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The world of automation

The world of automation

Old Oct 19th 2017, 4:37 am
  #976  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by GarryP
I was taking your figures - which yielded 550 parcels per day per hub.

If your big hub deals with 100k parcels a day, then that's 181 times bigger, or scaling the cost, 181*$50 = $9m for your oversized hub.
I was out a bit, currently, the posties are doing circa 12K parcels per day..... However a hub, which would include our contract drivers parcel hub at Thomastown would double that figure. There are currently 80 delivery hubs across Melbourne of varying sizes, Preston is the 3rd biggest. There are generally 4 or 5 drivers per post code.... more on busy days, which is when you get real delivery problems with fly by night drivers.

There is a hell of a lot of infrastructure needed, not sure how Amazon is going to cope if they end up going it alone after getting a foothold in the market via Aus Post, to be honest.

Drivers wages alone is going to be a massive issue. Currently the Aus Post Contractors get 1.20 per parcel, that includes fridge size items or 4 tyres bundled together. Whereas the Aus Post hub drivers get at least 70K per annum because of shift penalties, weekend work and OT. Some earn 90K

The contractors are bound to start chucking parcels after a while in the job, that's because of the low wage and is unstoppable IMO as the drivers will attempt to make up time at the first delay.... IE: a Kid answering the door and having to wait for mum to come out of the toilet/shower etc....... Hence Amazon will have to pay for reliable do as they are told drivers which will cost them at least 70K per annum per driver, more like 80K plus 14.5 per super. There is no way a driver can average more than 25 deliveries per hour. You can work out the wages for contractors from those figures. They are now limited to 180 parcels per day, in order to try and stop them chucking parcels.

If they go with contract drivers they will end up with a bad reputation.

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Old Oct 19th 2017, 5:11 am
  #977  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by ozzieeagle
I was out a bit, currently, the posties are doing circa 12K parcels per day..... However a hub, which would include our contract drivers parcel hub at Thomastown would double that figure. There are currently 80 delivery hubs across Melbourne of varying sizes, Preston is the 3rd biggest. There are generally 4 or 5 drivers per post code.... more on busy days, which is when you get real delivery problems with fly by night drivers.

There is a hell of a lot of infrastructure needed, not sure how Amazon is going to cope if they end up going it alone after getting a foothold in the market via Aus Post, to be honest.

Drivers wages alone is going to be a massive issue. Currently the Aus Post Contractors get 1.20 per parcel, that includes fridge size items or 4 tyres bundled together. Whereas the Aus Post hub drivers get at least 70K per annum because of shift penalties, weekend work and OT. Some earn 90K

The contractors are bound to start chucking parcels after a while in the job, that's because of the low wage and is unstoppable IMO as the drivers will attempt to make up time at the first delay.... IE: a Kid answering the door and having to wait for mum to come out of the toilet/shower etc....... Hence Amazon will have to pay for reliable do as they are told drivers which will cost them at least 70K per annum per driver, more like 80K plus 14.5 per super. There is no way a driver can average more than 25 deliveries per hour. You can work out the wages for contractors from those figures. They are now limited to 180 parcels per day, in order to try and stop them chucking parcels.

If they go with contract drivers they will end up with a bad reputation.
You seem to have switched from talking about delivery drones (and the likely autonomous trucks going between hubs) and Amazon replacing auspost with conventional vans.

And I'm sure your issues on drivers are correct - which is why it's best to do away with them !

However, in the meantime, Amazon have gone a long way to replacing bog standard couriers/deliverers with their own drivers/vans in other countries - so no reason they can't do it here if auspost don't deliver ...
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Old Oct 22nd 2017, 2:31 am
  #978  
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Default Re: The world of automation

This article is quite interesting. There is probably some parallels in other cities. The shift away from manufacturing into finance and technology also a key driver to where the money is.

https://www.domain.com.au/news/what-sydney-prices-looked-like-40-years-ago-when-bankstown-was-more-expensive-than-leichhardt-20171022-gz1rpb/
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Old Oct 22nd 2017, 5:15 am
  #979  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Beoz
This article is quite interesting. /
Only bit that gets you thinking is :
where the closer the suburb is to the CBD the more expensive house prices tend to be.
In other words physical proximity IS currently values.

However, if you have autonomous vehicles, drone deliveries, distributed power, and decent networking (eg not FTTN) then that imperative doesn't hold anything like it's current sway. Certainly not when it costs millions of dollars.

