not2old

Next Federal election set for October 2019.

With the new NDP leader in place, would Trudeau...

a) call an early election?

b) not run the next time round?

c) know he will be re-elected?

d) sweet talk the conservatives?

Former Lancastrian

I vote (c). Nobody big enough to challenge him yet. The NDP have never been in power and everybody is still trying to forget Harper from a PC leader.

dave_j

Dangermouse.. with Penfold as Foregn Secretary.

Shard

C.

bats

I don't think it's certain he will be re-elected at all. If Wynne's unpopularity continues and this tax bill goes through then he will have a struggle.

magnumpi

Also don't look good for the PM when refugees are coming out of the dark as terrorists. He just got to hope there is only the one

Shakyuk

I may have this wrong, but as an outsider sat in the UK, it seems Trudeau spends more time jetting around the world and attending photo shoots than actually doing anything in Canada? He seems more like a smiley poster boy than a politician.

macadian

A most astute evaluation from afar. Don't forget his nice hair!

Shard

Jealous?

BristolUK

He certainly has his picture taken a lot.

But since he's apparently not actually "doing anything" one assumes he'll be free of criticism for the changes that happen during his time as PM because he had nothing to do with it. Unless, of course, one just wants to blindly criticise anything and everything.

Partially discharged

Perfect summation. All shiny teeth and rainbows and unicorns.

No, Trudeau didn't photobomb those prom kids - Macleans.ca

macadian

Of his hair? Most certainly!

Oakvillian

C.

Andrew Scheer is a complete non-entity - he makes Harper look charismatic, which is quite the achievement. I can't see that he will ever appeal to those beyond the die-hard social-conservative base that elected him leader.

Jagmeet Singh is a very astute politician and could well lead the NDP to recover some of the Orange Wave they lost in the last election, but I suspect that will be at the expense of Conservative votes rather than Liberal support.

My prediction for October 2019 is that Trudeau will win with around the same majority (40-ish) that he has now. NDP to pick up around 30 seats putting them at 70 or so; Cons will lose around 25 putting them into third place; the Bloc will lose at least half of their current 10 seats.

carcajou

According to Angus Reid - Trudeau's approval rating is 43% and his disapproval rating is 47%. 45% want a change of government while 34% don't. Not a certainty that he will be re-elected at all. He does seem like an empty suit who governs based on what's trending on Facebook.

Two years is an eternity in politics and fairly foolish to try and make predictions now. He could regain popularity or continue to sink to the point that he's removed as leader and someone else is Prime Minister by the next election.

Oakvillian

I don't think so. Wynne's continuing unpopularity is irrelevant outside Ontario - and while ON is important to the Libs (they won 80 of 121 seats last time) they also swept Atlantic Canada and the Territories, which don't give a fig about Ontario provincial politics.

And I have a feeling the tax bill will be old news by October 2019. Sure, the Tories will try to raise it as a stick to beat the Libs with, but (apart from a few complainy doctors, who I don't think command very much in the way of public sympathy) most considered commentary seems to think the tax bill is generally a good thing. It closes a loophole which currently tips the playing field unfairly in favour of those who incorporate simply to use the corporation as a vehicle to avoid tax on investment returns paid as personal income; at the same time it maintains the tax breaks for those who use corporate investment income to reinvest in the business. That seems pretty sensible to me.