Pollyana

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 28
Issued at 4:41 am EST on Saturday 14 March 2015
Headline:
Cyclone Nathan is near stationary off the coast of Cape Melville, and is expected to intensify later today.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Lockhart River to Cape Flattery.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
None

Details of Tropical Cyclone Nathan at 4:00 am EST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 100 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 140 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 75 kilometres of 13.1 degrees South 145.0 degrees East, estimated to be 130 kilometres north northeast of Cape Melville and 265 kilometres north of Cooktown.

Movement: north at 2 kilometres per hour.

Cyclone Nathan is near stationary and has maintained its intensity as a category 2 cyclone. It is expected to intensify later today as it begins to move eastwards away from the coast.

Hazards:
GALES currently extend out to approximately 180 kilometres from the centre to the north of the system and about 140 kilometres to the south of the system. GALES could develop about coastal and island areas between Lockhart River and Cape Melville this morning and could also develop south towards Cape Flattery as the cyclone intensifies. The risk of GALES will persist throughout Saturday morning, before contracting offshore during the day as the cyclone moves away from the Queensland coast.

Areas of heavy rain will continue about parts of the Peninsula and North Tropical Coast and Tablelands districts early this morning before gradually easing later in today as the cyclone moves away from the coast. A Flood Watch is current for North Tropical Coast catchments north of Innisfail and some Flood Warnings are also current, refer to these products for further details.

Recommended Action:
People between Lockhart River and Cape Flattery should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 8:00 am EST Saturday 14 March.
This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's website at Australia's official weather forecasts & weather radar - Bureau of Meteorology or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

Pollyana

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 4:43 pm EST on Monday 16 March 2015
At 4 pm EST Monday, Tropical Cyclone Nathan (Category 2) with central pressure 984 hPa was located over the Coral sea near latitude 14.0 south longitude 149.8 east, which is about 515 km east northeast of Cooktown and 540 km northeast of Cairns. The cyclone is moving south southeast at about 2 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Nathan will have no impact on the Queensland coast in the
short term.

Tropical Cyclone Nathan is expected to intensify during the next couple of days while remaining well offshore from the Queensland coast. The system has adopted a slow southwards track during today, and this is expected to continue into Tuesday. Subsequently, the cyclone is likely shift to the west during mid to late week, with an increasing risk of significant impacts to the northern Queensland coast.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 11 pm EST.

Queensland Warnings Summary

SoCalDon

They say it's heading down to SE Qld and will be here by Friday. Gonna get a little damp again by the looks of things.

Pollyana

I think one of the models reckons it'll head south, but the majority have it heading straight back in for Cairns/Innisfail. Certainly one to watch....!

Pollyana

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 33
Issued at 4:48 pm EST on Tuesday 17 March 2015
Headline:
Cyclone Watch issued, Nathan expected to strengthen and turn to the west towards the north Qld coast on Wednesday.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
Cape Melville to Cardwell.

Cancelled Zone
None

Details of Tropical Cyclone Nathan at 4:00 pm EST:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 14.9 degrees South 149.6 degrees East, estimated to be 470 kilometres east northeast of Cairns and 470 kilometres east of Cooktown.

Movement: south at 6 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Nathan is expected to continue to move slowly southwards overnight and then shift onto a westwards track, towards the north Queensland coast, during Wednesday morning.

The system should remain relatively weak until Wednesday morning, but is then likely to begin to intensify in a much more favourable environment, and this strengthening should continue up until landfall along the north Queensland coast.

Hazards:
GALES are not expected over coastal and islad communities in the next 24 hours, however they may develop in the 24 to 48 hour period between Cape Melville and Cardwell, most likely late on Thursday afternoon or evening.

Coastal residents between Cape Melville and Cardwell are specifically warned of the possibility of a dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea may rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take

measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Heavy rainfall which may lead to flash flooding is likely to develop on Thursday afternoon or evening.

Recommended Action:
People between Cape Melville and Cardwell should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

- Information is available from your local government

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management

Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on

132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings

or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Tuesday 17 March.
This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's website at Australia's official weather forecasts & weather radar - Bureau of Meteorology or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

SillyOldBag

How rude of the weather, the one weekend in years that my girly and I have plans for the weekend and a cyclone decides to put in an appearance! How very rude! Looks like my girls 13th birthday bash might have to be postponed - she's quite accepting of the fact though, thank goodness! Otherwise she'd get her teenage drama queen years off to a fine start!

Thanks for the posts Polly - I always read your weather updates but am sufficiently ill-mannered that I rarely reply. They are appreciated though - honest! And by the way, if it does come to Cairns, I'd better give you my new mobile number for personal updates

Pollyana

Hope it doesn't ruin her birthday

At prsent the models are saying Cooktown, though maybe a bit further south towards Cairns, possibly a Cat 3.
As there are high tides due around the time it is expected to cross there may also be some flooding coming in with it - don't know if your place is in a storm surge area?
I am almost to say that on the first day of this years cyclone season I predicted a cyclone crossing around Innisfail/Cairns, on the morning of March 20th...... (echoes of Larry, but not as strong).

