Brexit currency woes

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Oct 14th 2016, 3:16 am

#31

Stinkypup

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Re: Brexit currency woes

Quote:

Originally Posted by Davita

Currency valuations respect certainty...if uncertain situations develop it is always negative.

You are kind of pointing out the obvious. If Scotland were to leave, sad though people might be, I have a hunch that the pound would surge once Scotland left the union and had to acquire a new currency

Last edited by Stinkypup; Oct 14th 2016 at 3:47 am.

Oct 14th 2016, 3:34 am

#32

Davita

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Re: Brexit currency woes

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stinkypup

Your kind of pointing out the obvious. If Scotland were to leave, sad though people might be, I have a hunch that the pound would surge once Scotland left the union and had to acquire a new currency

That's a debate for the future...the tenet of this thread is here and now.
This news yesterday will create some more uncertainty but we'll have to wait and see if there is any repercussion on the exchange rate.
I was only posting in case anyone else, waiting to see the trend, might be informed in case they didn't get the news.

Oct 14th 2016, 11:28 am

#33

Souvy

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Re: Brexit currency woes

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pulaski

Wars, natural disasters, politics, changes in economic policy, you name it, it could have a dramatic effect on the price of commodities and/or the fortunes of individual countries, and therefore the strength of their currency.

An unexpected convergence of fracking technology and the Saudis §çrewing around with the price of oil led to a collapse in the price of oil, which has been unprecedented, and 26 months ago was unpredicted. Another 9/11 could stuff the US economy, a war in the middle east could slow the global economy AND drive up the price of oil. What about a US-Russia war, it could easily happen, or the Iranians closing the Strait of Hormuz?

The only certain thing is uncertainty, and those who predict the future exchange rates often end up eating humble pie, and lots of it. If you dig back through BE posts about two years ago someone asked about the USD-GBP rate, which had risen to, and then above $1.70, and the expectations is that it would rise further. I posted saying that the pound would likely rise further, but within a couple of weeks it had started to slide, and continued to do so and has done so more or less ever since. I was totally wrong.

A US-Russia war would make exchange rates pretty irrelevant!

Oct 17th 2016, 7:23 pm

#34

Gander

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Re: Brexit currency woes

Quote:

Originally Posted by hydrographer2004

For anyone converting £'s to CAD soon: https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/ca...midweek-update

Doesnt make good reading....

Rather stupidly we were planning to convert to CAD before the brexit vote but didnt get round to it in the end - well that decision looks to have cost us thousands of pounds...

We are going to Canada in Jan 2017 and want to transfer aprox £50-60k into CAD.

The idea is to ave a set up fund and then cash for a house deposit once we have settled in for a year or so.

Watching the pound tumble is literally making me want to cry...

Do we transfer everything asap or hold off and take a chance... argh!!

Whats everyone else's currency plan...??

Hi Hydrographer

Like you, we also thought we would wait as did not think Brexit would happen. Now we are committed to a house purchase and have to bring UK funds across, think we will potentially lose 33K in GBP.

We are considering getting a mortgage for the least term and the lowest interest rate to then reassess in hopefully a year or maybe bring funds across when it is at a bit better rate. We wondered whether the amount paid in interest might just lessen the damage. Anyone else on here who might think this would be a good idea please give your opinion, as like Hydrographer I really want to cry.

Oct 21st 2016, 6:36 am

#35

Davita

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Re: Brexit currency woes

Just saw some news that the EU have rejected a deal with Canada on exporting agricultural products there...something to do with protecting EU farmers.
I haven't studied but it could effectively further lower the C$ and make the GBP-CDN exchange more beneficial...maybe time to think of a swop....I'm in!

Oct 21st 2016, 1:35 pm

#36

Almost Canadian

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Re: Brexit currency woes

Quote:

Originally Posted by Davita

One small part of Belgium is unwilling to accept it. Time will tell if that is sufficient to scupper the whole deal.

Oct 22nd 2016, 7:01 pm

#37

thingstodo123

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Re: Brexit currency woes

It'll happen in time, the EU pretty much only has one decent free trade deal as it stands and that is with South Korea. If they can't make this work, they may as well just give up (especially on TTIP) so they will force it through one way or another.

