jad n rich

seems to have moved from 53/54 against GBP to 56 ish?

worth a buy? I am pondering after missing the shortlived 57 in september.

china trade deal, any other big factors to whack it around ?

Amazulu

My opinion FWIW:
As usual it is all about the USD
Things like the FTW are a sideshow. Currencies trading against each other (apart from the USD) are also sideshows
Medium term the USD is going to increase which will drive down the AUD and this will have an affect on AUD/GBP
AUD is within its 'normal' range against the USD and GBP and I can't see that changing any time soon
Short term? Who knows but I think the AUD will fluctuate within its range for a while
Long term? Who knows. Nobody does

Bermudashorts

What are you trying to achieve? Change money for a holiday or something longer term? I want to send some money back to the UK at the moment and in the short term seems like a reasonable time to do it.

jad n rich

Long term insurance really against the AUD dive bombing. We travel a lot and once youngest is settled in UNI 2015, I plan to start spending 4 - 6 months overseas each year.

So i get chunks out now and again.

Just keep an eye on buying opportunities really and its spiked a bit.

Bermudashorts

In that case, if I were in your shoes, I would be taking these opportunities. The AUD is strong at the moment, longer term my guess would be it moving back towards the long term averages, which is certainly over $2 to the £1. I wouldn't call that dive bombing though.

But fact is, nobody know ps what is going to happen and, with my professional head on, I would call what you are doing "speculation" not " insurance".

Beoz

What is long term? the 10 year average is 0.51. The 5 year average is 0.6. We are right in the middle of that now.

Bermudashorts

I was thinking more like twenty to thirty years. We all know that AUD has been strong the last four or five years.

Beoz

Ah ok. Yes the 20 year average may be lower.

BadgeIsBack

Indeed - seems like a time ago now when you got almost 3 dollars to the pound which is certainly reflected in a 20 yr average!

GarryP

Basically the BOE dumped on the idea that they would have to finally slightly bump interest rates in the near to medium term (they said inflation would remain low).

Hence the premium that was in the market in light of a potential for non-zero interest rates in the UK disappeared into 2015.

OzTennis

More to do with weakening Yen and greenback, better than expected Aussie data/outlook and the free trade agreement signed with China than BOE machinations or everything combined if you prefer. The notion that the pound will rise above $2 as some sort of natural par or a 20 year average or whatever seems highly unlikely in the short and medium term - who knows long term. For me, I've been factoring in $1.80 as a recent par it is oscillating around - certainly for the last 6 to 9 months.

It's interesting that an expert predicted back in August 2014 that the AUD was likely to fall from the then rate of $1.78. It's $1.79 3 months later.

Australian Dollar: 2 Reasons Why Falls are Currently Being Forecast for AUD

GarryP

Nah, if you look at the timing, the move from 1.85 to 1.79 was coincident with the BOE announcement on inflation and thus interest rates.

UPDATE 1-Sterling falls after BoE rate hike expectations recede | Reuters

Bank of England sees inflation falling below 1% in the next six months | This is Money

Not saying there aren't other medium term things going on, but this change was down to the BOE talking down the pound. It does kind of point up that when the US and UK are forced into shifting their rates, the exchange rate will rebalance to over £1:$2

bcworld

Latest bout of poor Aussie economic data has the rate at $1.86 now.

papilon

Having recently relocated to the middle east and now being paid in US$ it's been a nice increase from when we did the original figures. Swings and roundabouts and I remember not that long ago many of the so called experts predicting the AU $ would stay over 1.10 against the US$. Remember 1 guy even predicting the AU$ would hit AU$ 1.50 against the US$.