recall you predicting a level of $3.20 to the £ around March time?
It appears to have been hovering around $2.80 for a while now. Is it optimistic to expect it to shoot up given the current state of the world's ecomony (interest rates hikes in UK, Japan etc and the recent stock market slump) (haha I just wrote that and it sounds like I vaguely know what I am talking about....which I don't)
Given I may be about to convert my life savings in a couple of months a few words of wisdom would be appreciated, especially when every extra cent means NZ$1500 more
Of course if anyone else has an educated opinion I am all ears
Paladin, as you are back from your recce can you give us your humble opinion on what the NZ$ may do in the next few months?
Last year I recall you predicting a level of $3.20 to the £ around March time?
It appears to have been hovering around $2.80 for a while now. Is it optimistic to expect it to shoot up given the current state of the world's ecomony (interest rates hikes in UK, Japan etc and the recent stock market slump) (haha I just wrote that and it sounds like I vaguely know what I am talking about....which I don't)
Given I may be about to convert my life savings in a couple of months a few words of wisdom would be appreciated, especially when every extra cent means NZ$1500 more
Of course if anyone else has an educated opinion I am all ears
Mar 6th 2007, 3:15 pm
#2
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Apr 2005
Location: Eastbourne, Wellington!
Posts: 874
Re: NZ$ vs £
Old subject but close to my heart at present.
Paladin, as you are back from your recce can you give us your humble opinion on what the NZ$ may do in the next few months?
Last year I recall you predicting a level of $3.20 to the £ around March time?
It appears to have been hovering around $2.80 for a while now. Is it optimistic to expect it to shoot up given the current state of the world's ecomony (interest rates hikes in UK, Japan etc and the recent stock market slump) (haha I just wrote that and it sounds like I vaguely know what I am talking about....which I don't)
Given I may be about to convert my life savings in a couple of months a few words of wisdom would be appreciated, especially when every extra cent means NZ$1500 more
Of course if anyone else has an educated opinion I am all ears
Paladin, as you are back from your recce can you give us your humble opinion on what the NZ$ may do in the next few months?
Last year I recall you predicting a level of $3.20 to the £ around March time?
It appears to have been hovering around $2.80 for a while now. Is it optimistic to expect it to shoot up given the current state of the world's ecomony (interest rates hikes in UK, Japan etc and the recent stock market slump) (haha I just wrote that and it sounds like I vaguely know what I am talking about....which I don't)
Given I may be about to convert my life savings in a couple of months a few words of wisdom would be appreciated, especially when every extra cent means NZ$1500 more
Of course if anyone else has an educated opinion I am all ears
Looking at the charts I would say a break below $2.75 should be considered very bearish but a break above $2.90 ish you might want to let it run to see if the $3.06 gets retested. Again if $3.06 is then broken I'd still be looking for $3.20 area for sure. Problem you have is the price action recently is a consolidation phase so until it breaks one way or the other its a guess!!!
dave
Mar 9th 2007, 10:09 am
#3
within Touching distance
Thread Starter
Joined: May 2006
Location: Huddersfield - Christchurch (2007?)
Posts: 87
Re: NZ$ vs £
Thanks Dave
We are looking to complete the house sale in early may and move to NZ in early June.
The plan is to leave the money in UK acocunt until a favourable rate is attained. Hopefully it won't fluctuate much between now and then.
I cannot see me exchanging at $3.20 though, as even it if did reach that level, my bottle would have gone around the $3.05 mark and I would have already cashed in my chips!!
We are looking to complete the house sale in early may and move to NZ in early June.
The plan is to leave the money in UK acocunt until a favourable rate is attained. Hopefully it won't fluctuate much between now and then.
I cannot see me exchanging at $3.20 though, as even it if did reach that level, my bottle would have gone around the $3.05 mark and I would have already cashed in my chips!!
Mar 9th 2007, 1:54 pm
#4
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Apr 2005
Location: Eastbourne, Wellington!
Posts: 874
Re: NZ$ vs £
Thanks Dave
We are looking to complete the house sale in early may and move to NZ in early June.
The plan is to leave the money in UK acocunt until a favourable rate is attained. Hopefully it won't fluctuate much between now and then.
I cannot see me exchanging at $3.20 though, as even it if did reach that level, my bottle would have gone around the $3.05 mark and I would have already cashed in my chips!!
We are looking to complete the house sale in early may and move to NZ in early June.
The plan is to leave the money in UK acocunt until a favourable rate is attained. Hopefully it won't fluctuate much between now and then.
I cannot see me exchanging at $3.20 though, as even it if did reach that level, my bottle would have gone around the $3.05 mark and I would have already cashed in my chips!!
Dave
Mar 27th 2007, 7:37 am
#5
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Apr 2005
Location: Eastbourne, Wellington!