Somewhere in there, for those lucky enough to still have jobs, there is a tipping point. In the same way that in the 50s there was a flight from the centre, there will likely be again. I'm actually wondering if there will be a disruption in living as well - similar to how computing went from the desktop to the phone/laptop. Make everything that is 'you' mobile, maybe with your personal 'convoy' rather than monolithic RV; snowbirds, but on another scale; going back to a nomadic life.
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Old Oct 22nd 2017, 7:11 am
  #980  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by GarryP
Only bit that gets you thinking is :
In other words physical proximity IS currently values.

However, if you have autonomous vehicles, drone deliveries, distributed power, and decent networking (eg not FTTN) then that imperative doesn't hold anything like it's current sway. Certainly not when it costs millions of dollars.

Somewhere in there, for those lucky enough to still have jobs, there is a tipping point. In the same way that in the 50s there was a flight from the centre, there will likely be again. I'm actually wondering if there will be a disruption in living as well - similar to how computing went from the desktop to the phone/laptop. Make everything that is 'you' mobile, maybe with your personal 'convoy' rather than monolithic RV; snowbirds, but on another scale; going back to a nomadic life.
Well the message in that article is all about time. Unless autonomous vehicles and drones are going to help people live long distances from where they want to be and travel to those places quicker, then its not really going to help your case in Werribee ... and your property value.

FTTN maybe. Depends on the size of the data you are crunching. Currently, 98% of data required by business works sufficiently on the existing network speeds. Even large datasets are serviced by applications mirroring and delta file transferring data over the current networks. When demand increases over time, you will get your FTTN.

The real driver he is two fold. Where are the jobs, and where is the public transport? (And in Sydney's case, where are the beaches).

Considering manufacturing is dead and the bulk of today's best paid city jobs are services in the city, that's where you will see growth. No amount of autonomous vehicles will help that. Speeds will still be limited, there will be traffic and there's no where to park with land becoming more and more of a premium.

Your only hope is the creation of medium speed rail from Werribbee to the CBD in 20 minutes. But given Australia's aversion to medium speed rail, the chances of decent property growth in Werribee are slim.
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Old Oct 22nd 2017, 7:40 am
  #981  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Beoz
Your only hope is the creation of medium speed rail from Werribbee to the CBD in 20 minutes. But given Australia's aversion to medium speed rail, the chances of decent property growth in Werribee are slim.
Where I am is already 20 mins to the CBD ....

And I think you missed the point of virtually everything I said.
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Old Oct 22nd 2017, 8:20 am
  #982  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by GarryP
Where I am is already 20 mins to the CBD ....

And I think you missed the point of virtually everything I said.
Well then you aren't in Werribee.

I got your point, again and sadly, it was wrong. You neglected time which is the point.

The only way to fly from the centre is with speed. Teleportation could help Werribbe.
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Old Oct 22nd 2017, 10:06 am
  #983  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Beoz
Well then you aren't in Werribee.
Strange that, as I never said I was.

Originally Posted by Beoz
I got your point, again and sadly, it was wrong. You neglected time which is the point.
Nope, the importance of time, it's relationship to distance and lifestyle CHANGING was the point.
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Old Oct 22nd 2017, 11:00 am
  #984  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by GarryP
Strange that, as I never said I was.

Nope, the importance of time, it's relationship to distance and lifestyle CHANGING was the point.
Hmmm. I thought you were based down that way. Either way, autonomous vehicles and drones are unlikely to make Werribee a more desirable place. A 20-30 minute commute on the other hand would give it a fighting chance and that's not a drone or autonomous car solution. That's a rail solution. Or a George Jetson flying bus solution. Unless of course Werribee becomes a jobs hub, like Melbourne's CBD.

What we do know is jobs growth of the future is likely to see continued growth in engineering, education, creativity, technology and finance. Is this growth going to be CBD based or not? Well considering of current transportation options point toward the CBD, its unlikely to shift.

And owning a massive house on the cheap, is not most peoples idea of lifestyle. Its cheap for a reason.

Last edited by Beoz; Oct 22nd 2017 at 11:02 am.
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Old Oct 22nd 2017, 9:01 pm
  #985  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Beoz
Unless of course Werribee becomes a jobs hub, like Melbourne's CBD.

