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Old Dec 21st 2010, 4:20 am   #1
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Exclamation Weather warning EMQ

Have I beaten Pollyanna to this one?

In summary - it has been raining a lot over recent weeks... and unfortunately it is only going to get worse in the next few days.

Anyone living in the areas mentioned below, should consider how they might be affected if this level of rainfall does occur, and plan accordingly (i.e. get a flight down to sydney and come back in the new year. )

--------------------------------------------------------------------

The Bureau of Meteorology has issued government departments with an urgent warning of heavy rain over widespread areas of the state that is likely between Wednesday 22nd December and 27th December 2010.


Why? – A trough is currently forming over south east Queensland that will bring lingering heavy rain to the south east corner between Wednesday night and next Monday.

In the north, lows in the Coral Sea and Gulf of Carpentaria are expected to cross the coast bringing widespread rain to large areas with flooding rains to localised areas. Both lows have the potential to become low grade cyclones, but this is not currently expected.

The Coral Sea low is currently predicted to cross the east coast between Cardwell and Bowen on Friday night or Saturday morning.

South East Queensland
Starting Wednesday night south east Queensland can expect between 50 and 100mm of rain daily for a period of four to five days.

While accurate hydraulic modelling cannot be done until rainfall figures become known, the rain will fall on saturated soils at a time when the dams, despite opening of gates, will have limited capacity for flood mitigation.

Wide Bay
Rain is forecast starting Wednesday with potential for daily falls of between 100mm and 150mm

Central Queensland, Central Highlands and Whitsundays
Daily forecasts of between 100 and 150mm have been predicted between Thursday and next Monday for the Central Coast with rain moving to the west.

Emerald could have up to 100 to 150mm of daily rain, and as far west as Longreach and into the Carnarvons, falls of up to 50mm to 100mm can be expected.

Between Gladstone and Bowen falls could measure between 200mm and 300mm between Wednesday night and Monday with localised falls of 500mm possible on Friday night and Saturday.

Rockhampton could be facing rainfall of 100mm to 200mm between Wednesday and Sunday with the rain then moving into the Fitzroy River catchment, further swelling rivers in that catchment including the Issacs and Connor Rivers.

Tropical North Coast
The BoM has forecast isolated falls of up to 500mm in the Burdekin catchment between Wednesday and Saturday with rain easing through Sunday and Monday.

Maritime
The lows are expected to generate winds of up to 25 knots, and seas and swells of up to 3 metres, but the major impact is expected to be rain.


Preparations

• EMD will again be briefed by the Bureau of Meteorology on Wednesday with more up to date forecasts and river modelling.

• Following this brief EMD will prepare another briefing and a meeting of the Critical Incident Management Team will be convened with invitations to be sent to all regions following that briefing

• The State Disaster Co-ordination Group in conjunction with QPS will be preparing media statements warning of the dangers of flooding in order to provide a consistent message about flood water dangers.

• District Disaster Management Groups and Local Disaster Management Groups are expected to be activated over the next couple of days

• All Regional Emergency Management Teams should meet in preparation for tomorrow’s CIMT teleconference
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Old Dec 21st 2010, 4:36 am   #2
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Default Re: Weather warning EMQ

Quote:
Originally Posted by asprilla View Post
Have I beaten Pollyanna to this one?

In summary - it has been raining a lot over recent weeks... and unfortunately it is only going to get worse in the next few days.

Anyone living in the areas mentioned below, should consider how they might be affected if this level of rainfall does occur, and plan accordingly (i.e. get a flight down to sydney and come back in the new year. )

--------------------------------------------------------------------

The Bureau of Meteorology has issued government departments with an urgent warning of heavy rain over widespread areas of the state that is likely between Wednesday 22nd December and 27th December 2010.


Why? – A trough is currently forming over south east Queensland that will bring lingering heavy rain to the south east corner between Wednesday night and next Monday.

In the north, lows in the Coral Sea and Gulf of Carpentaria are expected to cross the coast bringing widespread rain to large areas with flooding rains to localised areas. Both lows have the potential to become low grade cyclones, but this is not currently expected.

The Coral Sea low is currently predicted to cross the east coast between Cardwell and Bowen on Friday night or Saturday morning.

South East Queensland
Starting Wednesday night south east Queensland can expect between 50 and 100mm of rain daily for a period of four to five days.

While accurate hydraulic modelling cannot be done until rainfall figures become known, the rain will fall on saturated soils at a time when the dams, despite opening of gates, will have limited capacity for flood mitigation.

