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QLD SOUTH OF MACKAY/NORTH NSW - TROPICAL CYCLONE MARCIA

QLD SOUTH OF MACKAY/NORTH NSW - TROPICAL CYCLONE MARCIA

Old Feb 16th 2015, 5:37 am
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Default QLD SOUTH OF MACKAY/NORTH NSW - TROPICAL CYCLONE MARCIA

Queensland Forecast

From Wednesday onwards the potential for cyclone development is expected to increase in both the Gulf of Carpentaria and the Coral Sea. At this stage further showers and some storms are likely over the tropics north of about Cooktown to Kowanyama. Instability should also increase through southern central districts and the Wide Bay as the trough over the southern Coral Sea tracks further west, with some showers and possible storms developing. A slight to medium chance of showers will persist about the remaining east coast, while some showers and storms will continue in the southwest of the state. A large easterly swell will extend towards Fraser Island and the southern Queensland coast.

Thursday -At this stage the most likely scenario is for the trough over the southern Coral Sea to continue tracking west and approach the southern Queensland coast, producing showers, rain areas and possible storms east coast districts south of about Yeppoon. The trough will also likely result in dangerous surf conditions along Fraser Island and southern beaches. A medium to high chance of showers and storms is expected over the northern and eastern tropics and also the central coast.

Friday until Sunday
Some uncertainty persists with the forecasts through the outlook period given uncertainty regarding the movement of any tropical systems and also the trough over the southern Coral Sea. The trough will most likely move into southeastern corner of the state on Friday, generating rain areas and isolated storms with possible locally heavy falls. It should then contract further south on Saturday though a chance of showers and storms will likely persist through the weekend. A medium to high chance of showers and storms will continue through the tropics and central districts.

-----------------------

Depending on the movement of the trough towards the Queensland coast, there could be considerable rainfall along the coast south of Mackay and Yeppoon, with a possibility of heavy falls and some flooding from Thursday onwards. This could stretch as far as the border, and even into northern NSW.
Strong winds will also being dangerous surf and high seas.

Last edited by Pollyana; Feb 18th 2015 at 11:25 pm.
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Old Feb 17th 2015, 4:50 am
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Default SEVERE WEATHER WARNING - Wide Bay & Burnett,Southeast Coast,Capricornia

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES and DANGEROUS SURF

For people in the Wide Bay and Burnett, Southeast Coast and parts of the Capricornia Forecast Districts.


Issued at 3:34 pm Tuesday, 17 February 2015.

Synoptic Situation:
A tropical low pressure system lies over the Coral Sea approximately 1000 km east northeast of Cairns. The low may cross the Capricornia or Wide Bay coast on Friday. The monsoon trough is likely to extend southwards of the low towards Queensland's southeast late in the working week, resulting in severe weather near, and well to the south of the low.

Heavy rain and damaging winds are possible from the coast to the ranges between Rockhampton and Brisbane from Thursday, extending down to the state's southern border during Friday. The heavy rain may lead to flash flooding, with some 24 hour totals in excess of 300 mm). The damaging gusts may reach around 90 km/hr, mostly near the coast and ranges.

Water levels on the high tide are likely to exceed the highest tide of the year between Rockhampton and the Gold Coast from Thursday. Dangerous surf conditions and significant beach erosion are also expected between Rockhampton and the Gold Coast from Thursday.

Locations which may be affected include Gold Coast, Brisbane, Maroochydore, Gympie, Bundaberg, Gladstone and Rockhampton.

Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* Move your car under cover or away from trees.
* Secure loose outdoor items.
* Seek shelter, preferably indoors and never under trees.
* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
* Avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters.
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
* Surf Life Saving Australia recommends that you stay out of the water and stay well away from surf-exposed areas.
* Check your property regularly for erosion or inundation by sea water, and if necessary raise goods and electrical items.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.

The next warning is due to be issued by 9:35 pm.

Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at Australia's official weather forecasts & weather radar - Bureau of Meteorology or call 1300 659 219. The Bureau and Queensland Fire and Emergency Services would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
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Old Feb 17th 2015, 4:51 am
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Default re: QLD SOUTH OF MACKAY/NORTH NSW - TROPICAL CYCLONE MARCIA

INITIAL FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CAPRICORNIA, WIDE BAY & BURNETT AND SOUTHEAST COAST FORECAST DISTRICTS

Issued at 3:47 pm EST on Tuesday 17 February 2015

Issue Number: 1


Heavy rainfall associated with a trough is forecast to affect catchments between Rockhampton and the NSW border from Thursday through to Saturday.

