Novocastrian

Or, as a former head of the WTO recently put it, extracting the UK from the EU will be as challenging as extracting a single egg from an omelette.

dave_j

I agree.
Brexit will be as hard as diamond.
It really doesn't matter what negotiators come up with. In the end, the fact that 27 different nationalistically minded self centered, greedy, frightened and threatened political institutions will be unable to bring themselves to accomodate others and compromise will win the day.
In my opinion there will be no agreement within two years.
The s**t will then hit the fan, the clock will stop, night will fall and, because, for the only reason that those in charge won't want to be forever associated with the catastrophe that will be known as brexit, there will be a lash up that everyone will applaud as a success and everyone else will wish had never happened.

EuroTrash

Agree with most of the comments but
But what kind of cards could anyone have up their sleeves? I would have thought the EU already knows all there is to know about the UK's economic positions and its strengths and weakenesses and vice versa, after all there are regular surveys and monitoring and analysss of all EU members' performance, countries don't have many secrets hidden in their cupboards these days.

Not sure about that. Right from the start the EU, including and especially the negotiators, are saying quite openly that they wish it wasn't happening, they don't think Brexit is in anyone's best interests, and the best that can be done is a damage limitation exercise. I really don't think anyone in the EU is ever going to applaud the outcome as a success no matter what the deal.

LouisB

The no deal arrangement could be quite bad for the UK, even in spite of ignore downsides at all costs hard-line brexit ideology mobs.

In that situation, brexit can be reviewed, the UK could decide to not leave as too harmful.

A transparent (that'll be the day) presentation of the facts, pros and cons put on the table for the UK to decide on stay vs. Hard leave with nothing in place would be the fair and right (democratic) way to answer that. Of course there will be a lot of backlash because brexitiers claiming to be all for democracy seem to think it was a once in a lifetime vote that can never be reviewed, questioned, asked in more detail or for people to change their minds (in the presence of better information).

For your orriginal question. The UK could cease to coorporate and walk away, doesn't need to negotiate anything for that. However it would be incredibly damaging (for the UK) - given all its long standing negotiated positions and obligations. Unprecedented wouldn't cut it, it could be total disaster.

Anyway, not all doom and gloom, brexit going so well so far I've lost track of all the upsides (April Fools!)

DaveLovesDee

Absolute bollocks.

The EU's negotiating position will be whatever's best for the remaining 27 member states, same as the UK's position will be to get whatever it can (whether it should have it or not).

The object of the negotiations is to manage the expectations of both parties, with a view to ending up with an agreement somewhere in the middle. The EU will be seen as winners for some parts of the end deal, the UK seen as the winner in other parts of the deal, but the UK media will still largely blame the EU for anything the UK wanted but didn't get.

But the four pillars are going to remain the four pillars, and if the UK wants access to one of these, it has to accept all four.

The UK chose to leave, therefore the UK has to understand it's leaving the good bits too.

EuroTrash

+1

FWIW I'm pleased that the EU has stood firm on insisting on keeping discussions on the future of UK/EU citizens living abroad separate from the rest of the negotiations.

EuroTrash

Is that written down somewhere, or just wishful thinking? Is there in fact provision for Britain to change its mind now that a date for its exit has been set, or would it have to go through with the divorce and then apply to tie the knot again?
Although in practical terms, I imagine that as long as it isn't specifically written in stone that Article 50 cannot be untriggered once triggered, and if Britain can swallow it, then nobody this side would stand in the way.

LouisB

As far as I know (including words from the guy who wrote art-50 himself) it's a notice of intention and can be stopped any time until too late, too late being we leave.

Every brexitier and some significant proportion of government will deny and play this down to support brexit, but just as the EU ref itself was a non-legally binding opinion poll, art-50 notice does not imply inevitable leaving. We could end up falling out (very bad) due to failure to negotiate in conjction with failure to stop it, leave on good terms (if that is ever possible) or decide all leaving options are worse for us, better to park brexit for another day, cancelling the intention to leave at this time. Failure to negotiate could leave a black and white case like this for sure.

Because so many brexit leave options are so grave and bad for UK, we could also end up leaving according to the law while to all that matters staying effectively as we are. Given some of the things said lately, this is a growing possibility at least more favourable than certain self harm for no gains. After all nearly all leave promises now evaporated, not even immigration likely to come down, if anything it may go up!

Not that immigration was ever remotely a problem for us, but you know, pretending it is still, brexit is not the answer...

EuroTrash

I don't see that as even a remote possibility, to be frank. The EU has said many times that there is no way it will allow a non-member to retain all of the perks of membership, which makes so much sense, and would have so much fallout if they went back on it, that it's hard to see how they can. In fact this is exactly what they have been cautioning Britain not to hope for.

LouisB

Yes I agree. We won't get all the benefits of being in the EU without being in it.

I guess what I mean is the ability to trade with SM at _least_ means transposing all the rules and regs so we can comply, and following them when they change. Now with added April fool's bonus we won't get a say in it. Current pointers suggest UK gov may be angling for this but clearly there won't be an arrangement as good as being in, as said time and time again by 'fear mongers' 🙄

Like being in the EU without any of the additional benefits.

As always the cold hard shower of reality will continue to rain down on brexit fantasy. All part of 'taking back control' 😂

I remain convinced brexit is the dumbest thing I've ever seen. I'll remain open minded should I be proven wrong, in the mean time a massive waste of time, effort and resource for almost nothing at all. Sad.

Novocastrian

As has been said before* there will be no access to the single market a la Norway / EFTA model without free movement.

* Years before.

LouisB

Answer is simple. Keep FoM. put the mindless blaming aside, it was never an issue. We're not even in the Schengen zone FFS. Not to mention our own government had powers already (they fail to use) to remove those not seen as contributing.

Once again, UK problems traced back to UKs doing, not the EU and so blaming the EU will help absolutely no one. Well except the tories grab more power and some rich people get richer, perhaps.

Novocastrian

I don't think we disagree here: the 27 will never permit full access to the single market without FoM etc.

I can't be bothered to search but I said a long time ago on BE that the Brexit referendum was ludicrous because the only possible outcomes would be the status quo or EFTA membership. As you say, acceptance of all present and future EU regulations and laws without input into their formulation.

Empress May is a long long way from realising that and by the time she does, it may be unachievable.

InVinoVeritas

I think the Article 50 notice can be withdrawn by the UK but, to be effective, it would require the agreement of all the other 27 members (ie not a qualified majority).

It is, in any case, highly unlikely.

Novocastrian

But surely all 27 countries need the UK more than the UK needs them?

Or so the Leavers believe.