Wide Bay
Rain is forecast starting Wednesday with potential for daily falls of between 100mm and 150mm

Central Queensland, Central Highlands and Whitsundays
Daily forecasts of between 100 and 150mm have been predicted between Thursday and next Monday for the Central Coast with rain moving to the west.

Emerald could have up to 100 to 150mm of daily rain, and as far west as Longreach and into the Carnarvons, falls of up to 50mm to 100mm can be expected.

Between Gladstone and Bowen falls could measure between 200mm and 300mm between Wednesday night and Monday with localised falls of 500mm possible on Friday night and Saturday.

Rockhampton could be facing rainfall of 100mm to 200mm between Wednesday and Sunday with the rain then moving into the Fitzroy River catchment, further swelling rivers in that catchment including the Issacs and Connor Rivers.

Tropical North Coast
The BoM has forecast isolated falls of up to 500mm in the Burdekin catchment between Wednesday and Saturday with rain easing through Sunday and Monday.

Maritime
The lows are expected to generate winds of up to 25 knots, and seas and swells of up to 3 metres, but the major impact is expected to be rain.


Preparations

• EMD will again be briefed by the Bureau of Meteorology on Wednesday with more up to date forecasts and river modelling.

• Following this brief EMD will prepare another briefing and a meeting of the Critical Incident Management Team will be convened with invitations to be sent to all regions following that briefing

• The State Disaster Co-ordination Group in conjunction with QPS will be preparing media statements warning of the dangers of flooding in order to provide a consistent message about flood water dangers.

• District Disaster Management Groups and Local Disaster Management Groups are expected to be activated over the next couple of days

• All Regional Emergency Management Teams should meet in preparation for tomorrow’s CIMT teleconference
Storm/Flood/Cyclones Qld 2010-11 season

So were you on our teleconference this morning with the SDCG etc we've been watching it, and lots of people who thought they were on leave for Christmas now aren't
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And in your memory I will remain; I will forever be within the flame.....
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Old Dec 21st 2010, 4:43 am   #3
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Default Re: Weather warning EMQ

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pollyana View Post
Storm/Flood/Cyclones Qld 2010-11 season

So were you on our teleconference this morning with the SDCG etc we've been watching it, and lots of people who thought they were on leave for Christmas now aren't
No, an attachment was forwarded to me.

I really hope that this passes over with no major flooding. I know it is corny, but christmas is supposed to be a happy time of year, where families get together and kids play with presents. This latest forecast could really ruin this weekend for many people.
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Old Dec 21st 2010, 4:51 am   #4
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Default Re: Weather warning EMQ

Quote:
Originally Posted by asprilla View Post
South East Queensland
Starting Wednesday night south east Queensland can expect between 50 and 100mm of rain daily for a period of four to five days.

While accurate hydraulic modelling cannot be done until rainfall figures become known, the rain will fall on saturated soils at a time when the dams, despite opening of gates, will have limited capacity for flood mitigation.


Lovely! Happy Xmas from the rain gods!

We have been considering Byron Bay over NY...but as our only accommodation option is likely to be a tent I'm thinking we'll give it a miss, it's normally even wetter down there than SEQ.
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Old Dec 21st 2010, 4:52 am   #5
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Default Re: Weather warning EMQ

Quote:
Originally Posted by asprilla View Post
No, an attachment was forwarded to me.

I really hope that this passes over with no major flooding. I know it is corny, but christmas is supposed to be a happy time of year, where families get together and kids play with presents. This latest forecast could really ruin this weekend for many people.
Its certainly not a good forecast, and we are taking it very seriously - I was on over Christmas anyway, but we are now looking at more people called back to work and they don't do that likely. There is a very realistic chance of the rainfall figures in your post being accurate, and as the ground is already saturated flooding is very likely. A close eye on the weather is recommended all along the coast.

I will try and post updates when I can - this morning was a bit frantic, and i'm back in again tonight.

Meanwhile

Tropical cyclone outlook for today is giving a 5-205 chance of it becoming a cyclone, so keep an eye on that and on the State forecast .
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Old Dec 21st 2010, 4:59 am   #6
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Default Re: Weather warning EMQ

Quote:
Originally Posted by bcworld View Post
We have been considering Byron Bay over NY...but as our only accommodation option is likely to be a tent I'm thinking we'll give it a miss, it's normally even wetter down there than SEQ.
hmm... tricky one. Who knows, this weather might pass and Byron bay could be stunning over NY. Just the luck of the draw !
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Old Dec 21st 2010, 5:05 am   #7
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Default Re: Weather warning EMQ

