glendem4

Bank of England Deputy Governor Sir. David Ramsden said in a Sunday Times article over the weekend that interest rates will need to rise faster than was previously assumed given that inflation remains at 3% and wage pressures are on the rise.
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gb...eigh-in-europe

£1 = $1.78

europlatus

Are we expecting to break 1.80 in the next couple of months?

glendem4

Traders continued selling the Canadian Dollar after the release of Q4 GDP undershot expectations last Friday.

The Pound rose versus the Canadian Dollar after traders sold the latter due to lower-than-expected growth in Q4 following the release of figures which showed the economy grew by only 1.7% compared to the year before, undershooting, substantially, forecasts which has expected a 2.0% growth rate.

The previous quarter's growth rate was also revised down to 1.5% from a first estimate of 1.7%

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/ca...of-q4-gdp-data

£1 = $1.79

Edo

The CAD will most probably lose some more value even if its short term if (when?) Mr. Trump proceeds with his steel and aluminium tariffs.

Pretty Flowers

As someone moving back to Blighty later this year, I keep crying at the exchange rate falling. Especially as we'll have close to $1m in equity from our house sale, that we're depending on for our new home in London. If only we'd moved back last year, instead of this year.

However, it's still much more advantageous than the 1 pound = $2.20 that I got when we came here. I guess you win some and you lose some.

glendem4

The Canadian Dollar pared broad-based gains over its international rivals Wednesday after the Bank of Canada held its cash rate steady in March and warned of uncertainty created by Washington’s increasingly belligerent trade policy.

Governing council members voted to hold the cash rate at 1.25%, as was widely expected by the market, in order to further observe the economic effect of the BoC’s decision to raise rates for a third time in nine months back in January.

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/ca...ad-seen-higher
£1 = $1.80

glendem4

The £ is now in the middle of the 5 year range $1.53-$2.07

GBP/CAD upside requires the exchange rate to stay above $1.77 with a potential target of $1.90 this year if BrExit goes well and the Bank of England raise interest rates in May and November and/or NAFTA breaks down due to new tariffs imposed by the USA.

Hurlabrick

GBP = $1.8075 - nice! (Thought I would save glendem4 the trouble

I would take this now if I could, but UK house sale still in progress and if all goes well (does it ever??), might have the funds by mid-May

glendem4

Canadian Dollar Slumps After Poloz Speech Augurs Fears of Slower Rate Rises .....

Trade tensions mean the Canadian Dollar is at risk of the Bank of Canada stepping back from raising interest rates in the future.

The Canadian Dollar slumped heavily against its international rivals Tuesday 13th March after a speech by Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz left markets fearing the central bank could raise interest rates at a slower pace this year than previously thought.

Poloz gave a speech on the modern labour market at Queen’s University in Ontario, where he argued that youth participation in the labour market could be greatly improved, placing a question mark over the idea that the Canadian economy is close to full employment.

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/cad

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/gbpcad=x?ltr=1

£1 = $1.81

glendem4

£1 = $1.82

not2old

dont understand how this works in the real world for retail customers, net-net in pocket, after all fees?

is there a huge difference on the buy or sell in your previous link for GBP-CDN-GBP compared to Transferwise or other FX retail exchange?

https://transferwise.com/ca/

scrubbedexpat134

To quote Harold Wilson(or was it Mike Yarwood) "it wont affect the pound in your pocket"

glendem4

Transferwise charges 0.45% of the amount that's converted + £ 0.80 GBP for sums over £3000. OFX.com fee is 0.4%

More info at https://www.icomparefx.com/transferwise-vs-ofx/

glendem4

Lloyds Bank forecasts the Pound will fall from 1.8232 Thursday to 1.71 before the 2018 year is out as trade concerns melt away and markets return their focus to relative interest rates. This implies a 6% decline for the GBP/CAD rate over the coming months.

Quote https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/ca...p-cad-downside

Trade tensions appeared to resurface Thursday when President Donald Trump wrote on Twitter that Canada does run a trade deficit with the US, despite the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative saying America runs a $12.5 billion goods and services surplus with Canada"


Personally, I am hoping for BrExit talks Round2 to get the all clear next week and any positive news to trigger a top in the move up.

£1 = $1.825

glendem4

Data and Events to Watch for the Canadian Dollar

The main releases for the Canadian Dollar in the week ahead are on Friday, March 23, when retail sales and inflation data are out.

