andy1133

I've worked in the forex markets in a former life and I'd certainly advise now is the time to move $ to £. It's probably one of the best times in history!

For those wanting to move money to NZ I'd say do everything you can to hold off.

We are in a perfect storm situation of £ uncertainty versus $ stability. The NZ economy is built on dairy and tourism, two pretty future proof sectors in my opinion. The demand from the Chinese and Indian middle classes for dairy alone could sustain NZ for a good while. Tourism is only going to grow, again driven by the huge middle classes from the above two. NZ is unique as a tourist destination and will remain so.

The Auckland housing bubble, like London, Sydney etc is not going to burst in my opinion. If it did then the $ might fall.

Not the most insightful or helpful post, so apologies for that. If anyone is looking at emigrating in the next few years and worried about exchange rates, then I'd start to dripfeed £s into $, not right now, but within a month or so of Article 50 being launched. There are numerous NZD accounts available offshore to facilitate this. It's a method I am using.

Charismatic

A group of EU countries have also said they'll veto any deal that allows common market access but limits the ability of their citizens to work in the UK.


It'll be interesting to see what the UK counters with. Obviously the UK wants common market access so they'll need a carrot to bring the remaining countries into line (i.e. Those that presently see freedom of movement as preferential to market access into the UK or just view the two as linked.) It doesn't so much matter what the EU itself thinks but each nation that's a participant does get a veto. It'll be interesting to see how the UK handles this, clearly they don't want to get into a situation of haggling on every line item because that would take years but the hard liners don't want a Brexit Lite either.

Kotare

Sensibly IMO the UK would just say goodbye and we will play by WTO rules until we can get tariff agreements, sector by sector if necessary. It would be equally painful to the UK and EU, but the EU would rush to tarriff free agreements in areas like automotive etc.

If the UK wants control of immigration, no contribution to EU funds and repatriation of fisheries rights and so forth there is no conceivable way they will retain the existing non tariff access given potential vetos by 27 countries . They will still be negotiating in 2020 but that might be what May wants :-)

bourbon-biscuit

I think it is. Brexit voters thought it would be possible to leave the EU while keeping the stuff that suits. It's not; the rest of the EU won't let that happen, understandably. Now a dangerous game has to be played of balancing off public anger (which will be vocal but a minority and probably a shirinking one has time passes) if Brexit does not happen or does not happen fast enough against trying very hard to get a Brexit which looks like a Brexit but is actually not so very much because enough time has passed that enough people have grown ambivalent at best. For example, be seen to be tough on immigration and ambivalence toward Brexit will grow. It's all grubby.

The sad thing really is the amount of money that will be wasted on this process while other more important issues are sidelined.

Charismatic

I think that the EU where very clear on what a Brexit would mean and that there couldn't be any "special deal" for the UK. They've perhaps been more up front by encouraging the UK to file the paperwork so arrangements can be made.

The UK now needs to hire a lot more civil servants and consultants to put in place it's own legislation ASAP. It's a huge task over the next few years, parliament will simply not have time to debate that volume of legislation so new guidelines will need to be issued to the civil service.

Charismatic

Looking at what the PM indicated a "hard" Brexit appears likely and on a tight timeline. Seems risky given more than half of those who supported Brexit thought the UK would retain single market access.

I don't understand the "great repeal bill" yet, does this mean that UK will defer to historic EU mandates at the time of the bill passing (Ctrl+C and then Ctrl+V) or current EU mandates?

Also could electing a pro-EU gubbermint change that course?

Kotare

Risky to whom - if the Commons (or Lords more likely) don't support her - new election - probably a landslide given the state of Labour.

They have implied that a hard Brexit would be loosely based on WTO trade rules - existing rules/regs stand until changed/repealed. All the Repeal Bill does is remove EU primacy at that point.

Where do you see this pro EU govt coming from - the last poll suggested more Brexiteers (especially as he economy hasn't collapsed as predicted (yet) . :-)

LittleGreyCat

As we haven't left the EU yet we are still trading to the same rules, so we won't be seeing much impact apart from a few nervous individuals.
The crunch time will be two years after Article 50 has been invoked when all the existing trading agreements with the EU or with EU trade partners (which is just about the whole world) are likely to be cancelled.

That is the point (too late) when we start to realise what the implications of Brexit are.

Of course, nobody knows what the eventual outcome will be.

Which shows just how ill-informed the vote was on both sides.

I can't help thinking the the right wing Tories deliberately sabotaged the Remain vote so they could get rid of all the pesky EU regulations and let the bankers and other financiers run wild.

Interesting times, especially since Merkel and the Bundesbank (central drivers for the EU and the Euro) both seem to be heading for deep trouble at the moment.

It could turn out that the UK did the right thing for completely the wrong reasons.

I don't think we will even begin to understand the implications for another 2-3 years.

Kotare

Commentators all seem to think that economic drivers were the important factor, whereas as I consider (from a distance) that the EU democratic deficit/desire for national sovereignty were paramount (despite the financial risks). Which is why May etc can't run with Brexit Lite given the EU won't play.

Man does not live by bread (or the exchange rate) alone :-)

Charismatic

I'm definitely no Tory but I doubt this, most banks backed remain due to single market access and financial services passporting. The last thing London based banks wanted is is the expense of moving Euro clearing into the EU.

As for Article 50 and trade, who knows? Perhaps we'll get some quality early deals done and perhaps countries will wait it out thinking any deal will get better if the UK gets desperate.

Charismatic

Theresa's speech gave a nice little bump to the NZD/GBP even if weaker milk price auctions have held it back against other currencies.

LittleGreyCat

If it goes over 1.85 to the pound I may feel constrained to support her.

[Anonymously, of course.]

Kotare

Considering I got 2.40 last year (and I thought that bad) you are selling yourself very cheaply :-)

LittleGreyCat

Look back over 5 years.

$2.40 was a wonderful aberration possibly brought on by the Bank of England pretending that it was going to raise interest rates.

Not complaining - we had a much cheaper holiday in Australia and NZ whilst the rate was pumped up.

However over the long term anything over 1.9 is looking amazingly good.

As for selling myself cheaply - there seems to be a continuous supply of ordure impacting on the revolving ventilation appliance and we haven't even invoked Article 50 yet. $Deity alone knows what is going to happen in the next couple of years.

[Cue memories of Stingray. from about 30 seconds in. "Anything can happen in the next half hour" and all the buildings diving for the basement.]

So I think my rather jaded charms are priced quite reasonably under the circumstances.

Kotare

It depends on your timeframe, my last time in NZ in 2006—9 the rate was fluctuating from 2.7 to 3.0 (from memory) and it was well over 2.0 most of last year. Since the late 20's the UK has been deliberately devaluing the £ and the $ has wild swings due to commodity prices etc - I could do with one of the latter for a month :-)