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Brexit currency woes

Brexit currency woes

Old Oct 7th 2016, 12:56 pm
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Default Brexit currency woes

For anyone converting £'s to CAD soon: https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/ca...midweek-update

Doesnt make good reading....

Rather stupidly we were planning to convert to CAD before the brexit vote but didnt get round to it in the end - well that decision looks to have cost us thousands of pounds...

We are going to Canada in Jan 2017 and want to transfer aprox £50-60k into CAD.

The idea is to ave a set up fund and then cash for a house deposit once we have settled in for a year or so.

Watching the pound tumble is literally making me want to cry...

Do we transfer everything asap or hold off and take a chance... argh!!

Whats everyone else's currency plan...??
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Old Oct 7th 2016, 12:59 pm
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Default Re: Brexit currency woes

I'm on the opposite end, I'm making a run to the bank today to buy as much GBP as I can afford. After that sharp crash last night its sure to rebound slightly before it crashes again in the spring.
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Old Oct 7th 2016, 1:40 pm
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Default Re: Brexit currency woes

Co-incidentally I'm like Hydro above.
I sold some shares and the check (UKP25,000) was sent to my residence in BC and was just returned to our bank in Channel Islands by our friend who occasionally drops into our place to check on things... as we're on holiday in Bali for the winter and not planning a return to Canada till spring.
In addition....I receive the UK OAP and it's relative value in C$ has lost 15% since Brexit referendum.

I watched yesterday's drop, and nearly cried, but recovered enough to drink a bottle of decent red wine....the tears have nearly dried.

Nevertheless...I believe in diversity and averaging...so I'll transfer some UKP to C$ and wait.

If it goes up a little... transfer some more...
If it depreciates....do the same....

edit: Another point I'd offer is that the value of the currency doesn't always reflect the undermining economy. Since the floating of currencies, after the Gold Standard was dropped, there are speculators....and they CAN control the currency market just like any others i.e. gold, silver, stocks, antiques, food and, my major peeve, houses/apartments.

Last edited by Davita; Oct 7th 2016 at 2:20 pm.
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Old Oct 7th 2016, 1:44 pm
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Default Re: Brexit currency woes

It will definitely recover somewhat before the inevitable Article 50 crash. But overall I think things are looking grim for GBP for the next few years.
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Old Oct 7th 2016, 2:21 pm
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Default Re: Brexit currency woes

I agree - part of me wishes I was in Canada already and planning on a uk holiday...

My current thinking is wait for the current crash yesterday to hopefully recover next week then transfer some over, then see what happens.

I reckon in March the £ is going to crash once article 50 is actually triggered and wont then recover for at least a couple of years. Given I want to buy a house in Canada I think its likely to be better to transfer cash now than watch in horror as it continues to decrease...
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Old Oct 7th 2016, 2:24 pm
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Default Re: Brexit currency woes

Originally Posted by Davita
Co-incidentally I'm like Hydro above.
I sold some shares and the check (UKP25,000) was sent to my residence in BC and was just returned to our bank in Channel Islands by our friend who occasionally drops into our place to check on things... as we're on holiday in Bali for the winter and not planning a return to Canada till spring.

In addition....I receive the UK OAP and it's relative value in C$ has lost 15% since Brexit referendum..

I watched yesterday's drop, and nearly cried, but recovered enough to drink a bottle of decent red wine....the tears have nearly dried.

Nevertheless...I believe in diversity and averaging...so I'll transfer some UKP to C$ and wait.

If it goes up a little... transfer some more...
If it depreciates....do the same....
back in the spring of 2010 when it was below 1.50, how much had your UK state pension dropped, then regained to 2015 levels - so now in Q4 2016 you are still ahead of the game from 2010

Is it possible the rate will go below 1.60 this year?

Cost averaging is one way

Last edited by not2old; Oct 7th 2016 at 2:28 pm.
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Old Oct 7th 2016, 2:41 pm
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Default Re: Brexit currency woes

Originally Posted by not2old
back in the spring of 2010 when it was below 1.50, how much had your UK state pension dropped, then regained to 2015 levels - so now in Q4 2016 you are still ahead of the game from 2010

Is it possible the rate will go below 1.60 this year?

Cost averaging is one way
Agreed, in 2010 we got it from both ends. Weak Pound and strong Cdn Dollar. Weak loonie absorbs some of the pain this time around.
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Old Oct 7th 2016, 2:47 pm
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Default Re: Brexit currency woes

Originally Posted by hydrographer2004
Watching the pound tumble is literally making me want to cry...

Do we transfer everything asap or hold off and take a chance... argh!!

Whats everyone else's currency plan...??
Heads someone else wins, Tails you lose.

That's probably the best approach.
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Old Oct 7th 2016, 3:12 pm
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Default Re: Brexit currency woes

Originally Posted by not2old
back in the spring of 2010 when it was below 1.50, how much had your UK state pension dropped, then regained to 2015 levels - so now in Q4 2016 you are still ahead of the game from 2010

Is it possible the rate will go below 1.60 this year?

Cost averaging is one way
Very good post....I took your challenge and used my XE app and found, overall, my UKP OAP has benefited from conversion to C$, on averaging, from 2010 till today.
It is this sudden adjustment that seems brutal, but there are good times and bad...so thanks for the insight.
Now.... if I could go back and convert my check for UKP25,000 at the rate on 12 Dec 2015 (mid-rate C$2.094).....I'd be a happy camper.

