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Old Oct 27th 2006, 1:20 am   #1
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Default Drought

Apparently this drought is now the worst one since my time here in Australia. There was a bad one back in 83, I'd been here 3 years then. It was very noticeable at the time, with big cracks in garden beds, Dust everywhere, and very cheap meat prices. The Cheap Lamb and Beef coming as Farmers and producers offloaded their stock as they couldn't afford to feed them. The farmers have also been offloading their stock this year, but it hasn't been reflected in the prices for some reason.

For the first time I can recall, wheat will probably have to be imported into Aussie next year, as there will be a 42pct drop in production.

Ballarat here in Victoria is in a bad way, with only 13pct water reserve and on current stage 4 restrictions could well run out of water in less than 9 months.

With two interest rate rises on the horizon and fresh food prices set to sky rocket, is anyone else concerned. ?

It's weird but it all seemed far more serious back in 83 yet on paper and looking at the whole situation this drought should be treated as far worse.

Wonder why it isn't ?
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Old Oct 27th 2006, 2:22 am   #2
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Default Re: Drought

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Originally Posted by ozzieeagle
Apparently this drought is now the worst one since my time here in Australia. There was a bad one back in 83, I'd been here 3 years then. It was very noticeable at the time, with big cracks in garden beds, Dust everywhere, and very cheap meat prices. The Cheap Lamb and Beef coming as Farmers and producers offloaded their stock as they couldn't afford to feed them. The farmers have also been offloading their stock this year, but it hasn't been reflected in the prices for some reason.

For the first time I can recall, wheat will probably have to be imported into Aussie next year, as there will be a 42pct drop in production.

Ballarat here in Victoria is in a bad way, with only 13pct water reserve and on current stage 4 restrictions could well run out of water in less than 9 months.

With two interest rate rises on the horizon and fresh food prices set to sky rocket, is anyone else concerned. ?

It's weird but it all seemed far more serious back in 83 yet on paper and looking at the whole situation this drought should be treated as far worse.

Wonder why it isn't ?
Cant comment or compare at all to the 83 drought, however we saw areas in drought 5 years ago, so yes current drought really concerns me, as those areas and more are still in drought. Plus the government seems to think billion dollar band aids are the solution, they dont seem that willing to accept the fact climate change may make many of those areas unsuitable for stock or farming in our time anyway.

Food, did you know it went up 9.9% this QUARTER, what sort of increases are we to expect once the drought hits then.

Farmers are selling sheep around 50c each, yet meat is nearly 3 times the price it was when we arrived in year 2000.

Water, we are lucky no restrictions, water levels in other places are as you say 13% and below

Interest rates, if we get one more now and agan in february that is seven in two years. It is already affecting the housing market, god only knows why australia is still importing housing related tradesmen.

All of these things will affect the economy, and our pockets. We are watching the currency daily, we like many converted with great glee into aussie dollars, if the arse falls out of the economy and dollar we would be stuffed.

Another thing concerns me too, the entire nation is encouraged to provide for retirement via superannuation, thats all whoo hoo at the moment too, what happens exactly if the share market crashes, markets dont just rise do they.

Never mind we still have the beach, well unless a flippin cyclone hits
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Old Oct 27th 2006, 2:37 am   #3
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Default Re: Drought

What really gets me about this one, as opposed to the 83. Is in 83 the papers were full of it, the TV programs were having in depth reviews almost nightly. Yet this is supposedly the most serious one ever.

Either it is or it isn't and if it is, why is it being played down. ?

I'm going to find some old codgers and find out what they reckon.
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Old Oct 27th 2006, 2:50 am   #4
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Default Re: Drought

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Originally Posted by ozzieeagle
What really gets me about this one, as opposed to the 83. Is in 83 the papers were full of it, the TV programs were having in depth reviews almost nightly. Yet this is supposedly the most serious one ever.

Either it is or it isn't and if it is, why is it being played down. ?

I'm going to find some old codgers and find out what they reckon.


Our old codger neighbour, ex grazier sold about 2 zillion acres as they do, but did it 3 years ago, he claims if he did it now he wouldnt have been able to sell it, its basically worthless now.

You know why its not taken as that serious, how many people have seen any drought land ?? Were discussing this on here, but how many people here are even aware what the wheat belts and stock properties look like, I bet very very few. Many poeple think no rain is good, define it as great weather umm little trip out west needed perhaps.

Now food has started to rise to such an extent people cant help but notice it there is a bit of media, it seems it only concerns people if it affects their pocket.

