JamesM

We're talking about the exchange rate with the Canadian dollar. The Euro is irrelevant.

magnumpi

All this is great news for any future visits to the UK, it's a two headed monster guys, I'm liking what I see :@)

Davita

I'd check on relevant prices before counting your shekels....imported goods, like food, will be priced to reflect the buying power of the GBP. Gasoline for your hire car, unless stolen from the Scottish oilrigs after independence, will also reflect the GBP's currency transfer value.

OrangeMango

I still have some assets in the UK, and am affected as well. I'd say the trust of the markets in Brexit and Brexit being a success is not that high.

Freshwhyte

*Gasps* How did I not ever notice that.....lol

If the pound is set to fall against the Euro, an already weakened currency, why would it not fall against CAD ?

Granted I can't see it going THAT much lower, I think it would be foolish to think it will experience a rally of any sorts vs CAD. The only possibility is if the chatter about a CAD crash comes to fruition we will absolutely see a surge in GBP.

parthiban

If you don't desperately need the cash in Canada just yet then I'd hold fire for now, I think things will recover. I'm so glad I bit the bullet and transferred a large chunk of cash before the Brexit vote (now wishing I had transferred more!) but I'm fairly confident that once things calm down again the rate should improve.

Keep your eye on the markets though, the US elections are going to be the focus over the next month or so and if anything happens to weaken the dollar that could be good for the pound (and might impact CAD as well).

Davita

I don't see how anything that happens to the US$ will impact the relationship between the UK£ and the CDN$. If the US$ changes most of the world's currencies also shift...more or less equally.

The UK£ is a reflection of lack of confidence due to Brexit and the CDN$ is a reflection of commodity prices.
When either of those two change then the relationship between those currencies will change.
The most likely being some news about Brexit, or news from China about its industrial output, or the price of oil.

i.e. I have a portfolio of Mutual Funds managed from UK. Those funds are diversified globally, including emerging markets, but daily priced in the Financial Times in UK£. I recently took a look and the portfolio had ballooned since June.
I was pleasantly shocked.....but on converting the stock price (in UK£) to any other currency I may be spending (like CDN$, US$, IDRupiah, S$, MYRingitt) my profit was just marginal.
I'd need to return and live in UK to make use of that profit....

Pulaski

The interrelationships between currencies are massively complex and hard to predict but to say that the US election and a movement in the USD will affect the world's currencies "more or less equally" is really not true, for many reasons including one that you hint at - anything that boosts US demand for fuel, and/or reduces the ability of the US to produce fuel, such as more restrictions on fracking, or on coal mining, will boost the CAD.

The US is also both Canada's and the UK's biggest single trading partner, so anything that impacts the US economy will affect the GBP and CAD exchange rates differenty from most other countries - the GBP is tied to the USD as much as it is to the EUR.

OrangeMango

I think the issues with Brexit are only going to get worse, possibly 1.50 even. If you need the money right now, accept your losses and transfer. If you have time, try to wait for 1.75 or 1.80. It might be a very very long time, that you'll see 2.05 or 2.10 as an exchange rate of GBP towards CAD again.

A slow and steady rise in the price of oil ( if analysts are ever to be believed) might push the CAD up a bit as well.

Davita

I addressed that any change in commodity pricing could affect the CDN separate to the GBP but, what other 'reasons' could control that effect?
I'm like the OP and sitting on GBP waiting to exchange to CDN and wondering the timing.
I think the brexit effect may minimize the decline of the UK£, especially when closer to the deadline when some confidence may be expected..... but not sure about OPEC applying some restrictive practice which will benefit Canada. To throw in another 'reason' would hasten my actions.

Pulaski

Wars, natural disasters, politics, changes in economic policy, you name it, it could have a dramatic effect on the price of commodities and/or the fortunes of individual countries, and therefore the strength of their currency.

An unexpected convergence of fracking technology and the Saudis §çrewing around with the price of oil led to a collapse in the price of oil, which has been unprecedented, and 26 months ago was unpredicted. Another 9/11 could stuff the US economy, a war in the middle east could slow the global economy AND drive up the price of oil. What about a US-Russia war, it could easily happen, or the Iranians closing the Strait of Hormuz?

The only certain thing is uncertainty, and those who predict the future exchange rates often end up eating humble pie, and lots of it. If you dig back through BE posts about two years ago someone asked about the USD-GBP rate, which had risen to, and then above $1.70, and the expectations is that it would rise further. I posted saying that the pound would likely rise further, but within a couple of weeks it had started to slide, and continued to do so and has done so more or less ever since. I was totally wrong.

Davita

WoW! such pessimism...of course I could die on the operating table I'm about to climb onto on Tuesday for a hernia repair...then transferring my dosh will become moot...

Davita

Latest news from Scotland may have another negative effect on the UK£.

Scottish Government to publish plans for second independence referendum

Stinkypup

I would have to thought that that would have a positive effect... Why negative??

Davita

Currency valuations respect certainty...if uncertain situations develop it is always negative.