Pollyana

http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST [11:30 am EST] Saturday 16 January 2010
A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal
The low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 36 to 48 hours.

There is the possibility of a Tropical Cyclone developing but GALES are not
expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.


May not come to much, but one of the models has it developing to a 1 or 2, and predicted to turn towards Cape York, and cross it in the Weipa - Lockhart River area.

Couple of other interesting lows building out in the Coral Sea too........

The A Team

how interesting to Townsville?

Pollyana

Well......depends which model you look at. There are several different computer modelling systems. If you use www.weatherzone.com.au as wll as the BoM site, you can access the models by becoming a member.

There is a low in the Coral Sea that we are watching, but it will hopefully move to the Southeast, thats the expectation. Nothing else definite on the immediate horizon - as in the next 5 days or so - but as you go into the next week it could get interesting. Best I can say at the moment, I'm afraid, but I'll keep you posted.

This one is a POSSIBLE image for around the 28th Jan according to one of the US models. THIS IS JUST A COMPUTER MODEL, please no-one take this as a forecast as it is too far ahead to be classed as that.

The A Team

thanks Polly, will be checking my cyclone kit tomorrow

Bix

Don't forget the kite.

wanderingwombat

The usual far northern kit contains a lot of slabs, just in case the roads are cut by flooding, of course.

WW

Pollyana

Naturally! Got to have the essential supplies!

wanderingwombat

I notice the State Disaster Management Group is still recommending to shelter in cellars and to hang on to water pipes.

The nearest to a cellar in Far North QLD would be a basement carpark which are usually found in the Cairns CBD or North Cairns or Port Douglas. This is the last place you would want to be if there was a storm surge with the cyclone.

As for water pipes, copper or plastic just dont seem to have the neccessary strength to me.

WW

Pollyana

I will pass on your comments to my boss who has just wandered in (gawd knows what he's doing here on a Saturday night apart from getting in my way!)

It is a bit of a problem with Cairns - cyclone shleters in storm surge zones and high ground to escape the surges, but where you get blown away.


Some good stuff here, especially for those who haven't experienced a cyclone season before.- - http://www.emergency.qld.gov.au/emq/css/beprepared.asp


(I did suggest beer and wine as an inclusion in the Emergency and Evacuation packs, but got over-ruled )

Pollyana

Latest word from the Bureau is a slow moving system, probably becoming a cyclone tomorrow, coastal crossing likely near Weipa on Tuesday afternoon at present rate of progress.


Possibility of a low developing in the Coral Sea to affect Townsville is now becoming increasingly likely for next week (27-28-29th??) as other models are tending to move towards that scenario.

Current track map for what will probably become Cyclone Magda.....

wanderingwombat

There is a cyclone shelter in Cairns?

It must be one of the numerous Beattie Cat 5 cyclone shelters scattered along the coast.

If your community doesnt have a Beattie shelter just pitch a tent in the yard as it is currently rated stronger

WW

Pollyana

I'm not going to comment on that in case the boss reads it.......

wanderingwombat

Rabc

The moral of this story (as far as I am concerned) is "don't mock those who are snowed in at home as the weather will come and bite you on the bum"

Here we go again.

Don't forget to get some cash out (smallish notes) as the ATMs and EFPOS will fail in a blackout and you won't be able to buy anything even though it there

Good luck all, see you out there

Bix

That could be smack on top of our minesite.
80k North of Weipa.