I reckon most city folk, aussies included need a bit of a tour out west and a bit of a ponder on where the next lot of meat and wheat is going to come from :scared:

Australias got about 21 m population, only a tiny portion of that live more than 2 hours from the few major cities. Probably a bit harsh but do 20 million mr and mrs legolands awating arrival of their new plasma TV really care whats happening to the few on the land? Any concern seems to be more "can I fill my swimming pool" rather than a deep understanding of what this will do to the economy.
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Old Oct 27th 2006, 3:06 am   #5
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Default Re: Drought

Quote:
Originally Posted by jad n rich
Cant comment or compare at all to the 83 drought, however we saw areas in drought 5 years ago, so yes current drought really concerns me, as those areas and more are still in drought. Plus the government seems to think billion dollar band aids are the solution, they dont seem that willing to accept the fact climate change may make many of those areas unsuitable for stock or farming in our time anyway.

Food, did you know it went up 9.9% this QUARTER, what sort of increases are we to expect once the drought hits then.

Farmers are selling sheep around 50c each, yet meat is nearly 3 times the price it was when we arrived in year 2000.

Water, we are lucky no restrictions, water levels in other places are as you say 13% and below

Interest rates, if we get one more now and agan in february that is seven in two years. It is already affecting the housing market, god only knows why australia is still importing housing related tradesmen.

All of these things will affect the economy, and our pockets. We are watching the currency daily, we like many converted with great glee into aussie dollars, if the arse falls out of the economy and dollar we would be stuffed.

Another thing concerns me too, the entire nation is encouraged to provide for retirement via superannuation, thats all whoo hoo at the moment too, what happens exactly if the share market crashes, markets dont just rise do they.

Never mind we still have the beach, well unless a flippin cyclone hits
Bloody hell, Jad, bet I can jump ship before you can.

To answer your questions wait and see (!)

The thing about super, and just about every other money spinner in the Western world is that it's all geared to how long you are in the market for. The market has been going up and down for years. That's why my advisor bod (in the UK) told me to get in at 25 not 30 though I was wise to have got in at 20. If super doesn't do it, nothing will, and the whole bloody western world will be scratching their heads as they are at the moment about aging populations.

Living near a town with bush and drought experience I will ask. But you know how the old fogies like to yarn.
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Old Oct 27th 2006, 3:13 am   #6
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Default Re: Drought

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Originally Posted by BadgeIsBack
Bloody hell, Jad, bet I can jump ship before you can.

To answer your questions wait and see (!)

The thing about super, and just about every other money spinner in the Western world is that it's all geared to how long you are in the market for. The market has been going up and down for years. That's why my advisor bod (in the UK) told me to get in at 25 not 30 though I was wise to have got in at 20. If super doesn't do it, nothing will, and the whole bloody western world will be scratching their heads as they are at the moment about aging populations.

Living near a town with bush and drought experience I will ask. But you know how the old fogies like to yarn.

Supers another deep discussion we could do Thing is when most people retire they need the money, I mean if I retire at 65 and the share markets in some sort of bear cycle, will I want to go never mind just keep working till I am 83

Probably not.
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Old Oct 27th 2006, 3:19 am   #7
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Default Re: Drought

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Originally Posted by jad n rich
Supers another deep discussion we could do Thing is when most people retire they need the money, I mean if I retire at 65 and the share markets in some sort of bear cycle, will I want to go never mind just keep working till I am 83

Probably not.
Who knows. Maybe you can even borrow against a perceived value. People will be having to deal with this sort of thing as the world changes.

Alot of people are choosing to work longer already - it all depends.
And relying on the state as some people are doing is also a non starter - which we're being told now not to /or is not provided for (in aus).

I would have thought that super will outperform any national scheme - where it still exists. Can an expert tell me why a lot of people were told to contract out of SERPS - is it for tax reasons or just that SERPS won't cut it in the long run and if you can afford a private pension there's no point in relying on the state.
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Old Oct 27th 2006, 3:20 am   #8
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Default Re: Drought

Quote:
Originally Posted by BadgeIsBack
Bloody hell, Jad, bet I can jump ship before you can.


Living near a town with bush and drought experience I will ask. But you know how the old fogies like to yarn.
Yes please do Badge, Because It's either worse than 83 or it Isn't. Maybe 83 affected Victoria worse. BTW I clearly remember at that time, that within two weeks, the price of a side of lamb dropped about 60 - 70 pct... No kidding. One week is was about 24 bucks, next it was 10.


As for super, if thats stuffed, then it will be stuffed right around the world, and we will all be ...... errrrm.... fecked.... lol
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Old Oct 27th 2006, 3:21 am   #9
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Default Re: Drought

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Originally Posted by ozzieeagle
Yes please do Badge, Because It's either worse than 83 or it Isn't. Maybe 83 affected Victoria worse.