Widespread rainfall totals of 200-300 mm are forecast, with locally higher rainfall likely. A severe weather warning for damaging winds, heavy rainfall, abnormally high tides and dangerous surf is current.

River level rises above the minor flood level are expected.

Heavy rainfall may also lead to localised flash flooding.

Catchments at risk within the Flood Watch area include the Dawson, Calliope, Boyne, Baffle, Kolan, Burnett, Cherwell-Burrum, Mary, Noosa, Maroochy, Mooloolah, Brisbane, Logan, Albert and Gold Coast rivers and creeks.


See Queensland Warnings Summary to view the current flood warnings for Queensland.

This Flood Watch means that people living or working along rivers and creeks should monitor the latest weather forecasts and warnings and be ready to move to higher ground should flooding develop.

See Flood Watch in Queensland for further information about Flood Watch.

Remember: If it's flooded, forget it.

For flood emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.

For life threatening emergencies, call Triple Zero (000) immediately.


Current emergency information is available at www.disaster.qld.gov.au .
Weather Forecast:

For the latest weather forecasts see: Queensland Forecasts
Next Issue:

The next Flood Watch will be issued by 12:00 pm (midday) on Wednesday 18 February 2015.

This advice is also available by dialling 1300 659 219 at a low call cost of 27.5 cents, more from mobile, public and satellite phones.

Warning, rainfall and river information are available at Queensland Rainfall and River Conditions.
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Old Feb 17th 2015, 8:15 am
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Default re: QLD SOUTH OF MACKAY/NORTH NSW - TROPICAL CYCLONE MARCIA

CORAL SEA LOW LIKELY TO AFFECT SOUTH EAST QUEENSLAND & NORTH EASTERN NSW HEAVY/FLOODING RAIN AND STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS TO IMPACT FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS.
  • The low is expected to move south westwards over the coming days
  • Heavy/flooding rains expected anywhere south of Bundaberg with south east Queensland in the firing line including Brisbane, Sunshine and Gold coasts regions. At this stage areas near Rockhampton and Gladstone will also see decent falls but the most extreme rain is likely to falls south of this region but any slight change in the direction of the low (slightly further north) and this could change to include Rockhampton & Gladstone.
  • North eastern NSW also expected to see heavy/flooding rains with Northern Rivers and Mid North coast expected to see the brunt of it.
  • Falls of up to 500mm not out of the question in some areas but general widespread 100 to 400mm expected in most of these regions that we have mentioned.
  • There is a chance that the low may turn into a weak category1 cyclone which will carry wind gusts up to 100km/h which can be destructive, Even if low does not become cyclonic, strong to gale force winds will impact the southern and eastern part of the system as it nears the coast.
  • Severe weather warnings and flood watches will be issued over the next 24 to 36 hours by the BOM due to heavy/flooding rains and possibly gale force winds.

Pic 1) Earthwindmap of Coral Sea at present
Pic 2) Sat pic at present with possible track of the Low
Pic 3) Predicted rainfall over the next four days
Attached Thumbnails QLD SOUTH OF MACKAY/NORTH NSW - TROPICAL CYCLONE MARCIA-10333563_800323770041958_8370097235536196378_o.jpg   QLD SOUTH OF MACKAY/NORTH NSW - TROPICAL CYCLONE MARCIA-10993080_413827448793883_1100914213525086836_n.jpg   QLD SOUTH OF MACKAY/NORTH NSW - TROPICAL CYCLONE MARCIA-capture.jpg  
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Old Feb 17th 2015, 9:31 am
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Default re: QLD SOUTH OF MACKAY/NORTH NSW - TROPICAL CYCLONE MARCIA

Will be watching this one. Hope it is not so bad.
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Old Feb 17th 2015, 10:34 am
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Default re: QLD SOUTH OF MACKAY/NORTH NSW - TROPICAL CYCLONE MARCIA

Originally Posted by Alfresco
Will be watching this one. Hope it is not so bad.
that it doesn't live up to the forecasts......
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Old Feb 17th 2015, 11:16 am
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Default re: QLD SOUTH OF MACKAY/NORTH NSW - TROPICAL CYCLONE MARCIA

I spent some time today cleaning out the gutters and battening down the hatches (well, wedging an extra brick up against the shed door)

Don't suppose we will get it too bad but it does look like it will be really nasty for some
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Old Feb 17th 2015, 1:53 pm
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Default re: QLD SOUTH OF MACKAY/NORTH NSW - TROPICAL CYCLONE MARCIA

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES and DANGEROUS SURF

For people in the Wide Bay and Burnett, Southeast Coast and parts of the
Capricornia Forecast Districts.