They already take two to four times longer than a country making a trade deal with another country.

Oct 23rd 2016, 1:26 am

#38

Davita

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Re: Brexit currency woes

Quote:

Originally Posted by Almost Canadian

One small part of Belgium is unwilling to accept it. Time will tell if that is sufficient to scupper the whole deal.

Quote:

Originally Posted by thingstodo123

Doesn't that give credence to the CDN$ going UP in value?
Maybe better to buy now.

Oct 23rd 2016, 1:18 pm

#39

thingstodo123

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Re: Brexit currency woes

Quote:

Originally Posted by Davita

Doesn't that give credence to the CDN$ going UP in value?
Maybe better to buy now.

Not really my area. Anything on the EU, yes. Currency predictions, no. Sorry about that, not very helpful.

Oct 23rd 2016, 3:07 pm

#40

Davita

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Re: Brexit currency woes

I read that the EU has given Belgium until Monday night 24 Oct. EU time to ratify with Canada or everything is off.
Monday Deadline Set For Massive EU-Canada Trade Deal | Huffington Post

This deal suggests it will boost the Canadian economy by CDN12M per year...that surely will boost the CDN$. If the deal fails I doubt there is much downside.
Hope I'm right as I'll transfer from GBP-CDN as soon as Trudeau gets on a plane for Europe...

Oct 23rd 2016, 3:43 pm

#41

Pulaski

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Re: Brexit currency woes

Quote:

Originally Posted by Davita

.... This deal suggests it will boost the Canadian economy by CDN12M per year...that surely will boost the CDN$. If the deal fails I doubt there is much downside. .....

C$12million in the context of Canadian GDP is a drop in the bucket, in fact almost immeasurably small. There might be a psychological boost, but the effect on the currency would be small and likely short lived.

Oct 23rd 2016, 11:44 pm

#42

Davita

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Re: Brexit currency woes

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pulaski

(Sorry...my mistake previously saying C$12 Million...BnM are close on a keyboard....late at night)
If you read the link it says the Canadian economy would be boosted by CDN$12 Billion per year if the CETA deal is signed.

This is a significant boost to the agriculture sector which currently has a GDP of CDN$27 Billion.

edit: As I read more about this Canadian CETA deal with EU and Belgiums (Wallonia) intransigence it appears the UK should get really worried it can ensure any future deals with the single market. If 'supple' Canada cannot penetrate due to aforementioned what 'Hope in Hell' does UK have in the future...Brexit has just rejected 600 million potential consumers.

re from FT..."If European governments cannot win backing for a deal of relatively modest scale with prosperous, socially progressive Canada, there is little hope of their framing an effective response to the threat of dumping by China, or of making progress on a far more contentious trade and investment deal with the US."

Last edited by Davita; Oct 24th 2016 at 1:14 am.

Oct 24th 2016, 9:56 pm

#43

Davita

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Re: Brexit currency woes

After 7 years of negotiations between Canada and EU this deal was squashed because 3.5 million voters in a Municipality of Belgium managed to hold out against some 500 million in 27 other countries, in the EU blok. Where's the democracy?

In the future.....what chance will UK have trading with EU if Canada couldn't get it done.

This news may affect the GBP negatively whereas, if the deal had been successful, it may have affected the CDN positively...its a coin toss.

On the other hand maybe this isn't big news in the scale of things going on in this USA Presidential election phase.

Oct 24th 2016, 10:18 pm

#44

BristolUK

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Re: Brexit currency woes

Quote:

Originally Posted by Davita

In the future.....what chance will UK have trading with EU if Canada couldn't get it done.

If I was Europe I'd be saying:

Quote:

I don't want to talk to you no more, you empty-headed animal food trough wiper! I fart in your general direction! Your mother was a hamster and your father smelt of elderberries!

You don't frighten us, English pig dogs. Go and boil your bottoms, you sons of a silly person. I blow my nose at you, so-called "Arthur King," you and all your silly English K-nig-hts.