Tweedpipe

This is an interesting week in French politics.
At the weekend (Sun) the poll stations will open to decide which of the 7 right-wing candidates will go through as presidential candidature for 2017.
Tomorrow evening sees the last televised, decisive 'battle' debate between these candidates. Juppe & Sarkozy are current favorites, with F. Fillon gaining ground faster than many expected. If anything like the last 2 debates, tomorrow's is not to be missed. Ironic in a way, because if anyone had told me 10 years ago that I would be taking such a close interest in French politics, I would have said they were crazy. But on reflection, perhaps it's me who's flying over the cuckoo's nest.
And superbly timed tactically, today E. Macron - Hollande's ex economy minister - also announced his candidature, which although expected, will no doubt shake-up both left & right wing. Particularly interesting as it appears that not unlike Trump, Macron will attract a great many 'anti-system' votes.
It's anyone's guess if Macron's move may put an end to Flambie's desire to run again for President - with such a disastrously, all-time low popularity.
And it's also no secret that M. Valls - current prime minister - is also champing at the bit to run as a left-wing presidential candidate, but not wanting to prematurely abandon Hollande's government, appears to be in a delicate situation, not knowing Flambie's future intentions.
And Marine Le Pen must also be seen as a serious outsider.
Indeed, a fascinating next few months ahead.

dmu

Hi, sorry to note that no one has responded to your excellent analysis of present-day French politics!
We went to vote this morning and were surprised to see how many envelopes there were in the "urnes" already. Our sector is predominantly red/dark pink with navy blue dots, and we wonder whether the Gauche or FN has been voting in order to to cause confusion!
As you say, a "fascinating" few months ahead!
P.S. On a practical note, they didn't request the Carte d'Electeur, only our French IDs (indicating address, to check the postal code). Are non-French EU citizens on the Electoral Roll eligible to vote?

Tweedpipe

Actually I didn't really expect any comments, they were just thoughts for general interest, aimed at those living here and/or visitors, who may be intrigued by how things are looking on the political scene here.
To answer your last query DMU, I'm pretty sure that non-French EU citizens on electoral role here, were not allowed to vote today. Had that not been the case, I'm certain that Mme TP would have dragged me along too.
As to your wondering whether the Gauche or FN have been voting in order to cause confusion, I think not - at least not on a large scale. Watching the midday news it seems that the polling stations have rarely seen queues like today, positively swarming with voters - over 4 million estimated, which is practically unheard of for a party primary first-round election. I believe this is due to a large percentage of the population being totally 'hissed-off' with what's been happening within the PS since Flamby's 2012 election, and the F.Fillon/F.Cope/N.Sarkozy showdowns etc, and who now want positive, firm change & leadership. Now whether this will manifest itself by a surprise surge of votes for new alternate thinking candidates such as Bruno Le Maire or centralist JF Poisson, remains to be seen in tonight's results. I'd wager that if there is an outright winner from today's first round, that person will be the next president.
Of course the left-wing parties have still to show their hand at their primary candidate elections. JL Melenchon, B. Hamon, A Montebourg & M.Valls are the main players. My money (but not necessarily vote) would be on Valls for top goal-scorer, with Montebourg in 2nd place. E.Macron will be playing at 'centre' forward, with a high chance of a good score, with F.Bayrou on the touch-line as a very unlikely substitute.
Then there's the very popular ladies league, headed by Marine Le Pen, who will be wearing the new team logo on her teams shirt. I couldn't help but smile when I saw the new logo. A marine-blue rose! That will certainly upset a great many traditional PS members.
Mme TP just tells me that quite a number of far-left members apparently did turn up at the polls, and substituted 50 cent pieces instead of the mandatory 2euros.
If I'd gone to vote, I would have just spent a penny.
:
:
: The final results are not yet in, but it's looking very much like a penalty kick-off between F. Fillon & A Jupe next Sun.
: N. Sarkozy has just made a superb 'bowing-out' speech.

Scots in Treignac

Visiting Bordeaux in October , there were references all over the place to the "Turn-around" achieved by the former PM. He has a good |PR machine.
I couldn't help thinking of all those European cities who began cleaning their buildings in the sixties and seventies.

dmu

From various reports, it sounds as though I was right, many Gauchistes, at least, voted Anti-Sarko, and it worked. I'll bet that there'll be far fewer voters next Sunday.....
Hopefully Sarko's demise makes the "everything goes in threes" hat-trick after Brexit and Trump, and that the unpleasant surprise isn't for 2017.

Tweedpipe

DMU, I believe you're probably right.

Tweedpipe

For many who may not have been watching today's 2nd round primary for leader of the right-wing 'Republican' party, F. Fillon was declared the winner by a surprise resounding majority (more than double the votes). There were in fact, more voters than at last weekend's 1st round (I hope you didn't have real money on that wager DMU)......
The result is again clear proof that one can have little faith in results of opinion polls. This impressive victory will surely unruffle the feathers of the FN and left-wing parties.
Trying to read between the lines of today's result, I reckon - perhaps even before the month is out - we could all be surprised by a major announcement in the current government. Or has my crystal ball gone down with a virus........

dmu

No, luckily only virtual!
(who would have believed a 2/3-1/3 victory?....)