Issued at 9:26 pm Tuesday, 17 February 2015.

Synoptic Situation:
A tropical low pressure system lies over the Coral Sea approximately 1000 km east northeast of Cairns. The low may cross the Capricornia or Wide Bay coast on Friday. The monsoon trough is likely to extend southwards of the low towards southeast Queensland late in the working week, resulting in severe weather near, and well to the south of the low.

Heavy rain and damaging winds are possible from the coast to the ranges between Rockhampton and Brisbane from Thursday, extending down to the state's southern border during Friday. The heavy rain may lead to flash flooding, with some 24 hour totals in excess of 300 mm. The damaging winds gusts may reach around 90 km/hr, mostly near the coast and ranges.

Water levels on the high tide are likely to exceed the highest tide of the year between Rockhampton and the Gold Coast from Thursday. Dangerous surf conditions and significant beach erosion are also expected between Rockhampton and the Gold Coast from Thursday.

Locations which may be affected include Rockhampton, Bundaberg, Gympie, the Sunshine Coast, Brisbane and the Gold Coast.

Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* Move your car under cover or away from trees.
* Secure loose outdoor items.
* Seek shelter, preferably indoors and never under trees.
* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
* Avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters.
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
* Surf Life Saving Australia recommends that you stay out of the water and stay well away from surf-exposed areas.
* Check your property regularly for erosion or inundation by sea water, and if necessary raise goods and electrical items.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.

The next warning is due to be issued by 3:30 am Wednesday.

Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at Australia's official weather forecasts & weather radar - Bureau of Meteorology or call 1300 659 219. The Bureau and Queensland Fire and Emergency Services would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
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Old Feb 17th 2015, 1:57 pm
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Default re: QLD SOUTH OF MACKAY/NORTH NSW - TROPICAL CYCLONE MARCIA

Originally Posted by SoCalDon
I spent some time today cleaning out the gutters and battening down the hatches (well, wedging an extra brick up against the shed door)

Don't suppose we will get it too bad but it does look like it will be really nasty for some
Its certainly looking nasty as the models get more certain of the movement and are agreeing that it looks like hitting the coast a lot further south than these systems usually do. There's a moderate chance a it reaching a Cat 1 cyclone strength before it crosses the coast and that will bring wind gusts and whip up the tides and the surf more than just a 'normal' Low with only heavy rain.
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Old Feb 18th 2015, 12:23 am
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Default Tropical Cyclone Watch - St Lawrence to Double Island Point

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2

Issued at 11:12 am EST on Wednesday 18 February 2015

A low in the Coral Sea may develop into a Tropical Cyclone as it moves southwestwards towards the Queensland coast.
Areas Affected:
Warning Zone

None.

Watch Zone

St Lawrence to Double Island Point.


Cancelled Zone

None.

Details of Tropical Low at 10:00 am EST [9:30 am CST]:

Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 16.2 degrees South 156.1 degrees East, estimated to be 910 kilometres northeast of Mackay and 1040 kilometres north northeast of Bundaberg.

Movement: south at 11 kilometres per hour.

A tropical low lies over the central Coral Sea. It is expected to shift towards the south southwest during today and Thursday, possibly intensifying to a Category 1 cyclone before crossing the east Queensland coast between St Lawrence and Double Island Point early Friday.


The tropical low will result in significant impacts over eastern Queensland districts south of about St Lawrence regardless of whether or not it transitions to a tropical cyclone, and therefore a separate Severe Weather Warning is current for areas south of Double Island Point and west to the Great Dividing Range.
Hazards:

GALES are expected to develop about coastal and island communities between St Lawrence and Double Island Point during Thursday evening.

Heavy rainfall will develop about coastal and island communities between St Lawrence and Double Island Point during Thursday, particularly over areas to the south of the system. A Flood Watch is current for the area.

Abnormally high tides will be experienced as the system approaches the coast. Water levels are expected to rise above the highest tide of the year on the high tide on Thursday.