Posts: 874
Re: NZ$ vs £
The last time I did an analysis of the GBP/NZD pair I stated that for the uptrend to be confirmed we needed a close back above the recent highs in the $3.06 area. That didn't happen and what we have seen is a normal healthy consolidation after the long run up from $2.41 to $3.06. In fact it has virtually completed a 50% retracement which is very healthy. On the fundamentals i still see long term weakness for the NZD versus the GBP but time frame is a guessing game!
Looking at the charts I would say a break below $2.75 should be considered very bearish but a break above $2.90 ish you might want to let it run to see if the $3.06 gets retested. Again if $3.06 is then broken I'd still be looking for $3.20 area for sure. Problem you have is the price action recently is a consolidation phase so until it breaks one way or the other its a guess!!!
Dave
Looking at the charts I would say a break below $2.75 should be considered very bearish but a break above $2.90 ish you might want to let it run to see if the $3.06 gets retested. Again if $3.06 is then broken I'd still be looking for $3.20 area for sure. Problem you have is the price action recently is a consolidation phase so until it breaks one way or the other its a guess!!!
Dave
The support level at $2.75 has pretty much broken down!!! Price is currently ~ $2.74 at the long term 50% fibonacci retracement, with upside resistance at ~ $2.8500 from a major down trendline. At the very most i don't expect anything above $2.82, where there are 2 fibonacci lines converging, for a good while - sorry!
Where next?
The next major support area, if $2.74 breaks down, is a previous high close in the $2.72 area BUT the weekly chart now shows a convergence of a 127% fibonacci extension and a 62% fib retracement at ~$2.6650 !!
This convergence area will be a major target for the investment banks currency traders so hold onto your hats for a bumpy ride!!!
Dave
Last edited by Paladin; Mar 27th 2007 at 8:01 am.
Mar 27th 2007, 8:45 am
#6
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Nov 2006
Location: Whitby Wellington
Posts: 2,440
Re: NZ$ vs £
OK - sorry everyone but I have to be the bearer of bad news!!
The support level at $2.75 has pretty much broken down!!! Price is currently ~ $2.74 at the long term 50% fibonacci retracement, with upside resistance at ~ $2.8500 from a major down trendline. At the very most i don't expect anything above $2.82, where there are 2 fibonacci lines converging, for a good while - sorry!
Where next?
The next major support area, if $2.74 breaks down, is a previous high close in the $2.72 area BUT the weekly chart now shows a convergence of a 127% fibonacci extension and a 62% fib retracement at ~$2.6650 !!
This convergence area will be a major target for the investment banks currency traders so hold onto your hats for a bumpy ride!!!
Dave
The support level at $2.75 has pretty much broken down!!! Price is currently ~ $2.74 at the long term 50% fibonacci retracement, with upside resistance at ~ $2.8500 from a major down trendline. At the very most i don't expect anything above $2.82, where there are 2 fibonacci lines converging, for a good while - sorry!
Where next?
The next major support area, if $2.74 breaks down, is a previous high close in the $2.72 area BUT the weekly chart now shows a convergence of a 127% fibonacci extension and a 62% fib retracement at ~$2.6650 !!
This convergence area will be a major target for the investment banks currency traders so hold onto your hats for a bumpy ride!!!
Dave
Mar 27th 2007, 8:47 am
#7
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Oct 2006
Location: NZ
Posts: 3,366
Re: NZ$ vs £
[quote=simonmarkellis;4566272]I'm sorry, but in english what does this mean?
quote]
We're b**llcked!!!!
Just as we're about to complete on our house too
quote]
We're b**llcked!!!!
Just as we're about to complete on our house too
Mar 27th 2007, 8:57 am
#8
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Apr 2005
Location: Eastbourne, Wellington!
Posts: 874
Mar 27th 2007, 9:01 am
#9
within Touching distance
Thread Starter
Joined: May 2006
Location: Huddersfield - Christchurch (2007?)
Posts: 87
Re: NZ$ vs £
Looks like my £££'s will be earning UK interest for a while then. This does mean renting in NZ for a while also
c'est la vie
Thanks for the heads up Dave - even though I didn't really want to hear it. I had noticed the sudden downturn in the NZ$ but hoped it was just a blip
c'est la vie
Thanks for the heads up Dave - even though I didn't really want to hear it. I had noticed the sudden downturn in the NZ$ but hoped it was just a blip
Mar 27th 2007, 10:22 am
#11
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Apr 2005
Location: Eastbourne, Wellington!
Posts: 874
Mar 27th 2007, 10:23 am
#12
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Apr 2005
Location: Eastbourne, Wellington!
Posts: 874
Re: NZ$ vs £
or Silver!! 
Mar 27th 2007, 10:24 am
#13
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Apr 2005
Location: Eastbourne, Wellington!
Posts: 874
Re: NZ$ vs £
or Oil!!
Mar 27th 2007, 10:24 am
#14
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Apr 2005
Location: Eastbourne, Wellington!
Posts: 874
Re: NZ$ vs £
or Uranium!!
Mar 27th 2007, 10:24 am
#15
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Apr 2005
Location: Beachlands, East Auckland
Posts: 2,957