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June 8th poll

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Old May 31st 2017, 1:51 pm
  #76  
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Default Re: June 8th poll

Originally Posted by Jingsamichty
This is a party who held a totally unnecessary EU referendum in order to deal with an internal party schism. Now, we are being told to accept the referendum result and move on, despite the fact that for 40 years half the Conservative Party didn't accept that the majority of the UK had voted us INTO the EEC.

Theresa May promised not to hold an election, and changed her mind at the first opportunistic whiff. Boris Johnson is a proven liar, multiple times over, yet May made him Foreign Secretary. They ARE liars, and in my view beyond compare because they need you to forget their lies and ask for your trust to deliver something neither of them believe in.
Doesn't that rather depend upon how you define unnecessary? If it was unnecessary, how come Brexit has happened?
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Old May 31st 2017, 1:53 pm
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Default Re: June 8th poll

Originally Posted by Jingsamichty
Has anybody looked at the Daily Mail online site? The hysterical abuse and hatred that Corbyn is getting in the Mail is truly shocking. It is beyond propaganda now, it really is actively trying to influence the election.
Hasn't the same happened every time an election has been called?

Do you not remember the "will the last person to leave please turn out the lights" campaign against Kinnock?
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Old May 31st 2017, 1:55 pm
  #78  
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Default Re: June 8th poll

Originally Posted by Shard
Spot on.

May's reaction and handling of the Brexit decision is incomprehensible. If she was a confirmed Eurosceptic, taking a hardline post referendum would have some consistency, but she wasn't. Instead, her lack of imagination, and overall headmistress persona is resulting in bizarre appointments and feverish commitment to a hard Brexit in the name of a flawed referendum. She is a farce, and she seems intent on leading Britain down a farcical path.
Could you please explain to me how a so-called "soft" Brexit is any different to membership of the EU, but without a seat at the table?
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Old May 31st 2017, 2:41 pm
  #79  
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Default Re: June 8th poll

Originally Posted by Shard
Perhaps the 1000:1 is the 'astronomical odds'? In any case, as the odds get longer, it signals to the punter how blindingly unlikely the event is and so would probably dissuade him to place the bet. Shortening the odds creates a false signal that there is a possibility.
That's one argument, but people still buy lottery tickets and the probability of winning isn't.. well.. good, in fact it's the value of the prize that attracts the gullible.
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Old May 31st 2017, 3:19 pm
  #80  
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Default Re: June 8th poll

Is this the end of May?
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Old May 31st 2017, 3:29 pm
  #81  
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Default Re: June 8th poll

Brexit hasn't happened yet.
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Old May 31st 2017, 11:00 pm
  #82  
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Default Re: June 8th poll

Originally Posted by JonboyE
Is this the end of May?
Boom Boom.

Tomorrow is the start of June.

But probably the end of Corbyn.
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Old Jun 2nd 2017, 9:47 am
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Default Re: June 8th poll

Perhaps not!
Polls are being disregarded by the electronic media as being useless - having got it totally wrong in 2015, for the referendum and even Trump. Their methodolgy is suspect IPSOS only count the views of those who voted last time but YouGov accept that with 2 million 'new voters' signing up in the last month they may have an effect (and they are mostly younger ones who felt betrayed by the Brexit vote).
What is most certainly happening is that the social media are playing the stories the politicians don't want, i.e the 30 Tory candidates accused of breaching electoral law in 2015 and as was succinctly put ' you citicise Labours fully costed manifest but the only nubers in the Tory manifest are the page numbers.
May's campaign failed to get 'the people' to accept her manifest so she has now switched back to Brexit. Having refused to debate with Corbin or the other leaders both Corbin and May had a Q&A session with an audience and were interviewed by Jeremy Paxman.
Corbin came across as a thoughtful and unflappable guy but May wasn't 'strong and stable' but very wobbly and defending U turns again and again. NOT impressive.
Latest question is whether, if she got only a few extra seats or none at all, whether she could survive the demands of her own party.
Interesting times!
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Old Jun 2nd 2017, 10:00 am
  #84  
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Default Re: June 8th poll

Originally Posted by thefishnets
Perhaps not!
Polls are being disregarded by the electronic media as being useless - having got it totally wrong in 2015, for the referendum and even Trump. Their methodolgy is suspect IPSOS only count the views of those who voted last time but YouGov accept that with 2 million 'new voters' signing up in the last month they may have an effect (and they are mostly younger ones who felt betrayed by the Brexit vote).
What is most certainly happening is that the social media are playing the stories the politicians don't want, i.e the 30 Tory candidates accused of breaching electoral law in 2015 and as was succinctly put ' you citicise Labours fully costed manifest but the only nubers in the Tory manifest are the page numbers.
May's campaign failed to get 'the people' to accept her manifest so she has now switched back to Brexit. Having refused to debate with Corbin or the other leaders both Corbin and May had a Q&A session with an audience and were interviewed by Jeremy Paxman.
Corbin came across as a thoughtful and unflappable guy but May wasn't 'strong and stable' but very wobbly and defending U turns again and again. NOT impressive.
Latest question is whether, if she got only a few extra seats or none at all, whether she could survive the demands of her own party.
Interesting times!

