Pollyana

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:36 pm EST on Sunday 8 March 2015
for the period until midnight EST Wednesday 11 March 2015.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region: Nil.

Potential Cyclones: An active monsoon trough extends across the northern reaches of the Coral Sea. A tropical low is expected to form within the monsoon trough over the northwest Coral Sea today or tomorrow. This low is expected to deepen during the next few days and has a moderate potential to develop into a tropical cyclone on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Monday Low
Tuesday Moderate
Wednesday Moderate

------------------------------------------------------------

This is NOT the 'monster cyclone' that the media is going on about, that's further out, and likely to affect Fiji and Vanuatu on its current projected track, not Queensland. However it bears watching....... (track map attached shows its current projected track).

This is the smaller system on the attached maps - there is a chance this system may become a cyclone & looks to be slow moving, it has the potential to produce a lot of rain across the Cape York Peninsula and north tropical Queensland coast including places like Lockhart River, Port Douglas, Cairns and Cooktown areas. There is potential of falls above 500mm in some areas possibly as high as 700mm close to the coast and ranges especially if the system hugs the coast and remains very slow moving.
All models are in agreement now a low will form, all agree that it will meander near the north tropical coast for several days (though one or two models push it west as far as the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria) while others have it just crossing the coast then heads back out to sea again and a couple of models have it staying near the north tropical coast without crossing before moving away slowly to the east again.
Whatever it does, there is potential for torrential rain and cyclonic winds in the north and far north. Batten down the hatches.

Pollyana

- Tropical cyclone is expected to form in the western Coral sea could be as early as Wednesday (75% chance & higher)
- The system may edge westwards towards the coast near Cairns or just north Cairns but all models then have the system moving back east or south eastwards back out to sea in the longer term thanks to an upper trough, some models keep it out to sea but near the coast before it moves slowly to the east or south east in the longer term.
- Models develop the system as high as a category two but there is a chance the system may become stronger with very warm (above average) sea surface temperatures (30c+) in the western Coral sea
- There is potential for extremely heavy rainfall from Cairns to Thursday Island especially eastern parts of the Peninsula and North Tropical coast districts Wednesday onwards. Accumulated falls of 500mm+ in wet spots due to terrain is still possible.
- Gale or strong winds will extend as far south as the Herbert and Lower Burdekin Forecast & Central coast & Whitsundays.

(with acknowledgment to JWC on facebook )

Pollyana

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Monday 9 March 2015
for the period until midnight EST Thursday 12 March 2015.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low situated south of Papua New Guinea is expected to move slowly
westwards while gradually developing over the next few days. At this stage it
is anticipated that the low could form into a tropical cyclone by Thursday as
it moves across the northwest Coral Sea.

There are no other significant lows in the region and none are expected to
develop over the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Tuesday Low
Wednesday Moderate
Thursday High

Pollyana

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1

Issued at 11:44 am EST on Tuesday 10 March 2015
Headline:

Tropical low in the northwest Coral Sea expected to intensify into a cyclone in the next 24 hours
Areas Affected:

Watch Zone

Coen to Cape Tribulation.

Details of Tropical Low at 10:00 am EST:

Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 110 kilometres of 12.5 degrees South 149.6 degrees East, estimated to be 570 kilometres northeast of Cooktown and 580 kilometres east northeast of Cape Melville.

Movement: west at 7 kilometres per hour.
Hazards:

The tropical low in the northwest Coral Sea is expected to continue moving in a general westwards direction while intensifying over the next couple of days.

GALES are expected to extend out to approximately 170 kilometres from the centre and could develop about coastal areas between Coen and Cape Tribulation during Thursday.

Areas of heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, could develop across parts of the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands and Peninsula districts during Wednesday and should persist into Thursday.
Recommended Action:

People between Coen and Cape Tribulation should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

- Information is available from your local government

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland Fire and Emergency Service (QFES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).
Next Advice:

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm EST Tuesday 10 March.

Pollyana

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued at 4:28 pm EST on Tuesday 10 March 2015

Tropical cyclone Watch continues for coastal communities between Coen and Cape Tribulation

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
Coen to Cape Tribulation.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Low at 4:00 pm EST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 110 kilometres of 13.1 degrees South 149.0 degrees East, estimated to be 485 kilometres east northeast of Cooktown and 500 kilometres east northeast of Cape Melville.

Movement: west southwest at 11 kilometres per hour.

