Pollyana

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth to Point Stuart, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.
A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal areas from Port Keats to Daly River Mouth and Point Stuart to Goulburn Island .

At this stage the system is expected to pass Darwin on Wednesday morning as a Tropical Low and deepen into a Tropical Cyclone on Wednesday night or Thursday morning, threatening the Tiwi Islands.

There's also a Tropical Low lurking off the north coast of WA, may develop into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday well off the northwest coast and might turn more southerly on Thursday. A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Onslow to Coral Bay.


Sounds like there's going to be a race to see who gets TC Carlos and who gets TC Dianne Stay safe up there ..........

geordie mandy

its a bit scary at the moment. finally got my kids to bed and weve prepped as much as we can. Knowing its not another big cyclone is reasuring but as this is my first expereince of a cyclone im doing ok.

I shall let you know how we get on when i can next get on line. Have intermittent internet at mo via a lap top when its working lol
Mandy

DeadVim

Stay safe

Pollyana

WOndered if you were still about

At least you're starting off gradually with a little one Take care and hope you and the house come through it unscathed

Pollyana

Pretty wild up in Darwin now by all accounts. almost 300mm of rain since 9am yesterday and still chucking it down. Wind gusts up to 100 km/ph, and the wind and rain is likely to continue throughout tomorrow.
Lots of powerlines down too.

lou1003

Yeah a LOT of roads are flooded.
This morning seems ok, so far, but looking at the BOM radar, it looks like I'm in the middle of the "eye" so not sure how it is for everyone else (I'm in Nightcliff/Coconut Grove area).

Went out last night to get pizza (!) and it was horrendous to drive - I will not be going out again! There's lots of trees down. We lost power for a few hours last night, but it's on again now.

I can't believe the wind and rain, and it's apparently not even a cyclone yet. I can't imagine what Yasi was like which was so much worse!

My partner works at a search and rescue company here with planes, and they are having to take their plane to a safer place. So he's going and I have my first cyclone alone
But I have a friend here, who didn't want to stay in her house as it's old (ours is sturdy!). Might have another girlfriend and dog coming too so she's not alone.
We have beer
(and water, torch, batteries and all the important stuff too!)

Pollyana

Sounds pretty wild, and no it hadn't reached cyclone level then.
Became Tropical Cyclone Carlos early this morning and has a rather interesting current predicted track - if it follows this you're in for plenty more horrendous weather.
===============================================


A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth to
Goulburn Island, including Darwin, Croker Island and the Tiwi Islands.
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Port Keats to Daly River Mouth.
At 9:30 am CST Tropical Cyclone Carlos, Category 1 was estimated to be 3
kilometres northeast of Darwin and 110 kilometres south southeast of Snake Bay and moving northeast at 5 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is expected to take a south or southwestward track tomorrow after moving slowly into the Beagle Gulf today.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced on the coast between Darwin and Point Stuart. GALES are expected to develop over the southern Tiwi Islands later today, and may extend further south to Daly River Mouth tonight and as far as Port Keats on Thursday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop over the southern Tiwi Islands early Thursday if the system continues to intensify.
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may extend to the coast between Darwin and Daly River Mouth later Thursday or early Friday.


Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Point Stuart and Daly River Mouth, including the Tiwi Islands. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN is causing widespread flooding in the northern Darwin-Daly District and the Tiwi Islands.

seaangel

All quiet out here in Rosebery at the moment. Reckon it is definitely the calm before the storm!

Turban Explorer

It shouldn't be too bad and Darwin is built strongly after Tracy. Think of 'Carlos' as a big Mexican sombrero spinning around for a while and don't be shy of a few tequila's to calm the nerves. Good Luck

lou1003

I'm not too concerned - our house is strong.
The wind is definitely pretty strong though. It's more the inconvenience - the weather and the flooding!

I have just cracked open my first beer, and there are 4 of us here now "camping out" - one female friend in quite an old house who didn't want to be alone, and her friend from work who is on a motorbike and didn't want to ride home or be alone!
Turns out my boyfriend is here too as they couldn't evacuate their plane in time - winds are too much to take off now and the runway has had a bit of flooding

Pollyana

If the house is "post Tracy"it should be fine - I think they were allbuilt to Cat 5 standard after she hit, and this should be a 2 at worst, though the 16.46 track map is totally different from previous and it may only go Cat 1

lou1003

It is post Tracy (possibly 1995 ish), but there were some houses that survived Tracy, and not all were built to category 5 standard after. I think the standards have changed over time, with the standards getting higher and higher, so a lot of properties are actually rated to category 3 by today's standards.

Not sure how much truth there is in that though, just hear-say.

Yeah, this shouldn't be any worse than a category 2, but every cyclone track map that has been issued by the BOM over the last 24 hours has been completely different. It seems they don't really know what this one is doing.... Seriously, the track has changed dramatically with every prediction! We last had a figure of 8 type track forecast, but now back down to a category one with a simpler path... I don't think we'll truly know it's route until it makes the next big move though... it's pretty slow moving and is just over the top of us!

njk435

It's been very quiet here in Palmerston, plenty of rain and wind last night but very calm today. We seem to be in the 'eye' of the system at the moment.

There's been a few trees down in the area, luckily we got rid of five 20 metre Coconut palms and a mahogany from our yard last week - more luck than judgment though.

Pollyana

Someone on the Weatherzone forum was saying that Mahoganys are bad news in cyclones - he had three snapped off like matchsticks during yasi and he was nowhere near the centre with the strongest winds. Track maps are weird for this one, but at least he has looped to the south of Darwin and not to the north, that's probably what's keeping him to a Cat 1, I guess.....

njk435

Most people up here are not happy with mahogany trees, a boy was killed by a falling branch while at school a couple of years back, plus every storm we have a couple fall down around the city. Wrong tree for the area - stick with native trees I say