"Brexit"
#16
Re: "Brexit"
Quite a few of those Italians probably have good jobs in the UK. Who knows what will happen when reciprocity is applied.
#17
Forum Regular
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 254
Re: "Brexit"
I have a "dipendente" job based on the fact I'm an EU citizen - I wonder if that would be taken away from me if I became non-EU. If an Italian company wants to employ a non-EU citizen they have to justify that decision and prove they can't source the labour from inside the EU.
I suppose the banks would be quite happy to leave - they'll be able to do their own thing. Of course, assets in the UK would be treated differently if it was outside the EU - so IVAFE and IVIE would increase. Then there's the worst case scenario where the UK becomes some kind of tax haven and Italy puts it on the black list. Yikes!
About a low pound - in the case of an OUT vote that would be good for UK business selling abroad, so I don't think the government would do anything to prop it up. It would also encourage British people to holiday at home and attract tourists from overseas which would help the UK economy.
Watching the UK news, I don't even know if young people realised that an out vote would massively reduce their choice of countries in which to go and work.
I suppose the banks would be quite happy to leave - they'll be able to do their own thing. Of course, assets in the UK would be treated differently if it was outside the EU - so IVAFE and IVIE would increase. Then there's the worst case scenario where the UK becomes some kind of tax haven and Italy puts it on the black list. Yikes!
About a low pound - in the case of an OUT vote that would be good for UK business selling abroad, so I don't think the government would do anything to prop it up. It would also encourage British people to holiday at home and attract tourists from overseas which would help the UK economy.
Watching the UK news, I don't even know if young people realised that an out vote would massively reduce their choice of countries in which to go and work.
#18
BE Enthusiast
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 538
Re: "Brexit"
'About a low pound - in the case of an OUT vote that would be good for UK business selling abroad'.
Very true. But the UK has for many, many years, run a big balance of trade deficit. ie, the U.K. imports considerably more than she exports. The higher price of these imports on a devalued pound would far outweigh any gain to exporters (at least for many years). I'm also not sure that overseas holidays would be curtailed to any extent. I think that it's more likely that less would be spent on domestic purchases. Anyway, I think that we both agree on the benefits of remaining in. I also think that the financial markets give a much better idea of the state of play rather than the opinion polls. (Far more accurate on Scottish ref., general election, Obama 2nd term etc). For what it's worth, they are saying that the chance of an In victory is currently 68%. This started the week at 66% before falling to 62% on the Boris effect before bouncing right back to a slighter higher position. Similarly, betting odds currently suggest a 65% chance of the in vote winning.
Very true. But the UK has for many, many years, run a big balance of trade deficit. ie, the U.K. imports considerably more than she exports. The higher price of these imports on a devalued pound would far outweigh any gain to exporters (at least for many years). I'm also not sure that overseas holidays would be curtailed to any extent. I think that it's more likely that less would be spent on domestic purchases. Anyway, I think that we both agree on the benefits of remaining in. I also think that the financial markets give a much better idea of the state of play rather than the opinion polls. (Far more accurate on Scottish ref., general election, Obama 2nd term etc). For what it's worth, they are saying that the chance of an In victory is currently 68%. This started the week at 66% before falling to 62% on the Boris effect before bouncing right back to a slighter higher position. Similarly, betting odds currently suggest a 65% chance of the in vote winning.
Last edited by Capo Boi; Feb 24th 2016 at 9:39 pm.
#19
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Aug 2015
Posts: 404
Re: "Brexit"
How are the Swiss or Norwegians treated in Italy? Are they completely extracommunitari or roughly on a par with communitari? I believe there's something called the EEA of which Norway & Switzerland are members and which means that, in the UK at least, you can live and work as if you were from an EU country, though I could be wrong on that score.
I'm fairly sure the "In" vote will win because the British people are inherently fairly conservative in outlook (not to be confused with being Tory!), cf. Scottish referendum, voting reform referendum. I suspect it will be reasonably close and it could cause big political problems for the Conservative party but I firmly hope "in" remains - I can't see the point in running away from something just because you don't like it.