Hazards:
The tropical low in the northwest Coral Sea is expected to continue moving in a general westwards direction while intensifying over the next couple of days. At this stage, it is expected that the low could reach tropical cyclone strength during Wednesday.

GALES are expected to extend out to approximately 170 kilometres from the centre once the low forms into a tropical cyclone and could develop about coastal areas between Coen and Cape Tribulation during Thursday.

Areas of heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, could develop across parts of the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands and Peninsula districts during Wednesday and should persist into Thursday.

Recommended Action:
People between Coen and Cape Tribulation should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

- Information is available from your local government

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland Fire and Emergency Service (QFES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Tuesday 10 March.

Pollyana

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3

Issued at 11:55 pm EST on Tuesday 10 March 2015
Headline:

Tropical Cyclone Nathan has formed in the NW Coral Sea.
Areas Affected:
Warning Zone

None.
Watch Zone

Coen to Cape Tribulation.
Cancelled Zone

None.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Nathan at 10:00 pm EST:

Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 110 kilometres of 13.3 degrees South 148.6 degrees East, estimated to be 435 kilometres northeast of Cooktown and 450 kilometres east northeast of Cape Melville.

Movement: southwest at 12 kilometres per hour.
Hazards:

GALES extend out to approximately 150 kilometres from the west of the centre and could develop about coastal areas between Coen and Cape Tribulation during Thursday.

Areas of heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, could develop across parts of the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands and Peninsula districts during Wednesday and should persist into Thursday.
Recommended Action:

People between Coen and Cape Tribulation should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

- Information is available from your local government

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland Fire and Emergency Service (QFES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).
Next Advice:

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am EST Wednesday 11 March.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's website

Pollyana

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 7

Issued at 1:49 pm EST on Wednesday 11 March 2015
Headline:

Category 2 Tropical Cyclone Nathan continues to move towards the coast. Warning and Watch areas unchanged.
Areas Affected:
Warning Zone

Coen to Cape Tribulation.
Watch Zone

Lockhart River to Coen and Cape Tribulation to Port Douglas.
Cancelled Zone

None.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Nathan at 1:00 pm EST:

Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 75 kilometres of 13.8 degrees South 146.4 degrees East, estimated to be 140 kilometres northeast of Lizard Island and 225 kilometres north northeast of Cooktown.

Movement: west southwest at 14 kilometres per hour.
Hazards:

GALES extend out to approximately 180 kilometres from the centre and could develop about coastal and island areas between Coen and Cape Tribulation later today and should persist into Thursday. GALES could extend north to Lockhart River and as far south as Port Douglas later on Thursday, depending on the track the cyclone takes.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS extend out to 70 kilometres from the centre and could develop about the coast and islands between Cooktown and Cape Melville, including Lizard Island during Thursday.

Areas of heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, are expected across parts of the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands and Peninsula districts today and should persist into Thursday. A separate Severe Weather Warning for heavy rainfall and damaging winds is now also current for parts of these districts.

Abnormally high tides could develop about coastal areas between Coen and Cape Tribulation during Thursday with large waves possibly leading to minor flooding along the foreshore if the cyclone takes a more westward track closer to the coast. People living in areas that could be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours in case this scenario occurs.
Recommended Action:

People between Coen and Cape Tribulation should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland Fire and Emergency Service (QFES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

People between Lockhart River and Coen, and also between Cape Tribulation and Port Douglas should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

- Information is available from your local government

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland Fire and Emergency Service (QFES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).
Next Advice:

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm EST Wednesday 11 March.

Pollyana

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL

For people in parts of the
Peninsula and
Northern Tropical Coast and Tablelands Forecast Districts.

Issued at 11:55 am Wednesday, 11 March 2015.

Synoptic Situation:
Tropical cyclone Nathan lies over the northwestern Coral Sea and is expected to shift further west southwest during the remainder of today and Thursday while intensifying. The cyclone should then shift eastwards away from the coast during Friday.

Expected Weather:
Bands of heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms are expected to intensify from this evening over northern and eastern parts of the Peninsula district and through the North Tropical Coast district as the tropical cyclone moves closer to the coast. The bands of heavy rain should then contract further offshore during Friday afternoon and evening.

24 hour rainfall totals of 200mm to 400mm are likely, with some areas possibly recording 200mm or more over a 6 hour period which could result in localised flash flooding. The heavier rainfalls are particularly likely over the higher ground of the ranges and just near the coastal fringe.

Locally damaging wind gusts to 90km/h will possibly develop over the ranges south of Port Douglas overnight tonight and may also occur within the heavier rain bands.