Pollyana

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 37

Issued at 4:54 pm EST on Wednesday 18 March 2015
Headline:

Nathan now a category 3. Warning current between Cape Melville and Innisfail, Watch extended north to Lockhart River.
Areas Affected:
Warning Zone

Cape Melville to Innisfail.
Watch Zone

Lockhart River to Cape Melville, extending inland to Laura and Palmerville.
Cancelled Zone

Innisfail to Cardwell.
Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nathan at 4:00 pm EST:

Intensity: Category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 120 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 165 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 20 kilometres of 15.0 degrees South 149.0 degrees East, estimated to be 405 kilometres east northeast of Cairns and 405 kilometres east of Cooktown.

Movement: west northwest at 4 kilometres per hour.

Severe tropical cyclone Nathan is now beginning to adopt more of a westwards track and should continue to intensify as it approaches the north Queensland coast. At this stage, severe tropical cyclone Nathan is expected to cross the north Queensland coast between Cape Melville and Port Douglas during Friday morning.
Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 110 km/h currently extend out to approximately 150 kilometres from the centre of the cyclone. GALES may develop about coastal and island communities between Cape Melville and Innisfail on Thursday night before possibly extending north to Lockhart River and over adjacent inland areas from the coast, including Palmerville and Laura on Friday.

DESTRUCTIVE and VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds are expected to develop near the centre of the cyclone and may begin to affect coastal and island communities between Cape Melville and Cairns overnight Thursday or during Friday morning, depending on the track the cyclone takes.

Coastal residents between Cape Melville and Innisfail are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide that could occur as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas, which could also extend some way inland. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, may develop late Thursday but will most likely occur during Friday as the cyclone crosses the coast.
Recommended Action:

People between Cape Melville and Innisfail should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property using available daylight hours.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

People between Lockhart River and Cape Melville, extending inland to Laura and Palmerville should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

- Information is available from your local government

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management

Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on

132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings

or roof damage).
Next Advice:

The next advice will be issued by 8:00 pm EST Wednesday 18 March.

Pollyana

Nathan a category 3 cyclone, intensifying and moving towards the coast.Warning current Cape Melville to Innisfail.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Cape Melville to Innisfail.

Watch zone: Lockhart River to Cape Melville, extending inland to Laura and Palmerville.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nathan at 10:00 pm EST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 140 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 195 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 14.8 degrees South, 148.8 degrees East , 390 kilometres east of Cooktown and 395 kilometres northeast of Cairns .
Movement: west northwest at 5 kilometres per hour .

Severe Tropical Cyclone Nathan has adopted a westwards track and should continue this general motion with a very slight increase in forward speed, for the next several days. This will bring the centre of the cyclone onto the north Queensland coast, most likely between Cape Melville and Port Douglas, early on Friday morning. The system is small in size, but the core is likely to intensify up until landfall on the north Queensland coast.

Hazards:

GALES with gusts to 110 km/h currently extend out to approximately 150 kilometres from the centre of the cyclone. GALES may develop about coastal and island communities between Cape Melville and Innisfail on Thursday night before possibly extending north to Lockhart River and over adjacent inland areas from the coast, including Palmerville and Laura on Friday.

DESTRUCTIVE winds extend out to about 70 kilometres from the centre of the cyclone and may begin to affect coastal and island communities between Cape Melville and Cairns overnight Thursday into early Friday morning, depending on the track the cyclone takes. Maximum wind gusts close to the centre are likely to reach 260 kilometres per hour as the cyclone makes landfall.

Coastal residents between Cape Melville and Innisfail are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide that could occur as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas, which could also extend some way inland. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, may develop late Thursday but will most likely occur during Friday as the cyclone crosses the coast.

Pollyana

Severe tropical cyclone Nathan expected to cross the coast early Friday morning between Cape Melville and Cooktown.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Lockhart River to Port Douglas, extending inland to areas including Laura and Palmerville.

Watch zone: None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nathan at 4:00 pm EST:

Intensity: category 3, sustained winds near the centre of 140 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 195 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 15 kilometres of 14.7 degrees South, 146.9 degrees East , 170 kilometres east of Cape Flattery and 200 kilometres east northeast of Cooktown .
Movement: west at 12 kilometres per hour .

Severe tropical cyclone Nathan is continuing its westward movement towards the far northeast Queensland coast. Further intensification is expected before the system makes landfall as a category 4 cyclone, most likely between Cape Melville and Cooktown early on Friday morning.

Hazards:

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of severe tropical cyclone Nathan, with maximum wind gusts forecast to reach 260 km/h, is expected to make landfall between Cape Melville and Cooktown early on Friday morning.