Dangerous surf is expected to develop about exposed beaches south of Sandy Cape from early Thursday.
Recommended Action:

People between St Lawrence and Double Island Point should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

- Information is available from your local government

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland Fire and Emergency Service (QFES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).
Next Advice:

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm EST Wednesday 18 February.
Attached Thumbnails QLD SOUTH OF MACKAY/NORTH NSW - TROPICAL CYCLONE MARCIA-idq65001.png  
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Old Feb 18th 2015, 12:24 am
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Default re: QLD SOUTH OF MACKAY/NORTH NSW - TROPICAL CYCLONE MARCIA

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES and DANGEROUS SURF

For people in the Wide Bay and Burnett, Southeast Coast and parts of the
Capricornia and Darling Downs and Granite Belt Forecast Districts.


Issued at 5:19 am Wednesday, 18 February 2015.

Synoptic Situation:
A tropical low pressure system lies over the Coral Sea approximately 1150km north northeast of Bundaberg. The low has some possibility of developing into a tropical cylone as it shifts southwestwards towards the east Queensland coast and will be monitored carefully in the days ahead. The low is expected to cross the Capricornia or Wide Bay coast early on Friday. A trough will extend southwards from the low into the Capricornia and southeastern Queensland from Thursday.

Heavy rain and locally damaging wind gusts are possible from the coast to the ranges between Double Island Point and Brisbane from Thursday, extending to the state's southern border and into the eastern Darling Downs during Thursday night into Friday. The heavy rain may lead to flash flooding, with some 24 hour totals in excess of 300mm likely. Damaging wind gusts may reach around 90 km/hr, mostly near the coast and ranges.


Water levels on the high tide are likely to exceed the highest tide of the year between Double Island Point and the Gold Coast from Thursday. Dangerous surf conditions and beach erosion are also expected on exposed beaches south of Double Island Point.


A separate Tropical Cyclone Watch has been declared for coastal and island communities between St Lawrence and Double Island Point.

A flood watch is current for the Capricornia, Wide Bay and Burnett and Southeast Coast forecasts districts.

Locations which may be affected include Gympie, Toowoomba, the Lockyer Valley, the Sunshine Coast, Ipswich, Brisbane and the Gold Coast.

Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* Move your car under cover or away from trees.
* Secure loose outdoor items.
* Seek shelter, preferably indoors and never under trees.
* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
* Avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters.
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
* Surf Life Saving Australia recommends that you stay out of the water and stay well away from surf-exposed areas.
* Check your property regularly for erosion or inundation by sea water, and if necessary raise goods and electrical items.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.

The next warning is due to be issued by 11:20 am.
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Old Feb 18th 2015, 1:12 am
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Default re: QLD SOUTH OF MACKAY/NORTH NSW - TROPICAL CYCLONE MARCIA

  • The Coral Sea low will continue to move to the south-southwest over the next two days. Looks like the centre of the system will cross the coast between St Lawrence and Double Island Point, probably around Agnes Water/1770 on Friday morning.
  • There is a moderate chance the low could develop into a tropical cyclone before it crosses the coast.
  • Whether the system crosses the coast as a tropical low or a tropical cyclone the main impact will be heavy rainfall, flash flooding and river flooding, along with damaging wind gusts that could reach to around 90 km/h.
  • The area of severe weather and rainfall will extend well to the south of the actual low centre. As the system crosses the coast severe weather is expected to stretch from the low centre to the NSW border.
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Old Feb 18th 2015, 6:33 am
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Default re: QLD SOUTH OF MACKAY/NORTH NSW - TROPICAL CYCLONE MARCIA

Hmm, they currently seem to be saying cat 2 and hitting Rockhampton.



The more that track shifts south, the longer it has over water, and the more likely its landward track is likely to swipe Brisbane.
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Old Feb 18th 2015, 6:35 am
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Default re: QLD SOUTH OF MACKAY/NORTH NSW - TROPICAL CYCLONE MARCIA

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3

Tropical low expected to develop over the next 24 hours, category 2 Tropical Cyclone possible at landfall.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Sarina to Double Island Point.

Watch Zone
Adjacent inland areas from Yeppoon to Double Island Point.

Details of Tropical Low at 4:00 pm EST [3:30 pm CST]:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 110 kilometres of 17.1 degrees South 155.3 degrees East, estimated to be 790 kilometres northeast of Mackay and 920 kilometres north northeast of Bundaberg.

