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Don't Panic....yet! (EU membership)

Don't Panic....yet! (EU membership)

Old May 25th 2015, 10:42 am
  #16  
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Default Re: Don't Panic....yet! (EU membership)

A lot of EU funding was wasted in our area. Projects that were obviously not viable were funded and certain villages received more than their share of the funds. It's a shame as the funds could have been hugely beneficial to the villages but, in our opinion, many of the mayors had/have no business or managerial experience and simply put forward an idea which was accepted and funded regardless.
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Old May 25th 2015, 11:20 am
  #17  
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Default Re: Don't Panic....yet! (EU membership)

I am probably in a small minority in thinking that Brexit won't have as much impact, either negative or positive, as many people think.

The UK is already in the European "slow lane", not being part of Schengen or the Eurozone, for example. Were it to leave the EU, it would certainly want to be in the EEA. There would probably still be quite considerable freedom of movement of EU citizens; and although a lot of the EU legislation could be rescinded, UK businesses wishing to export to the EU would still have to comply with much of it. Many people would start asking whether all this legislation is bad just because it came from Brussels (quite apart from the fact that Britain helped to get it enacted anyway). Take caps on mobile roaming charges, for example: I don't see Brits just dying to get rid of those caps and pay three-figure sums again for an hour on the Internet when on holiday.

The idea that the UK can have its cake and eat it, for example by maintaining a casino banking system with unfettered access to the entire European market, is naive. The Swiss have come seriously unstuck here: they believed for years that their banks could help tax-dodgers in other countries and that it wasn't "their problem". Two years ago, it had reached the point where the Americans were threatening to arrest Swiss bankers in the US and the Swiss were threatening to arrest German civil servants in Switzerland. In the past, countries have gone to war for less. This is the 21st century and we won't actually declare war on the Swiss, of course. But peaceful and fair trade relations don't appear out of thin air, as some people seem to think.

Britain's net contribution to the EU, which it would save if it left, is in the order of £200 per citizen per year. That's admittedly not trivial, but it's not so huge that the country will suddenly find itself awash with spare money. At the same time, I think it's worth asking whether, if that £200 is spent reasonably effectively (not a given of course, as some of you are saying) in bettering the lot of those living on the EU's margins, it isn't money well spent. If people in these countries don't have a crust, never mind a perspective, they will either migrate to their wealthier neighbours (legally or illegally), or start electing some very nasty leaders.

Brexit would have a huge number of repercussions that would hit (or benefit) different people to different degrees. For example, the EU is currently negotiating the TTIP agreement with the USA. That will probably be done and dusted by the time the UK leaves, if it does leave. But it is an example of what the UK would face on its own: either negotiating with the USA alone and being disadvantaged by being the much smaller negotiating party, or tagging along with the EU's agreement but without having had a say in its production.

The effect on pensions is one example being mentioned here, but if the UK left the EU, it could choose for itself whether to freeze the pensions of its expat pensioners or not.

The pension issue barely affects me, but my business competes with businesses in the UK, and I wonder what effect Brexit would have on that. The biggest effect would be what happens to sterling: my guess is that it would either rise or fall substantially, and possibly even bounce wildly as it did in the 1990s. In either case, there would be some very big winners and some very big losers. People talk about "Black Wednesday" in 1992 when Sterling lost 20% of its value overnight, but one Hungarian (yes) made a billion pounds out of that. At the time, I had a sterling mortgage and was earning in euros, so it wasn't a black Wednesday for me, either. People fit the narrative to suit their own agenda. If sterling were to plummet now, I could lose a lot of business.

My biggest hope is that, like a couple reaffirming their marriage vows, the UK will vote to stay in the EU and will finally join in reforming it rather than just sniping from the sidelines.

My biggest fear is that there will be a vote, probably narrow, to stay in the EU, and the current unhappy marriage will continue.

