Sancho

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...roperty-market

I wonder if anyone has any thoughts on this. Is Italy heading the same way ? Have we avoided it ? What's the difference, if any ? etc...

ononno

In desirable locations, I don't think prices are dropping considerably - maybe 10 - 15%. In big city'popular' areas maybe around 30%. But Italians in general I don't think are keen to offload their property. The general socio-economic situation in Italy is nowhere near as drastic as in Greece. Maybe modicasa is the most qualified to comment.
by by dicette l'inglese

Garbatellamike

Tend to agree with O'nonno. I would also add that Italians seem very reluctant to drop the price they decide on even if that means waiting years afor abuyer.

Therefore, the danger is more likely to be stagnation rather than the bottom dropping out of the market methinks!

Pulaski

The article in indicates that the market in Greece has stagnated (volume collapse: in Athens down from 250,000/yr to 3,600 in 2013), as well as the prices having collapsed.

Capo Boi

Not sure what Eurostat (official EU statistical agency) data was being taken for Greece in the Guardian article.

Anyway here are the Eurostat numbers for house prices since 2010 for a few countries. Numbers are to the start, middle of 2013, the latest available (but obviously around six to nine months behind). Make of them what you will but these are the official EU numbers:

Germany +8%
France +3%
Italy -6.5%
Portugal -14%
Ireland -26%
Spain -29%

Garbatellamike

Yes Pulaski, I got that but what I meant was prices in Italy will not come down much as a result of the stagnation. I know that in Greece volume has collapsed and the asking price has collapsed too whilst in Italy it is more likely (in my admittedly non-specialist view) that there is/will be only the former - I should have made it clearer - apologies.

Pulaski

I am not knowledgeable about the property market in Italy, but my guess would be that the Greeks are more genuinely desperate to sell, or have been forced out by mortgage default, but that Italians have either less debt or more resources so they can avoid being absolutely forced to find a price at which there is a willing buyer, either directly by the mortgage lender, or to have money to live on. That the Greeks are still selling at give-away prices is scary indeed.

Capo Boi

The volume numbers quoted in the article look to me, shall I say a little odd.



Here's the official Bank of Greece stats for all Greece:

09 74,000
10 74,000
11 43,000
12, 30,000
13 Q1 5000 (3 months only)

Garbatellamike

yes less mortgage debt here for sure

NEWCOMO

With UK prop. prices going thru the roof. Surely, all those Brits coming to Italy to retire will put them back up !

nicktonight

I'm not an expert but after 6 years in Sicily I would not entirely rule out a Greek style fall in property prices - some people say it has already happened. After all house prices depend on supply and demand. The population of most Sicilian cities has been gradually falling over the last few years and yet they continue to build houses. The Siracusa papers published a front page article a couple of months ago - I can't remember the exact figures - but it was something like there being 150,000 houses for 120,000 inhabitants. The high taxes on pensions in Italy and the new and complicated IVAFE and IVIE taxes will put off any sensible retirees from coming here. I know Italians are meant to have a visceral attachment to property but leaving second homes empty for most of the year is very expensive

Sancho

There are a few other things that need to be taken into account, I think.

For example

1. Greece has a population of only about 10 million (if I remember right), with nearly half of them living in Athens and its suburbs. Very different from Italy. And I believe a large proportion only moved there in the last few years, which is one reason why many of the people in Athens say they're from somewhere else - an island, some village… - where the old family house still is and where they still have a few olive trees and go back for Easter and Panagiri and so on. There's a bit of that in Italy, but not to anything like the same extent as Greece. If a significant proportion of families in Athens only moved there recently, for work, that may explain a lot about the current state of the properly market there. The article's mostly about property prices in Athens.

2. It may be just me, but I find it difficult to find any solid data on what houses in Italy have sold for. Properties for sale, there seem be masses. Asking prices, no problem. Prices paid ?

Capo Boi

Data for Italy I gave above is based on actual sale prices as reported on notarial deeds. Closest numbers to UK land registry data for example. They are compiled on a consistent basis but to the extent that price under reporting has continued to decrease the actual price falls recorded could be greater than reported. I wouldn't expect this to be more than a couple of percentage points however. Here's the link to a more detailed breakdown of the data used.

http://www.istat.it/en/files/2013/10...+Full+text.pdf

highlander1

Very good point !http://britishexpats.com/forum/image...sunglasses.gif

fliss59

Taxes aren't goings to put us off. I've got just over 3 months until leaving the NHS for good. Can't wait to move to Italy!