Steve_

U.S. short sellers betting on Canadian housing crash: ‘An accident waiting to happen’ | National Post

But... I don't think anyone would say Vancouver has anywhere near as diverse an economy as Manhattan and London, which are both financial centres.

I personally think it will be somewhere between the two extremes, it probably won't be a dramatic crash but when interest rates go up, it's going to slow down.

The other factor is that since the IIP ended and various other tightening of immigration laws, there is less interest from the Chinese.

MarylandNed

Interesting article. I think it's obvious that Vancouver does not have the economy to support the high property prices which are being propped up by investors. Vancouver salaries are too low compared with the property prices and that's why much of the middle class is being forced out. Most people moving to New York or London from less expensive cities are looking for a salary hike to offset the higher cost of living. I know people who live in Toronto who were offered significant salary cuts to move to Vancouver. It will be interesting to see which way this goes.

not2old

According to the BC real estate association in the link below, not about to crash soon

Page 8 of the report is for Vancouver. Other pages for different areas of BC

http://www.bcrea.bc.ca/docs/economic...ngforecast.pdf

JamesM

"Realtors say nothing to worry about! Shock horror!"

I worked with Estate Agents in the UK for several years. They were the last people to understand the economics that influenced the housing market.

not2old

Good to see someone on BE with industry related experience

from post #1, what would be your predication of the Vancouver housing market in the next 12 -36 months- up, down or sideways?

JamesM

No idea to be honest. Mainly because I don't reside in Vancouver and don't keep to much of an eye on what goes on there.

Toronto has a two tier market of houses and condo's. I could see houses here holding their value and increasing (simply because very few are built and the space in the existing is highly desirable) and condo's falling off a cliff in the next 5 years but many will argue with me that that is what people have been saying for years.

The real estate industry I've always found to be about fuelling the market with positive news and distorted facts and statistics.

You see it in UK property all the time with the various indexes publishing stats that always seem to be far more bullish than what the land registry office index confirms some months later.

The banks, estate agents, property portals, various associations all have too much invested in real estate much like the general populace. They'll do their best to rig the game as long as possible.

I'd have a guess that as long as interest rates stay relatively low we'll see a "soft landing".

People forget that if your house isn't moving up at 2.5 to 3 percent a year you are actually really losing money in real terms. And certainly once you factor in maintenance costs on top of that.

3 years of a property value remaining flat is actually some what of a correction. That is assuming average wages during that time move at a speed similar to inflation.

scrubbedexpat091

Not Vancouver proper, but just as hot a real estate market (maybe hotter even.) and single family homes and town homes are going up and being built, condos have been flat lined for a few years now, and depending on building, may have gone down in value, still demand, but they just don't move much value wise it seems.

Mobile homes are idiotically over valued though, for not owning the land, I think the 100,000+ to buy one (and the parks are not very nice) and then still pay high rent for the pad, makes no sense to me, but maybe I am missing something when it comes to mobile homes?

maccan

Interested to see how this relates to Australia too, similar economies and similar growth in property

MikeUK

One thing often not factored in for Vancouver
Is that its an end destination for wealthy retirees
Weather is tolerable, life expectancy higher, things to do, places to eat out at....

Its a nice place to go, so this non-earning group bring money in from outside destinations which prop up the market

MrHyperPants

At one of the Donnelley Groups pubs.

Steve_

Not imx, a lot of the people I meet in Kelowna and Victoria are people who retired there from Vancouver. Just doesn't make any sense to stay in Vancouver where your house is worth a mint and the traffic is appalling.

There might be people who decide to stick it out after they retire, but move there? I doubt it. No logic to it.

jerry brewer

Hi
I have seen virtually the same stories for the last eight years i have been here
but the prices keep going up and the people keep coming.
i will believe a crash when i see the for sale signs staying up for longer
jerry

jerry brewer

Hi,
And ex pats who move here for a new life
jerry

getoutofbritainquick

Jerry how did you end up in Vancouver? Thought the interior was the place to be? We never got to the Okanagan and ended up on VI such is fate. We are just watching the local Mayor destroy his thief dom. Been in power for 22 years and about time he went before there is nothing left to take. Locals think he is good but do not know any different. By the way he has made a fortune with his businesses in the same municipality.

MikeUK

The wealthy from other big Cities

We had a few from TO sell up and move west

Traffic's comparable and retirees, don't tend to move during peak period anyway
And the weather will be an improvement for many older people not wanting to snow bird but avoid the icy winters