I'm fairly sure the "In" vote will win because the British people are inherently fairly conservative in outlook (not to be confused with being Tory!), cf. Scottish referendum, voting reform referendum. I suspect it will be reasonably close and it could cause big political problems for the Conservative party but I firmly hope "in" remains - I can't see the point in running away from something just because you don't like it.
#20
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 2,512
Re: "Brexit"
For teh Swiss and Norwegians the law of reciprocity applies.
#21
Re: "Brexit"
How are the Swiss or Norwegians treated in Italy? Are they completely extracommunitari or roughly on a par with communitari? I believe there's something called the EEA of which Norway & Switzerland are members and which means that, in the UK at least, you can live and work as if you were from an EU country, though I could be wrong on that score. .....
Leaving the EU would, ironically, not change in any way the numbers of migrant workers coming to the UK from elsewhere in the EEA. The UK would also have to leave the EEA.
#22
Re: "Brexit"
Can I just say ..... I admire your knowledge and many of your posts, but it's good to see that you make typos too.<img title="LOL" class="inlineimg" alt="LOL" src="http://britishexpats.com/forum/images/smilies/lol.gif" style="height:20px; width:20px" />
#24
Forum Regular
Joined: Apr 2013
Posts: 212
Re: "Brexit"
Surely "Onion" isn't a typo. The organisation has many layers and can make you cry if you try to cut it.
#25
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Jun 2010
Location: Disneylandia
Posts: 1,824
Re: "Brexit"
It's worth remembering that both the UK and Italy are also members of OCSE, a treaty which will not be affected by 'Brexit'. This treaty has a lot of scope, and contains a lot of reciprocal arrangements which allowed my wife to work in the UK in the late fifties; and myself to obtain a permesso di soggiorno in the early sixties. Just for the record I'm all in favour of 'Brexit'.
Last edited by ononno; Feb 25th 2016 at 5:32 pm.
#26
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 2,512
Re: "Brexit"
All true Ononno, but dont you think it is the thin end of the wedge? The rise of nationalism and knee jerk protectionism will take us back directly pre WWI and WW2 and any other pre war period you care to name. Personally, I think the EU will fall to bits anyway, I ust think the BRexit will hasten it all along. I also suspect that putin will be thrilled his 'indiscriminate' bombing raids to help his mate, have had the collatoral effect of bringing the EU to its knees - not that he didnt hope it would be this way. Its a win win for him - more influence in the middle east, and the Eu block on his border crumbling with internal problems. Whether the UK stamps its feet and votes in or out really matters very little in the larger picture.
#27
Re: "Brexit"
Just for the record I'm all in favour of 'Brexit'.[/QUOTE]
Me too, and as I can still vote in UK I will.
Never mind B.Expats, Italy is awash with people from outside the EU, all living happily ever after. Chinese, Ukrainians, Filipinos,Ecuadorian and the rest of S. America not to talk about Russians all living in Italy (and not paying IVIE & IVAFE !)
So what difference will it make. None.
Interesting article here:
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article54205.html
Me too, and as I can still vote in UK I will.
Never mind B.Expats, Italy is awash with people from outside the EU, all living happily ever after. Chinese, Ukrainians, Filipinos,Ecuadorian and the rest of S. America not to talk about Russians all living in Italy (and not paying IVIE & IVAFE !)
So what difference will it make. None.
Interesting article here:
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article54205.html
#28
Concierge
Joined: Apr 2007
Location: Verona/ Nr Turin
Posts: 4,671
Re: "Brexit"
The right to live and work anywhere in Europe is not an European Onion matter, it results from membership of the European Economic Area (EEA), and covers not only Switzerland and Norway, but also Lichtenstein and Iceland.
Leaving the EU would, ironically, not change in any way the numbers of migrant workers coming to the UK from elsewhere in the EEA. The UK would also have to leave the EEA.
Leaving the EU would, ironically, not change in any way the numbers of migrant workers coming to the UK from elsewhere in the EEA. The UK would also have to leave the EEA.