Locations which may be affected include Orford Ness, Cape Grenville, Cairns, Mareeba, Atherton, Innisfail, Tully and Cardwell.

A separate Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for coastal communities between Lockhart River and Port Douglas. Please refer to this warning for information on severe weather expected for these communities.

A Flood Watch is current for North Tropical Coast catchments north of Cardwell.

Tully Gorge recorded 214mm in the 24 hours to 9am Wednesday.

Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* Move your car under cover or away from trees.
* Secure loose outdoor items.
* Seek shelter, preferably indoors and never under trees.
* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
* Avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters.
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.

The next warning is due to be issued by 5:55 pm.

Pollyana

FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTH TROPICAL COAST CATCHMENTS NORTH OF CARDWELL

Issued at 12:04 pm EST on Wednesday 11 March 2015

Issue Number: 2

Further areas of heavy rain associated with Tropical Cyclone Nathan are forecast to affect parts of the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands, and Cape York Peninsula.

Widespread rainfall totals of 300 to 500 mm are forecast from Wednesday evening through to Friday, with isolated totals to 600 mm possible. The heaviest falls are expected north of Cape Tribulation, close to the cyclone centre.

River level rises above the minor flood level are expected.

Heavy rainfall may also lead to localised flash flooding.

Catchments at risk within the Flood Watch area include the Daintree, Mossman, Barron, Mulgrave, Russell, Johnstone, Tully and Murray Rivers.

See Queensland Warnings Summary to view the current flood warnings for Queensland.

This Flood Watch means that people living or working along rivers and creeks should monitor the latest weather forecasts and warnings and be ready to move to higher ground should flooding develop.

See Flood Watch in Queensland for further information about Flood Watch.

Remember: If it's flooded, forget it.

For flood emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.

For life threatening emergencies, call Triple Zero (000) immediately.

Current emergency information is available at www.disaster.qld.gov.au
Weather Forecast:

For the latest weather forecasts see: Queensland Forecasts
Next Issue:

The next Flood Watch is due to be issued by 12:00 pm (midday) on Thursday 12 March 2015.

Pollyana

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued at 4:43 pm EST on Wednesday 11 March 2015
Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Nathan Warning extended to Port Douglas. Watch from Lockhart River to Coen still in effect.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Coen to Port Douglas.

Watch Zone
Lockhart River to Coen.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Nathan at 4:00 pm EST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 65 kilometres of 13.8 degrees South 146.0 degrees East, estimated to be 115 kilometres north northeast of Lizard Island and 205 kilometres north northeast of Cooktown.

Movement: west southwest at 14 kilometres per hour.

Hazards:
GALES extend out to approximately 180 kilometres from the centre and could develop about coastal and island areas between Coen and Port Douglas later today and should persist into Thursday. GALES could extend north to Lockhart River later on Thursday, depending on the track the cyclone takes.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are expected to develop within 45 kilometres of the centre overnight and could begin to affect coastal and island areas between Cape Flattery and Cape Melville from Thursday morning.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS extend out to 70 kilometres from the centre and could develop about the coast and islands between Cooktown and Cape Melville, including Lizard Island from early Thursday.

Areas of heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, are expected across parts of the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands and Peninsula districts this evening and should persist into Thursday. A separate Severe Weather Warning for heavy rainfall and damaging winds is now also current for parts of these districts.

Abnormally high tides could develop about coastal areas between Coen and Cape Tribulation during Thursday with large waves possibly leading to minor flooding along the foreshore if the cyclone takes a more westward track closer to the coast. People living in areas that could be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours in case this scenario occurs.

Recommended Action:
People between Coen and Port Douglas should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland Fire and Emergency Service (QFES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

People between Lockhart River and Coen should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

- Information is available from your local government

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland Fire and Emergency Service (QFES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 8:00 pm EST Wednesday 11 March.

Pollyana

FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTH TROPICAL COAST CATCHMENTS NORTH OF CARDWELL
Issued at 12:04 pm EST on Wednesday 11 March 2015
Issue Number: 2

Further areas of heavy rain associated with Tropical Cyclone Nathan are forecast to affect parts of the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands, and Cape York Peninsula.

Widespread rainfall totals of 300 to 500 mm are forecast from Wednesday evening through to Friday, with isolated totals to 600 mm possible. The heaviest falls are expected north of Cape Tribulation, close to the cyclone centre.

River level rises above the minor flood level are expected.

Heavy rainfall may also lead to localised flash flooding.