Inflation data in February is out at 12.30 GMT and is forecast to show a 0.4% rise compared to 0.7% in the previous month of January.

Compared to the same time in the previous year, or year-on-year as it is known, inflation is forecast to show a rise of 2.1% compared to 1.7% in February 2017.

Higher-than-expected inflation is generally seen as supportive of currencies as it indicates the probability that interest rates will rise, and higher interest rates attract more foreign capital inflows drawn by the promise of higher returns, which increases demand for the host currency.

Retail sales in January, meanwhile, is also out at 12.30 and is expected to rise by 1.1% compared to -0.8% in December. Core retail sales (ex-autos) is forecast to increase by 0.9% from -1.1% previously.

A higher result, or higher than the expected result would be expected to lend support to CAD as it indicates inflationary pressures.

Data and Events to Watch for the Pound

It is a busy week for UK data with the highlight being the EU summit on March 22-23 which will determine whether the EU and UK will enter a two-year 'transition period' after the official Brexit deadline has passed in March 2019.

A transition period keeps trade settings between the EU and UK more or less unchanged and helps businesses avoid the spectre of a cliff-edge Brexit in 2019 which would see the trade relationship default to World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules and tariffs.

The Pound's fate in the coming weeks thus depends very much on whether a transition agreement can be approved.

"If negotiations do indeed proceed in line with the scheduled timetable, this should help to reassure investors that a final deal is indeed possible which should have some upside for the Pound," says a note from global investment bank Investec.

Markets are quietly confident a deal will indeed been reached based on the hints that have been coming through in recent days, Robin Walker - who serves as Parliamentary Under Secretary of State at the Department for Exiting the European Union - said in a speech at the Institute of Directors last week that "we recognise how important it is to secure the deal on the implementation period as soon as possible. I want to stress that we are very close to a deal at this time.”

“Both the prospect and the timing of a transitional deal on Brexit remain highly uncertain. If such a deal does take place, however, it could be an important positive development for Sterling in the near-term by reducing 'cliff-edge' risks," says Lefteris Farmakis, an FX strategist at UBS Group.

However, the issue of the Irish border remains a thorny issue that has long appeared to be at an impasse, and it could yet come to deliver disappointment so nerves will remain elevated.

The other major event for the Pound is the Bank of England (BOE) rate meeting on Thursday at 12.00 GMT.
Although no-change in policy is expected analysts will be carefully combing the meeting minutes, released after the meeting, for signs of which way the monetary policy committee (MPC) appears to be swaying when it comes to future policy.

At the previous meeting, the BOE said they thought markets were underestimating how close the BOE was to increasing interest rates and analysts will be watching for whether this is still the case, according to Nordea Bank's chief analyst Martin Enlund et al.

Much depends on whether the BOE decides to keep the new phrase introduced in its last policy statement that, "monetary policy would need to be tightened somewhat earlier and by a somewhat greater degree over the forecast period."

If the phrase is kept in then it would indicate a greater urgency to raise interest rates than currently expected and result in upside for the Pound.

Higher interest rates are generally bullish for a currency as they increase inflows of foreign capital drawn by the promise of higher returns.

Another major release in the week ahead for the Pound is inflation data out on 9.30 on Tuesday, and this is forecast to show a slow-down in the rate of inflation to 2.8% year-on-year in February, i.e compared to a year ago, from 3.0% in the previous month.

On a monthly basis, it is forecast to show a 0.5% rise from a -0.5% in the previous month of January.

Normally high inflation stimulates currency appreciation because it suggests interest rates will rise, especially if it is caused by stronger growth, but because UK inflation has been caused predominantly by the weak Pound increasing the price of imports rather than growth, the relationship is a little more complex and the Pound may act unpredictably after the release.

Wednesday sees the release of UK labour market data which could also impact on the Pound - if labour data is positive, especially wage data, it is likely to strengthen Sterling.

Average Earnings are forecast to rise to 2.6% in January from 2.5% in December - both including and excluding bonuses - and if this occurs it could provide an impetus to the Pound.

The unemployment rate is forecast to stay unchanged at 4.4% and employment change to show that an extra 85k more jobs were added to the economy when the data is released at 9.30 on Wednesday morning.

Thursday sees the release of another potentially market-moving release in the form of Retail Sales, which is forecast to show a 1.5% rise yoy in February from 1.6% previously and 0.4% month-on-month from 0.1% in January

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/ca...e-week-ahead-5

£1 = $1.83