A vote to leave would be a huge wake-up call for many people who would then discover that the country's problems aren't the fault of the EU and immigration after all. That it needs to get its trade balance back on track by going back to making things that people in other countries actually want to buy. That it needs to solve its housing shortage by building more homes. That it needs to train its workforce for the needs of modern society. That it needs to stop relying so heavily on creating pseudo-wealth that only exists on a hard drive in the City. That it needs to regulate benefits and earnings at least sufficiently well for working to be worthwhile. And so on.

Hungary's situation is quite different to the UK's. Hungary is a very young and fragile democracy, and a very vulnerable economy in a nasty globalized world. Outside the EU, its circumstances would look much like Macedonia's do now; besides that country being dirt poor, many other countries even refuse to call it by its own name.
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Old May 25th 2015, 12:08 pm
  #18  
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Default Re: Don't Panic....yet! (EU membership)

My biggest complaints about the EU.

Unelected Bureaucrats with dictatorial powers.

Taking tax revenues and acting like they are giving away free money to whom they give them too. Then seeing those funds wastefully spent. Yes, it is free for most recipients but someone, somewhere paid for that "Free Money"
Margaret Thatcher said "The problem with socialism is , eventually, you run out of other peoples money too spend" or words to that effect. The E.U. is broke an unsustainable. It will collapse, it is just a matter of time....and what takes its place will be even worse.

The E.U. should be broken up and national sovereignty restored to all the member states.
This new world order is pure evil.

Last edited by Jack_Russells4ever; May 25th 2015 at 12:10 pm.
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Old May 25th 2015, 4:17 pm
  #19  
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Default Re: Don't Panic....yet! (EU membership)

WOW!
What a can of worms my simple selfish concern over my pension payments has caused.

Personally I don't think much will change, (baring military intervention) politics is generally a fairly slow lumbering animal.

Going with the marriage theme, I see it as a couple who have now passed the initial intense love and affection stage when all is wonderful, and is now starting to settle down to the 'rut' period of discontent, but never serious enough to break up.
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Old May 25th 2015, 4:38 pm
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Default Re: Don't Panic....yet! (EU membership)

Originally Posted by duztee
WOW!
What a can of worms my simple selfish concern over my pension payments has caused.
I don't think you can claim that honour, Duztee. That can was already wide open...

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Old May 25th 2015, 7:35 pm
  #21  
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Default Re: Don't Panic....yet! (EU membership)

Well we just have to hope then that if either country do the unthinkable that we all don't just find ourselves kicked out then. And with Fidesz so scared of Jobbik and Jobbik being Jobbik and a certain proportion of south-eastern England being a certain proportion of south eastern England, I wouldn't be all that surprised.
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Old May 26th 2015, 5:55 pm
  #22  
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Default Re: Don't Panic....yet! (EU membership)

Originally Posted by duztee
WOW!
What a can of worms my simple selfish concern over my pension payments has caused.

Personally I don't think much will change, (baring military intervention) politics is generally a fairly slow lumbering animal.

Going with the marriage theme, I see it as a couple who have now passed the initial intense love and affection stage when all is wonderful, and is now starting to settle down to the 'rut' period of discontent, but never serious enough to break up.
Bit like the seven year itch😕
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Old May 27th 2015, 11:10 am
  #23  
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Default Re: Don't Panic....yet! (EU membership)

Originally Posted by Watchpost

My biggest hope is that, like a couple reaffirming their marriage vows, the UK will vote to stay in the EU and will finally join in reforming it rather than just sniping from the sidelines.

My biggest fear is that there will be a vote, probably narrow, to stay in the EU, and the current unhappy marriage will continue.
Likewise, I believed staying and pushing for reform was the likeliest outcome as here at least, the South East, there appears to be no overwhelming desire to leave. However, with Germany and France striving for an 'ever closer union' the reforms sought by the UK now seem unlikely and that might just be enough to change the result.

If the vote is to stay, again, I agree it will be by a narrow margin and nothing much will change except that Farage might gain a few more supporters.
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Old May 29th 2015, 9:53 am
  #24  
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Default Re: Don't Panic....yet! (EU membership)

The only thing that is certain to my mind is that the result of the referendum will unfortunately governed by fear and victory will be handed to those that instill the most fear with their unsupported assertions!
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