Catchments at risk within the Flood Watch area include the Daintree, Mossman, Barron, Mulgrave, Russell, Johnstone, Tully and Murray Rivers.

See Queensland Warnings Summary to view the current flood warnings for Queensland.

This Flood Watch means that people living or working along rivers and creeks should monitor the latest weather forecasts and warnings and be ready to move to higher ground should flooding develop.

See Flood Watch in Queensland for further information about Flood Watch.

Remember: If it's flooded, forget it.

For flood emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.

For life threatening emergencies, call Triple Zero (000) immediately.

Current emergency information is available at www.disaster.qld.gov.au

Weather Forecast:
For the latest weather forecasts see: Queensland Forecasts

Next Issue:
The next Flood Watch is due to be issued by 12:00 pm (midday) on Thursday 12 March 2015.

This advice is also available by dialling 1300 659 219 at a low call cost of 27.5 cents, more from mobile, public and satellite phones.

Pollyana

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in parts of the Peninsula and Northern Tropical Coast and Tablelands Forecast Districts.
Issued at 5:24 pm Wednesday, 11 March 2015.
Synoptic Situation:
Tropical cyclone Nathan lies over the northwestern Coral Sea and is expected to intensify further as it shifts west southwest during the next 24 hours, approaching the coast between Coen and Cooktown during Thursday. The cyclone should then shift eastwards away from the coast during Friday.
Expected Weather:
Bands of heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms are expected to intensify from this evening over northern and eastern parts of the Peninsula district and through the North Tropical Coast district as the tropical cyclone moves closer to the coast. The bands of heavy rain should then contract further offshore during Friday afternoon and evening.
24 hour rainfall totals of 200mm to 400mm are likely, with some areas possibly recording 200mm or more over a 6 hour period which could result in localised flash flooding. The heavier rainfalls are particularly likely over the higher ground of the ranges and just near the coastal fringe.
Locally damaging wind gusts to 90km/h will possibly develop over the ranges south of Port Douglas overnight tonight and may also occur within the heavier rain bands.
Locations which may be affected include Orford Ness, Cape Grenville, Cairns, Mareeba, Atherton, Innisfail, Tully and Cardwell.
A separate Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for coastal communities between Lockhart River and Port Douglas. Please refer to this warning for information on severe weather expected for these communities.
A Flood Watch is current for North Tropical Coast catchments north of Cardwell.
A Flood Warning has been issued for the Tully River.
Tully Gorge recorded 214mm in the 24 hours to 9am Wednesday and has recorded a further 70mm in the 8 hours from 9am to 5pm today.
Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* Move your car under cover or away from trees.
* Secure loose outdoor items.
* Seek shelter, preferably indoors and never under trees.
* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
* Avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters.
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.
The next warning is due to be issued by 11:25 pm.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at Australia's official weather forecasts & weather radar - Bureau of Meteorology or call 1300 659 219. The Bureau and Queensland Fire and Emergency Services would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

Pollyana

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 13

Issued at 7:36 am EST on Thursday 12 March 2015


Cyclone Nathan close to the coast north of Cape Flattery.
Areas Affected:
Warning Zone

Coen to Port Douglas.
Watch Zone

Lockhart River to Coen.
Cancelled Zone

None.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Nathan at 7:00 am EST:

Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 45 kilometres of 13.9 degrees South 145.6 degrees East, estimated to be 90 kilometres north of Lizard Island and 180 kilometres north northeast of Cooktown.

Movement: west at 5 kilometres per hour.Cyclone Nathan is continuing to move slowly southwest towards the coast near Cape Flattery. It is expected to slow this movement during today and ultimately change direction to the east-northeast away from the coast over the next 24 hours.
Hazards:

GALES extend out to approximately 100 kilometres from the centre to the south of the system and could develop about coastal and island areas between Coen and Port Douglas today. GALES could extend north to Lockhart River during Friday, depending on the track the cyclone takes.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are expected to develop within 45 kilometres of the centre overnight tonight and could begin to affect coastal and island areas between Cape Flattery and Cape Melville.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS extend out to 70 kilometres from the centre and could develop about the coast and islands between Cooktown and Cape Melville, including Lizard Island, today.

Areas of heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, are expected across parts of the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands and Peninsula districts throughout today. A separate Severe Weather Warning for heavy rainfall and damaging winds is current for parts of these districts.