Edit: Most of the v.v between C$ and GBP, until Brexit, was due to the volatility of the C$ due to its commodity-based economy and nothing to do with the GBP.

Last edited by Davita; Oct 7th 2016 at 4:59 pm.
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Old Oct 7th 2016, 4:09 pm
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Default Re: Brexit currency woes

Originally Posted by hydrographer2004
For anyone converting £'s to CAD soon: https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/ca...midweek-update

Doesnt make good reading....

Rather stupidly we were planning to convert to CAD before the brexit vote but didnt get round to it in the end - well that decision looks to have cost us thousands of pounds...

We are going to Canada in Jan 2017 and want to transfer aprox £50-60k into CAD.

The idea is to ave a set up fund and then cash for a house deposit once we have settled in for a year or so.

Watching the pound tumble is literally making me want to cry...

Do we transfer everything asap or hold off and take a chance... argh!!

Whats everyone else's currency plan...??
I'm looking forward to buying cheap beer in the UK over Christmas.

If I were you I'd sit tight. And avoid moving your money for now.
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Old Oct 7th 2016, 4:23 pm
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Default Re: Brexit currency woes

Originally Posted by Freshwhyte
..... But overall I think things are looking grim for GBP for the next few years.
You have spent too much time reading editorials in the Grauniad. The banks and currency traders can see beyond the end of their nose and much of the "bad news" (your description, not mine) has already been "priced in" to the current exchange rates, such that I don't expect much further decline in the value of sterling, though there might be some occasional blips. In the range of possible future values of sterling there is much more upside than downside.

The idea that the world isn't going to want to do business with, and in the world's fifth largest economy is simply ill-informed nonsense, and businesses trading with and investing in the UK will need to buy sterling. At the current exchange rate Britain is very competitively priced for businesses to invest.
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Old Oct 7th 2016, 5:07 pm
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Default Re: Brexit currency woes

Originally Posted by Pulaski
You have spent too much time reading editorials in the Grauniad. The banks and currency traders can see beyond the end of their nose and much of the "bad news" (your description, not mine) has already been "priced in" to the current exchange rates, such that I don't expect much further decline in the value of sterling, though there might be some occasional blips. In the range of possible future values of sterling there is much more upside than downside.

The idea that the world isn't going to want to do business with, and in the world's fifth largest economy is simply ill-informed nonsense, and businesses trading with and investing in the UK will need to buy sterling. At the current exchange rate Britain is very competitively priced for businesses to invest.
It's ok saying that but no-one really knows what will happen. What we do know today is that some companies who depend on access to the single market are moving jobs away from the UK to elsewhere in the EU. This is the worst of both worlds in that (a) the pain of the Brexit vote can be felt right away and (b) the perceived benefits (e.g. immigration control) won't be realized until a number of years after the vote. There will be more fluctuation in the value of sterling as details of the very slow moving negotiations eventually emerge (whenever they actually get started that is).
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Old Oct 7th 2016, 5:24 pm
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Default Re: Brexit currency woes

Originally Posted by Pulaski
You have spent too much time reading editorials in the Grauniad. The banks and currency traders can see beyond the end of their nose and much of the "bad news" (your description, not mine) has already been "priced in" to the current exchange rates, such that I don't expect much further decline in the value of sterling, though there might be some occasional blips. In the range of possible future values of sterling there is much more upside than downside.

The idea that the world isn't going to want to do business with, and in the world's fifth largest economy is simply ill-informed nonsense, and businesses trading with and investing in the UK will need to buy sterling. At the current exchange rate Britain is very competitively priced for businesses to invest.
Futures are indicating that Sterling is on track for parity with the EURO by January 2017, this of course could change depending on the type of deals struck during Brexit. Its all up in the air, I have a friend that works for Forex and said that the pound and the euro are in for a hell of a ride, and that the USD will be thrown into the mix as well.
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Old Oct 7th 2016, 7:12 pm
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Default Re: Brexit currency woes

We are also planning the move for 2017 although probably aoxtober or November (ready to enjoy the cold...). We currently live in Germany and have been transferring money back to the UK over the past couple of years to save in GBP due to concerns over the Euro's vulnerability to the fragile southern European economies crashing.

I agree with Pulaski that most of the uncertainty is already priced in to the market rate and I can't see any significant drops on the horizon, even when A50 is triggered next year. I am hoping that by transferring money into GBP now at a great rate from the Euro, by the time I want it for a house deposit, probably in 2019, the Uncertainty of Brexit will be over and some confidence will be restored in the UK economy, boosting the GbP strength.

As a worst case, if something goes wrong and CIC find a reason not to accept our application, I have transferred cash to GBP at a great rate ready for moving back to the UK (small consolation). If you need the cash in the next 12 months I would be tempted to hedge and move a % of savings now, but if you don't need the cash until 2018 onwards I would hold back and wait it out a bit.
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Old Oct 7th 2016, 7:43 pm
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Default Re: Brexit currency woes

Originally Posted by Freshwhyte
Futures are indicating that Sterling is on track for parity with the EURO by January 2017,
Futures prices are a function of the spot price and the interest rate differential, and are at best a fairly mediocre way of predicting what the exchange rate, or the price of any other commodity, will be in three months.
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