fish.01

Maybe the immigrants don't want to have to up sticks when the drought breaks though

29palms

Not if your a Mackam, I would rather live in Iraq

fish.01

Don't Tackem him seriously.

balkanghost

Formerly from farm southern NSW......I am more positive

I would state that the situation has improved much since summer see three month rainfall deficit.

Some of the driest parts of SE Australia i.e. Murray region NSW, and Northern Victoria, have had above average rainfall, and if you included December 08 in data (at expense of January or February) rainfall is on track....provided it keeps on average for the next 2-3 years to make up less visible water table deficits....e.g. bore water.

Rainfall for previous 6 months in Victoria.

much healthier than the previous three years rainfall.

Appears more rainfall is expected in July, and of note is that even Lake Eyre has water for first time in 10 years.....bring it on....

Now till September is the traditionally higher rainfall season in SE Australia.

Think BOM is being very cautious, after many years of drought, as their own forecast of rainfall exceedance for August - October 2009 does not look too bad.

DownUnderPaddy

More rainfalll expected in July ? It better hurry up, its the 28th already !

They don't appear to be expecting it anytime soon in SA.
Farmers dealt blow with no clear forecast for rain
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/s...1-2682,00.html

The reports on the BOM site seem to be a little bit contradictory though.

While the 'forecast of rainfall exceedance for August - October 2009' appears to indicate a not too bad outlook, the 'National Seasonal Rainfall Outlook' just released this week (and linked from the very same page) appears to state the opposite....How does that work ?

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/rain_ahead.shtml
"The national outlook for total rainfall over the late winter to mid-spring period (August to October), shows moderate to strong shifts in the odds favouring a drier than normal season across much of eastern Australia.
An El Niño event looks to be developing across the Pacific: the latest outputs from computer models indicate it will reach peak intensity late in the year. El Niño events are usually (but not always) associated with below normal rainfall in the second half of the year across large parts of southern and inland eastern Australia."

Then there's this rather depressing article in Todays Age...
State faces 'worst-ever' fire season
Peter Ker
July 29, 2009
http://www.theage.com.au/national/st...0728-e06s.html

"VICTORIA faces a fire season of unprecedented danger, with the state’s fire officials expecting conditions to be worse than last summer when more than 170 lives were lost to bushfires."

p.s. Geologists consider "Lake Eyre as a cemetery for water with nowhere else to go". It has water this year purely as a result of eventually getting there from runoff of the QLD floods.

29palms

Jesus that article in the Age is scary!

I was lucky enough to chat with a senior guy at the BOM last week, and he claimed that from around the end of October, Melbourne and surrounds and most of VIC are likely to see very dry conditions with above average temps! I hope this is wrong but it is very favourable in looking like its going to be a long hot dry summer., with extreme bush fire danger

papilon

Hey but not to worry they are going to build a desal plant to produce water,
and guess what they are going to burn to produce the power to create the water, Brown Coal, yes the dirtiest most polluting form of fossil fuel, no rainfall due to drought caused almost certainly by global warming and the state government thinks its a great idea to burn more bown coal, oh yeah our power stations already run entirely on brown coal. Why not use recycled water first, if we really do reach the stage where we have to use desal then maybe we should look at nuclear energy, Australia has the worlds largest reserves of uranium and is by far the most suitable country in the world for nuclear energy, i know its not great but at least we are reducing greenhouse gasses.

bobbyftm

How about Scunthorpe or Peterborough ? Seriously our dams are 76% full now in Brisbane area so should be able to wash and shave for the next 6 years or so

WillBlack

Been drinking your wee?

MartinLuther

Good idea, replace one environment damaging fuel with another environment damaging fuel

DownUnderPaddy

Unfortunately, the latest stats released from the BOM yesterday confirm Melbournes title of "most rain starved capital city"....

http://www.theage.com.au/national/me...0729-e1kr.html

Statistics released by the Bureau of Meteorology yesterday support the findings, with Melbourne clearly Australia’s most rain-starved capital city this year.

With just 158 millimetres falling in the city gauge, Melbourne has been almost twice as parched as the next driest city, Adelaide, which has received 307 millimetres since January 1.

Sydney has received more than four times as much rain as Melbourne, mocking Victoria’s reputation as 'the garden state’.

....the absence of rain had dried the Victorian landscape to such an extent that official methods for predicting fire behaviour could now prove inaccurate.

papilon

Piss Off

sr71

I, for one, am actually enjoying the drought. It's been a lovely winter so far and I'm looking forward to a long dry hot summer. We won't run out of water and eventually the government will put in alternative water sourcing methods.

Bushfires will happen and farmers will go out of business, while I feel sorry for them as individuals the bottom line is mother nature is the root cause and nobody can really conquer her.

balkanghost

For Melbourne water not big issue if less rainfall in Melbourne proper, it is the dam catchments in the ranges to the NE-E which provide inflows to dams.

Many would argue that Lake Eyre is important not just for run off but as a source of evaporation for rain systems moving across southern NSW, helps to induce rain. Yes, otherwise scenic birdlife, bit of fishing etc.

Regarding bush fire alert, after last season and (still ongoing?) commission of inquiry into Victorian bushfires which found many communication of warnings from state agencies to be too vague (plus dismissing need for off season burn offs in state parks etc.), they may now be going over the top with warnings (e.g. Bird Flu, unemployment, etc......).

Bushfires were tragic but living in barely accessible bush land with record temperatures, predicted wind changes and low humidity (many if not most had never experienced bushfires before)....... was unclear for residents what to do, i.e. stay or flee. From inquiry backtracking by senior fire officials now stating that staying is not such a good idea.... (moi would have been out of there quicker than a rat up a drain pipe, early a.m. or the night before, the dreaded hot north wind....)

MartinLuther

I'm not sure backtracking is the right word. The senior fire officials have never said that staying is a good idea. What they've promoted in the past is to make the decision to stay or go has to be made early (and that the worst thing you can do is to leave at the last moment). I don't think there's going to be a change of policy but more of a clarification (repackaging) of what the policy means i.e. clarification that 'stay or go' does not mean your house can always be defended.