Abnormally high tides could develop about coastal areas between Coen and Cape Tribulation during today with large waves possibly leading to minor flooding along the foreshore if the cyclone takes a more westward track closer to the coast. People living in areas that could be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours in case this scenario occurs.
Recommended Action:

People between Coen and Port Douglas should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland Fire and Emergency Service (QFES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

People between Lockhart River and Coen should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

- Information is available from your local government

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland Fire and Emergency Service (QFES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).
Next Advice:

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am EST Thursday 12 March.

Pollyana

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL

For people in parts of the Peninsula and Northern Tropical Coast and Tablelands Forecast Districts.

Issued at 5:42 am Thursday, 12 March 2015.

Synoptic Situation:
Tropical cyclone Nathan lies over the northwestern Coral Sea and is expected to intensify further as it shifts west southwest during the next 12 to 18 hours, approaching the coast between Coen and Cooktown during today. The cyclone should then shift eastwards away from the coast late today or early on Friday.

Expected Weather:
Bands of heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms are expected to intensify from this evening over northern and eastern parts of the Peninsula district and through the North Tropical Coast district as the tropical cyclone moves closer to the coast. The bands of heavy rain should then contract further offshore during Friday afternoon and evening.

24 hour rainfall totals of 200mm to 400mm are likely, with some areas possibly recording 200mm or more over a 6 hour period which could result in localised flash flooding. The heavier rainfalls are particularly likely over the higher ground of the ranges and just near the coastal fringe.

Locally damaging wind gusts to 90km/h will possibly develop over the ranges south of Port Douglas overnight tonight and may also occur within the heavier rain bands.

Locations which may be affected include Orford Ness, Cape Grenville, Cairns, Mareeba, Atherton, Innisfail, Tully and Cardwell.

A separate Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for coastal communities between Lockhart River and Port Douglas. Please refer to this warning for information on severe weather expected for these communities.

A Flood Watch is current for North Tropical Coast catchments north of Cardwell.

A Flood Warning has been issued for the Tully, Murray, Mulgrave and Russel Rivers.

Tully Gorge recorded 214mm in the 24 hours to 9am Wednesday and has recorded a further 190mm since 9am on Wednesday.

Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* Move your car under cover or away from trees.
* Secure loose outdoor items.
* Seek shelter, preferably indoors and never under trees.
* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
* Avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters.
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.

The next warning is due to be issued by 11:45 am.

Pollyana

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 17

Issued at 7:46 pm EST on Thursday 12 March 2015
Headline:

Tropical cyclone Nathan remains slow moving off the coast of Cape Melville .
Areas Affected:
Warning Zone

Lockhart River to Cape Tribulation.
Watch Zone

None.
Cancelled Zone

Cape Tribulation to Port Douglas.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Nathan at 7:00 pm EST:

Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 45 kilometres of 13.9 degrees South 145.2 degrees East, estimated to be 80 kilometres east northeast of Cape Melville and 175 kilometres north of Cooktown.

Movement: Slow moving.

Cyclone Nathan has become slow moving off the northeast Queensland coast between Coen and Cape Flattery. It is expected to begin moving away from the coast during Friday.
Hazards:

GALES currently extend out to approximately 110 kilometres from the centre to the north of the system and about 60 kilometres to the south of the system. GALES are likely between Cape Flattery and Cape Melville, including Lizard Island and could develop about coastal and island areas north to Lockhart River this evening or tomorrow morning. GALES could extend south to Cape Tribulation overnight and into Friday depending on the track the cyclone takes.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are expected to develop within 45 kilometres of the centre early Friday morning and could begin to affect coastal and island areas between Cape Flattery and Cape Melville if the cyclone moves close to the coast.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS currently extend out to 70 kilometres from the centre and could develop about the coast and islands between Cape Flattery and Cape Melville, including Lizard Island overnight.

Areas of heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, are expected along coastal and adjacent inland areas between Lockhart River and Cape Tribulation for the remainder of today and overnight before gradually easing during Friday as the cyclone moves away from the coast. The Severe Weather Warning for heavy rainfall and damaging winds for areas outside the cyclone warning area has been cancelled.

Abnormally high tides could develop about coastal areas between Coen and Cape Tribulation during today and Friday with large waves possibly leading to minor flooding along the foreshore if the cyclone takes a more westward track closer to the coast. People living in areas that could be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours in case this scenario occurs.
Recommended Action:

People between Lockhart River and Cape Tribulation should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).
Next Advice:

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Thursday 12 March.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's website at Australia's official weather forecasts & weather radar - Bureau of Meteorology or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.