Movement: southwest at 22 kilometres per hour.

A tropical low lies over the central Coral Sea, and is slowly strengthening. During today, the low has curved onto a southwesterly track, and it is expected to maintain this general motion through to landfall on the eastern Queensland coast between St Lawrence and Hervey Bay early on Friday. The low is expected to slowly intensify, with a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone overnight into Thursday morning, and reaching category 2 intensity at landfall.

This system will result in significant impacts over eastern Queensland districts south of about St Lawrence regardless of whether or not it transitions to a tropical cyclone, and therefore a separate Severe Weather Warning is current for areas south of St Lawrence and west to the Great Dividing Range.

Hazards:
GALES are expected to develop about coastal and island communities between Sarina and Double Island Point on Thursday during the late afternoon or evening.

Heavy rainfall will develop about coastal and island communities between Sarina and Double Island Point during Thursday, particularly over areas to the south of the system. A Flood Watch is current for the area.

Abnormally high tides will be experienced on Thursday with water levels expected to rise above the highest tide of the year on the high tide.


Coastal residents between St Lawrence and Double Island Point are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Dangerous surf is expected to develop about exposed beaches south of Sandy Cape from early Thursday.

Recommended Action:
People between Sarina and Double Island Point should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 8 pm.

- Information is available from your local government

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland Fire and Emergency Service (QFES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 8:00 pm EST Wednesday 18 February.
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Old Feb 18th 2015, 6:38 am
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Default re: QLD SOUTH OF MACKAY/NORTH NSW - TROPICAL CYCLONE MARCIA

IDQ20032
Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Regional Office

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES and DANGEROUS SURF
For people in the
Capricornia,
Wide Bay and Burnett,
Southeast Coast and parts of the
Darling Downs and Granite Belt Forecast Districts.
Issued at 5:33 pm Wednesday, 18 February 2015.
Synoptic Situation:
A tropical low pressure system lies over the Coral Sea approximately 900km north northeast of Bundaberg. The low is expected to develop into a tropical cylone as it moves southwestwards towards the Queensland east coast, and forecast to cross the Capricornia coast early on Friday as a category 2 cyclone. A trough will extend southwards from the low/cyclone, and will move onto the Capricornia, Wide Bay and southeast Queensland coasts during Thursday.
St Lawrence to Double Island Point:
Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the trough early on Thursday morning, and are likely to move onto the coast between St Lawrence and Hervey Bay during Thursday morning. These thunderstorms may produce localised areas of destructive wind gusts in excess of 125 km/hr about coastal and island communities.
A Tropical Cyclone Warning is current from Sarina to Double Island Point, with a Watch current for the adjacent inland areas from Yeppoon to Double Island Point. Please refer to the Tropical Cyclone Track Map and Tropical Cyclone Advice for further details.
Double Island Point to the NSW border:
Heavy rain and locally damaging wind gusts are possible from the coast to the ranges between Double Island Point and Brisbane from Thursday, extending to the state's southern border and into the eastern Darling Downs during Thursday night into Friday. The heavy rain may lead to flash flooding, with some 24 hour totals in excess of 300mm likely. Damaging wind gusts may reach around 90 km/hr, mostly near the coast and ranges.

Water levels on the high tide are likely to exceed the highest tide of the year between Double Island Point and the Gold Coast from Thursday. Dangerous surf conditions and beach erosion are also expected on exposed beaches south of Double Island Point.
Riverine flooding:
A flood watch is current for the Capricornia, Wide Bay and Burnett, Southeast Coast and the Darling Downs & Granite Belt District forecast districts.
Locations which may be affected include Warwick, Gold Coast, Toowoomba, the Lockyer Valley, the Sunshine Coast, Brisbane, Caboolture, Ipswich, Gympie, Bundaberg, Gladstone, and Rockhampton.

Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* Move your car under cover or away from trees.
* Secure loose outdoor items.
* Seek shelter, preferably indoors and never under trees.
* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
* Avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters.
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
* Surf Life Saving Australia recommends that you stay out of the water and stay well away from surf-exposed areas.
* Check your property regularly for erosion or inundation by sea water, and if necessary raise goods and electrical items.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.
The next warning is due to be issued by 11:35 pm.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at Australia's official weather forecasts & weather radar - Bureau of Meteorology or call 1300 659 219. The Bureau and Queensland Fire and Emergency Services would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
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