Quote:
Originally Posted by asprilla View Post
hmm... tricky one. Who knows, this weather might pass and Byron bay could be stunning over NY. Just the luck of the draw !
Think I'll give it a miss!
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Old Dec 21st 2010, 5:05 am   #8
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Default Re: Weather warning EMQ

Quote:
Originally Posted by asprilla View Post
hmm... tricky one. Who knows, this weather might pass and Byron bay could be stunning over NY. Just the luck of the draw !
Mmmm wouldn't like to place bets this far out. The rain thats expected (which might come ashore as a trpoical low or worse) will be much higher up, in Bowen/Mackay type area, but heavy falls are expected all down the coast and may reach to Byron. Also, with New Year 2 weeks away there is time (and this is pure speculation by me, NOT me speaking for my employers!) for another cyclone to build in the Coral Sea, or for other weather patterns to develop. Not a call I'd like to make at all, the way this season has gone so far, anything could happen yet.
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Old Dec 22nd 2010, 11:52 am   #9
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Default Re: Weather warning EMQ

Look, I am desperate to get away for a few days and we have planned a big camping trip with a few other families to the Sunshine Coast, near Noosa.

I don't mind a bit of rain when we are there but don't really want to be putting up tents in a cyclone. (who does really?).

I reckon if the forecast is for showers, we still go for it but some of the people camping with us will only go if its a clear forecast.

What do you reckon?
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Old Dec 22nd 2010, 12:15 pm   #10
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Originally Posted by RenShen View Post
Look, I am desperate to get away for a few days and we have planned a big camping trip with a few other families to the Sunshine Coast, near Noosa.

I don't mind a bit of rain when we are there but don't really want to be putting up tents in a cyclone. (who does really?).

I reckon if the forecast is for showers, we still go for it but some of the people camping with us will only go if its a clear forecast.

What do you reckon?
hmm.. tricky one. Do you have big tarps to shelter under the rain? Do you know if the campsite is waterlogged, or does the ground drain pretty well (call the campsite and ask).

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Old Dec 22nd 2010, 12:32 pm   #11
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hmm.. tricky one. Do you have big tarps to shelter under the rain? Do you know if the campsite is waterlogged, or does the ground drain pretty well (call the campsite and ask).

Loadsa tarps and calling the campsite is on my to do list for tomorrow (its a very long list )
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Old Dec 24th 2010, 12:03 pm   #12
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Loadsa tarps and calling the campsite is on my to do list for tomorrow (its a very long list )
Weather here in Townsville is horrendous, massive rains and huge winds...seems to be getting worse...
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Old Dec 24th 2010, 12:10 pm   #13
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Weather here in Townsville is horrendous, massive rains and huge winds...seems to be getting worse...
As at 9pm - still a Tropical Low, location - 230km ENE of Cairns (near Holmes Reef 16.3S, 147.9E . Pressure - 998hPa
Movement - moving SW at 14kts (26km/hr) forecast track to remain relatively constant with a coastal crossing between Cape Tribulation to Cardwell area at approximately 5-6am.
Conditions favourable for development however the system is still below Tropical cyclone criteria. Needs to have a mean wind speed of 41knots to be a Cat 1. Unfortunately heavy rains will persist in the region due to the southward progression of the monsoon trough towards the Mackay/Whitsunday area.

Good luck guys..........
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Old Dec 24th 2010, 12:21 pm   #14
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Default Re: Weather warning EMQ

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Damaging Winds, Heavy Rainfall and Further Flooding For people about the coast, ranges and adjacent inland areas between Cairns and St Lawrence.

Issued at 11:15 pm on Friday 24 December 2010

Synoptic Situation: At 10pm, the monsoon trough extended across northern Cape York Peninsula to a monsoon low located in the northwest Coral Sea, approximately 300km northeast of Cairns. The monsoon low has been slowly intensifying and is expected to continue intensifying and move in a southwest direction and cross the north tropical coast between Cairns and Cardwell during Saturday morning.

Damaging wind gusts to 90 kilometres per hour will develop overnight between Cairns and Bowen, particularly about the higher ground, including the Atherton Tablelands. These wind gusts will extend westwards into the adjacent inland during Saturday morning.

Heavy rainfall and associated flooding will continue in coastal areas between Cairns and St Lawrence overnight and extend inland during Saturday. Some localised heavy falls may occur.

The situation will continue to be monitored and will be updated every 3 hours.
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Old Dec 24th 2010, 5:38 pm   #15
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Default Re: Weather warning EMQ

looks like cairns is having tasha around for chrissy lunch

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml

hope every stays safe
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