The Dean

I might move back to Dubai one day, but I'm waiting until landlords start paying tenants to live in their properties, which can't be too far away..............

http://business.maktoob.com/20090000...er/Article.htm

Millhouse

Oh happy days...

Ethos83

It's going to drop 15-20% by the end of the year. Hoping for more, of course.

soukie

Let's hope Abu Dhabi follows the same pattern - heard of lots of people leaving but it's that time of year again.

Patsy Stoned

Am I reading this right? Does he say that Villa prices will drop more than Apartments? I hope so :-)

Increased supply from the residential sector will see a further drop in lease rates. However, the effect would be higher on villas than apartments," it said in the report.

Millhouse

I think it will. There is also a huge supply coming very soon - even better some of it will be held by non nationals which means they will be happy to rent out at a loss if needed.

Norm_uk

When is "very soon" likely to be would you say?

Millhouse

Well, Sun & Sky are due this month. I was told by an agent to wait until after July as that is when the bulk of some of the other new stuff being built comes in.

Norm_uk

Interesting. I'm looking to move in July...perhaps I'll just look for a flat share or room on the cheap for a while and hold on a while longer before getting my own pad if prices are going to drop.

Millhouse

I would say the prices will only come down once the private buyers are being forced to let out. I know people with several units on reem. They cannot afford to hold these and will take any rent when these are done (even below cost is better than nothing)

Ethos83

My instinct is that we will see a small drop by September, but the big bulk will happen in October/November.

A lot of landlords will hold out hoping to catch some of the annual migration into Dubai that generally begins in August/September. When the numbers fail to materialise, landlords will start panicking and the more desperate ones will offer fire sale prices, triggering a rental decline run. The sheer fact that more people are leaving than coming in can easily be detected in the sharing market - several people I know who have great apartments in the Marina or villas in Jumeria and Al Barsha are having horrendous times finding someone to move in despite discounting the rent. A big change from two years ago when a single advert for a maid's room in the Marina at 5,000 would get a hundred inquiries.

Norm_uk

Right, so I'll do my "anyone got a spare room on the cheap?" bit until Oktoberfest then start looking seriously for my austin powers shag pad complete with fireplace and lava lamps.

BurpusMe

Business Bay/Downtown/SZR is so massively oversupplied you can name the price in nearly any building. We just took a nice place on SZR for more than 50% off peak prices.

Remote areas like Discovery Gardens have 1BRs for 40K and less – and they still aren't full!!

I know private a landlord who has 150K of mortgage and maintenance payments against the AED 55K they're able to get from tenants. From what I know - this is the norm.

Nothing is happening in the market to reverse this trend.
No bottom in sight!

Millhouse

Interesting. I viewed a business bay place at the weekend and he wanted 210k for it. I smiled and said... how full is the tower? He said, oh pretty good - we are nearly 40% occupied.

Ethos83

210? That's expensive for Business Bay. 210 is the asking rent for a 3 bed + maid's in the Burj Residences overlooking the Dubai Mall lake (in Downtown Burj Dubai, ahem, Khalifa, which is separate from Business Bay according to real estate terminology and the ever so clever refusal to allow a direct road access between Emaar's beloved Downtown and the rest of Business Bay).

3 bed + maids in Executive Towers are around 100K.