As for super, if thats stuffed, then it will be stuffed right around the world, and we will all be ...... errrrm.... fecked.... lol
Heard that before. Careful, you'll turn this into a non Aus vs Aus debate. Got to be a bit more cautious me old boy.
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Old Oct 27th 2006, 3:25 am   #10
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Default Re: Drought

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Heard that before. Careful, you'll turn this into a non Aus vs Aus debate. Got to be a bit more cautious me old boy.
My super is 40 pct on International shares, well the part I rolled over from the gas and fuel. I see it totally as a world thing.

Seem my edit in my previous post re Lamb prices back in 83.
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Old Oct 27th 2006, 3:31 am   #11
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Default Re: Drought

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Originally Posted by ozzieeagle

Because It's either worse than 83 or it Isn't. Maybe 83 affected Victoria worse.
This droughts about to go into its what 6th or seventh summer, was the 83 drought the end of several years of drough or a shorter one? Was so much of the country in drought as well or just VIC this one is covering most of the country.

Were at the end of winter too, take brisbane, not got hot at all yet, no humidity nothing, very mild, but summers not long off, as soon as that happens most states will get more concerned.
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Old Oct 27th 2006, 3:35 am   #12
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Default Re: Drought

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Originally Posted by ozzieeagle

I clearly remember at that time, that within two weeks, the price of a side of lamb dropped about 60 - 70 pct... No kidding. One week is was about 24 bucks, next it was 10.
In 2006 sheep at sales have dropped from $60 to 50C, yet meats costing us more Plain profitering the only person making a loss is the farmer.
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Old Oct 27th 2006, 3:50 am   #13
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Default Re: Drought

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Originally Posted by jad n rich
You know why its not taken as that serious, how many people have seen any drought land ?? Were discussing this on here, but how many people here are even aware what the wheat belts and stock properties look like, I bet very very few. Many poeple think no rain is good, define it as great weather umm little trip out west needed perhaps.
But surely that hasn't changed - the population has always been on the coast and I would have thought people back in the early 80's might have been slightly less aware of conditions on the stations because the TV's companies couldn't show it so easily - lack of satellites etc.

I obviously have no idea about the 83 drought and to be honest only know what I see on the news now. We are about to go to level 4 restrictions but it is vibrantly green around here and our dam is as near full as it can be. This particular area has had a fair amount of rain in the year I've been here - short of spending a few weeks driving around inland, I can't possibly imagine how bad it is in some areas and the TV wouldn't be able to do it justice.
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Old Oct 27th 2006, 6:29 am   #14
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Default Re: Drought

I believe that this is the worst drought in 100 years. It might have been alleviated somewhat if the conservation work had been carried out on the Clarence. The Fraser government set up a committee to plan this and call for tenders, Unfortunately, our late, not lamented, PM Mr Hawke disbanded the committee and nothing was done!! I think J&R that you might be surprised at the number of Aussies and long term expats who are very concerned with the plight of the bush,
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Old Oct 27th 2006, 8:16 am   #15
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Default Re: Drought

For once this is a well discussed and balanced thread. And an interest to read!

I live in South Australia - to be exact 40 k outside of Keith which has really suffered. I do see, on a daily basis, what drought striken land looks like, and cattle and sheep. It's awful. The other thing people may not notice either is the effect on soil ... ours is pure sand in many of the paddocks and it's just blowing away! (great exfoliation! ) We do our best to help minimise the damage but it's very difficult.

We're lucky in that we have access to bore water so unlike some we can irrigate some areas, but on the large scale we're talking it seems soooo small! However we're still having to supplimentry feed cattle as there's simply no grazing left, which adds equipment costs, buying in feed, extra man power and fuel costs too. We've had to move some 900 calves out of area to be grazed which again adds massive costs.

In answer to prices in supermarkets though ... processing meat takes man power, fuel and water - these costs haven't dropped they've increased. We've got two big meat processing businesses locally and they're struggling too. And sadly at the end of the day whether its Tescos or Woolworths they don't always pass on the difference to the consumer!

Of the 6 families on this station there's only two who have any rainwater left in their tanks - we're one of them and I'm thankful for that but concious that it's not going to last for more than 6 weeks really and we use bore water for all that we can so I'm praying for rain for soooo many reasons!

On the positive I think this country is beautiful and I've only seen such a small amount of it so far, I look forward to a wet spring when ALL the flowers and native trees can really show themselves - the jacaranda and bottle brushes are still amazing anyway!
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