Tweedpipe

It looks like my crystal ball is virus-free.
In a hastily announced tv broadcast this evening, F. Hollande announced his decision not to run as candidate for the renewal of his Presidential mandate.
Now this may appear of little political interest to many, but it's quite ground-breaking, as to the best of my knowledge, it's the first time that anything politically similar has occurred for over 50 years in France's 5th republic.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but with a rating at an all-time low of any French President, F. Hollande is surely admitting, that his failure prohibits him from going any further. Manuel Valls will surely be delighted with this news, and I bet that N. Sarkozy had more than a hint of a smile at this announcement - albeit all too late for any personal political hopes.
Mme TP summed this announcement up admirably, saying "A smart if not gutsy decision, as had he decided to run again as presidential candidate, he would have been totally annihilated by other left-wing candidates," and there's no shortage of them - currently seven of 'em sharpening their knives backstage.
As I had no vote here in 2012, and consider myself more a 'centrist', I have no axe to grind, and as N. Sarkozy was in some ways his own worst enemy, I simply wished for whichever party that came into power to be the very best for the well-being of France and it's citizens. Within a few months it became painfully obvious that we had an Albert Trotter II at the helm of the good ship Elysee, and that the (albeit small) majority of left-wing voters had made a bad mistake. It also explains in part why a number of his cabinet abandoned ship in mid-ocean.

Tweedpipe

I'm no fisherman, but I do know a lure when I see one.
In his 10min or so announcement, after having boasted for a full eight minutes about the 'great' achievements of his five-year term, Flamby concludes that it is more prudent not to represent himself. Arguably his final 2min declaration is perhaps the best decision of his presidency.

And I've just been reading a great many comments in the media following the above recent announcement. Here are a few snippets that particularly caught my eye:-

- "At last he's done one good thing during his presidency."

- "It's obvious. He didn't want to be swept under-foot at the primaries as N. Sarkozy was".

- "This is the first time that Hollande shows a little bit of dignity, but it's surely more motivated by the fear of taking a k.o. uppercut in future votes than by grandeur of mind."

- "Manuel has been under valium for the last 15 minutes, his heart rate rose to 198 pulsations."

- "Wanting to leave a trace in history, but methinks he'll leave a stain."

- "On offer to the highest bidder - one President. Almost new, used only once."

- "Ship's captain selling:- One pedalo. Bargain price."

And for those lovers of poetry:
- "In this autumn period, the bitter pears fall - even without the wind.
Sarkozy, Juppé, Hollande..."

EuroTrash

For the first time ever I actually feel a twinge of sympathy for the man. Not being ironic at all, it's probably the bravest and wisest decision he made since becoming president, and having made the decision he stood up like a man and did what had to be done. He could have strung his party and the nation along for days if not weeks but he didn't. Ms May could learn a lesson there.

dmu

Me, too.
His decision could have been made public earlier, but he found the courage to announce it with dignity.

morpeth

So after Brexit and Trump what is the possibility that Le Penn may win the election ? Are the pollsters in France like the ones in UK and USA missing reality ?

I watched the other day on youtube a video of Le Penn at the Oxford student union answering questions, I had a hard time imagining Trump being able to handle such a situation as she was able to.

EuroTrash

Courage and dignity, yes those are exactly the right words, DMU. Two things that have been lacking all through his term of office and suddenly, now, he finds them. So ironic.

@Morpeth - from comments that you read online it's pretty clear French pollsters are on average far sharper and better informed than in the UK, don't know about the US. Politicians here have to be credible because everything they say is going to be dissected and questioned and challenged by the media and the voters. Don't forget, the French learn how to debate at school, so it's second nature to them to spot the flaws in an argument. Unlike the UK where it seems people will swallow anything without chewing it. But that doesn't mean voters here don't get it wrong. Look at what happened last time. You may be convinced by the policies but unless you have a crystal ball you don't know whether a person will keep their promises or not. Maybe the problem in France is that they look closely at the real facts and figures and the policies but don't give enough importance to personality and strength of character or lack of it. Whereas in the UK, "image" seems to be all important, voters seem to be won over by spin rather than real facts and figures. Neither way seems to work so what's the answer.

dmu

As you've all heard, after Valls's resignation, Bernard Cazeneuve has been nominated stop-gap PM until the end of Flamby's 5-year office. A wise choice all round, as he announced some time ago that he wouldn't be putting himself up for re-election as a Député = no jealousy from the present Ministers.... He's well-liked by his colleagues, not flamboyant, and, maybe the most important, was a competent Minister of the Interior after a few other ministerial positions.
Next likely episode in this Saga will be the Primaires in January. I suppose, like the Right-Centre Primaires, that you don't have to be member of the Party to vote?