It's so hard to gauge these days. It's not only the polls but the TV journalism and media that get it wrong. Trump and Brexit are prime examples.

One worrying thing that I have noticed is that my You Tube has started (from today) feeding me short "Vote May" commercials. Constantly feeding the commercial (a couple of different versions) prior to watching videos. As someone firmly decided, those commercials won't influence me, but as a campaign tool at the undecided, it's very powerful.
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Old Jun 2nd 2017, 10:13 am
  #85  
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Default Re: June 8th poll

Originally Posted by Almost Canadian
Doesn't that rather depend upon how you define unnecessary? If it was unnecessary, how come Brexit has happened?
Are you saying that just because something happened, it was necessary?

Originally Posted by Almost Canadian
Hasn't the same happened every time an election has been called?

Do you not remember the "will the last person to leave please turn out the lights" campaign against Kinnock?
Are you suggesting that the media influence in 2017 is no greater than in 1992? As suggested by Shard above, it is virtually impossible to avoid media propaganda these days, wanted or not. Some if it, inevitably, sinks in. There is no comparison to 1992, today's campaigning/spin/blatant lies is monstrous in scale.
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Old Jun 2nd 2017, 3:43 pm
  #86  
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Default Re: June 8th poll

Originally Posted by Jingsamichty
Are you saying that just because something happened, it was necessary?



Are you suggesting that the media influence in 2017 is no greater than in 1992? As suggested by Shard above, it is virtually impossible to avoid media propaganda these days, wanted or not. Some if it, inevitably, sinks in. There is no comparison to 1992, today's campaigning/spin/blatant lies is monstrous in scale.
You're looking at it with a wrong lens. Spin is wonderful. You should embrace the absurdity of the propaganda vortex. It's a juxtaposition of the silliness and grave importance that provides such a delightful tingle.
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Old Jun 2nd 2017, 4:08 pm
  #87  
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Default Re: June 8th poll

One of the advantages of living across the pond is that results of UK elections arrive at times when you can enjoy them with a glass of wine in your hand.
What with Comey due to spout and the UK election results, TV on Thursday is looking up. Will have to set aside more booze.
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Old Jun 2nd 2017, 4:10 pm
  #88  
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Default Re: June 8th poll

Originally Posted by dave_j
One of the advantages of living across the pond is that results of UK elections arrive at times when you can enjoy them with a glass of wine in your hand.
What with Comey due to spout and the UK election results, TV on Thursday is looking up. Will have to set aside more booze.
I know. It's HID's birthday on election night so I booked a table for the Friday evening.
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Old Jun 2nd 2017, 6:29 pm
  #89  
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Default Re: June 8th poll

Originally Posted by Jingsamichty
Are you saying that just because something happened, it was necessary?
That depends upon how you define necessary

Originally Posted by Jingsamichty
Are you suggesting that the media influence in 2017 is no greater than in 1992? As suggested by Shard above, it is virtually impossible to avoid media propaganda these days, wanted or not. Some if it, inevitably, sinks in. There is no comparison to 1992, today's campaigning/spin/blatant lies is monstrous in scale.
I would argue that it has always been impossible to avoid propaganda - whether it came from discussions around the dinner table or 24/7 news.

Have you ever changed your political allegiance simply because of something the media stated?
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Old Jun 3rd 2017, 7:57 am
  #90  
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Default Re: June 8th poll

Originally Posted by Shard
It's so hard to gauge these days. It's not only the polls but the TV journalism and media that get it wrong. Trump and Brexit are prime examples.

One worrying thing that I have noticed is that my You Tube has started (from today) feeding me short "Vote May" commercials. Constantly feeding the commercial (a couple of different versions) prior to watching videos. As someone firmly decided, those commercials won't influence me, but as a campaign tool at the undecided, it's very powerful.
This is how political parties with large funds spend them in the 21st Century. 'Targetted Advertising'. There is actually legislation which was supposed to stop the use of 'data analytics' being used to do this but as the data providers are not UK companies (one is Canadian) it cannot be enforced until AFTER the evidence is investigated i.e. after the resulting damage has been done. Interesting that Google effectively auction ad space to the highest bidder (money talks!) and there is a growing complaint from Tories that individuals or small groups are now placing ads for the centre left.

The only effective answer might be to require all political campaigning to be paid for from a single audited, fixed amount, fund but that would hit the expectations of the influence wielding moneyed classes too hard to be acceptable.
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