GALES with gusts to 120 km/h currently extend out to approximately 130 kilometres from the centre of the cyclone. GALES may develop about coastal and island communities between Lockhart River and Port Douglas this evening and overnight, before extending inland to areas including Palmerville and Laura during Friday morning.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS extend out to about 70 kilometres from the centre of the cyclone and may begin to affect coastal and island communities between Cape Melville and Cape Tribulation late tonight and into Friday morning.

Coastal residents between Cape Melville and Cape Tribulation are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide that could occur as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas, which could also extend some way inland. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Tides may just exceed the highest tide of the year on the coast south of Cape Tribulation to Port Douglas on the high tide on Friday.

Heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop about the coast between Coen and Cape Tribulation tonight, extending west through inland parts with the passage of Tropical Cyclone Nathan on Friday.

Separate Severe Weather Warnings are current for Friday; one for abnormally high tides on the coast from Port Douglas to Innisfail, and another for heavy rainfall and locally damaging wind gusts about the Peninsula and Gulf Country between Weipa and Kowanyama.

Recommended Action:

People between Lockhart River and Port Douglas, extending inland to Laura and Palmerville should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property using available daylight hours.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Pollyana

Tropical cyclone Nathan now category 4, moving west towards the coast.

Areas affected:

Warning zone: Lockhart River to Cape Tribulation, extending inland to areas including Laura and Palmerville.

Watch zone: None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nathan at 1:00 am EST:

Intensity: category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 165 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 230 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 15 kilometres of 14.7 degrees South, 145.6 degrees East , 35 kilometres northeast of Cape Flattery and 90 kilometres north northeast of Cooktown .
Movement: west at 17 kilometres per hour .

Severe tropical cyclone Nathan is continuing its westward movement towards the far northeast Queensland coast. The system has intensified to category 4, and is expected to cross at this intensity between Cape Melville and Cape Flattery during this morning.

Hazards:

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of severe tropical cyclone Nathan, with maximum wind gusts forecast to 250 km/h, is expected to make landfall between Cape Melville and Cape Flattery early this morning.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 150 km/h extend out to about 90 kilometres from the centre of the cyclone and may begin to affect coastal and island communities between Cape Melville and Cape Tribulation this morning.

GALES with gusts to 120 km/h extend out to approximately 130 kilometres from the centre of the cyclone, and are now developing about coastal and island communities between Cape Melville and Cape Tribulation. These winds are expected to extend inland areas, including Laura and Palmerville, and northwards to Lockhart River during this morning.

Coastal residents between Cape Melville and Cooktown are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide that could occur as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas, which could also extend some way inland. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorites. Elsewhere in the warning zone, water levels on the high tide could just exceed the highest tide of the year today, with large waves possibly producing minor flooding along the foreshore.

Heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop about the coast between Coen and Cape Tribulation this morning, extending west through inland parts with the passage of Tropical Cyclone Nathan throughout today.

Separate Severe Weather Warnings are current; one for abnormally high tides on the coast from Cape Tribulation to Innisfail, and another for heavy rainfall and locally damaging wind gusts about the Peninsula and Gulf Country districts between Weipa and Kowanyama.

Pollyana

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 75
Issued at 7:43 pm EST on Friday 20 March 2015
Headline:
Cyclone Nathan, category 1, continues moving westward across Cape York Peninsula.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Port Stewart to Bathurst Head (east coast), as well as Aurukun to Kowanyama (Gulf coast), including adjacent inland areas.

Watch Zone
Numbulwar to Maningrida, including Groote Eylandt, Nhulunbuy and Elcho Island (Northern Territory)

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Nathan at 7:00 pm EST [6:30 pm CST]:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 14.5 degrees South 142.8 degrees East, estimated to be 80 kilometres southwest of Coen and 155 kilometres east southeast of Cape Keerweer.

Movement: west at 18 kilometres per hour.

Tropical cyclone Nathan is expected to remain as a category 1 system as it moves inland over Cape York Peninsula during this evening before moving over the Gulf of Carpentaria during Saturday.

Hazards:
GALES, with gusts to 120 km/h, extend out to approximately 110 kilometres from the centre of the cyclone, and are expected to occur about parts of Cape York Peninsula between Port Stewart and Bathurst Head, as well as Aurukun and Kowanyama, including adjacent inland areas during this evening and persist into early Saturday.

Heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, will occur across parts of the Peninsula district with the passage of the cyclone this evening.

Gales are not expected to affect the Northern Territory coast within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop along the coast of northeastern Arnhem Land on Sunday.

Recommended Action:
People in areas between Port Stewart and Bathurst Head (east coast), as well as Aurukun and Kowanyama (Gulf coast), including adjacent inland areas should remain inside until the cyclone has passed and listen to the next advice.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

For Northern Territory:

The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to finalise your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

If you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation, you should determine NOW where you will shelter. This may include arranging to shelter with family, friends or in public emergency shelters, or strong buildings, where available in your community.

This advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Friday 20 March [10:30 pm CST Friday 20 March].
This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's website at Australia's official weather forecasts & weather radar - Bureau of Meteorology or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.