What we do know is jobs growth of the future is likely to see continued growth in engineering, education, creativity, technology and finance. Is this growth going to be CBD based or not? Well considering of current transportation options point toward the CBD, its unlikely to shift.
Funny you should mention that .... almost prescient in a wrong sort of way ....

Category: | Herald Sun
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Old Oct 22nd 2017, 10:03 pm
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by GarryP
Funny you should mention that .... almost prescient in a wrong sort of way ....

Category: | Herald Sun
There you go. No mention of transport yet. Without means of people getting there quickly it could become a white elephant.

Meanwhile, up in Sydney.

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/lucy-turnbull-unveils-plan-for-three-sydneys-20171022-gz5un4.html
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Old Oct 22nd 2017, 10:36 pm
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Beoz
There you go. No mention of transport yet. Without means of people getting there quickly it could become a white elephant.

Meanwhile, up in Sydney.

Lucy Turnbull unveils plan for three Sydneys
So hang on. We have multiple examples of governance looking towards a distributed rather than centralised model - which goes totally against your point of journey times to the CBD and property prices being predicated on that into the future - and you are still saying that without fast transport to the centre it's still a white elephant?

That makes no sense.

I'm not saying that there shouldn't be fast transport (BTW just checked and Werribee is 35mins to the CBD which could easily come down with better scheduling), but developments in automation and distribution are acting to reduce that CBD bias into the future, meaning the property values won't likely sustain.

In particular, from a job perspective, if you can cut the geographic bias and add in autonomous vehicles, then there is no reason you couldn't be working in the car in the commute, or working from home, and using high bandwidth comms to connect.

I don't think clustering will go away, but I do think city based overclustering will lose it's lustre.
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Old Oct 22nd 2017, 11:10 pm
  #988  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by GarryP
So hang on. We have multiple examples of governance looking towards a distributed rather than centralised model - which goes totally against your point of journey times to the CBD and property prices being predicated on that into the future - and you are still saying that without fast transport to the centre it's still a white elephant?

That makes no sense.
Post 980 - The wealthy will want to be within an easy commute of where the best paying jobs are. The wealthy will drive the best prices.

Cities evolve, history has shown us that areas that were popular with the wealthy and the poor can change.

But not always. Those London city job are close to Leyton. The area has also benefited from the Olympics. Has Leyton grown. Yes. Has it caught up and gone beyond Chelsea? No.

Development aids in gentrification but its a long road for the wealthy to change their tune as to where they want to live.

Sydney has the harbour and the beaches. The wealthy want to live near them. Would the wealthy commute from Manly to Parramatta with the current infrastructure? Only if the pay cheque substitute the inconvenience. They aren't going to live in Parramatta either and commute to the beach.

Originally Posted by GarryP
I'm not saying that there shouldn't be fast transport (BTW just checked and Werribee is 35mins to the CBD which could easily come down with better scheduling), but developments in automation and distribution are acting to reduce that CBD bias into the future, meaning the property values won't likely sustain.


Its 38 mins, which would be an hour at best with commuting to and from the station.


Originally Posted by GarryP

But how are developments in automation going to effect property values? You talked about autonomous cars and drones. How does this help a commute?

In particular, from a job perspective, if you can cut the geographic bias and add in autonomous vehicles, then there is no reason you couldn't be working in the car in the commute, or working from home, and using high bandwidth comms to connect.

I don't think clustering will go away, but I do think city based overclustering will lose it's lustre.
Why work in an autonomous car for 3 hours a day when you can work in an autonomous car for an hour? I can't see the ability to work in a car, a driver for people to live further away from their place of work, to change peoples attitudes on where they want to live. Explain how this is appealing? Remember - distance and lifestyle CHANGING. Sitting in the back of an autonomous vehicle for 3 hours a day is hardly lifestyle CHANGING.

We already have many working from home. Increasing internet speeds will have no effect here as most already have the bandwidth they require. We already have businesses noticing the negative effect of isolated working.

But I think we both agree, clustering will exist, cities will have many clusters rather than a single cluster.

Now what that requires is better access. Public transport in Melbourne and Sydney at the very least is designed to transport people into one cluster. Lots of work and lots of years needed to aid the idea of many clusters.

Last edited by Beoz; Oct 22nd 2017 at 11:13 pm.
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Old Oct 23rd 2017, 12:58 am
  #989  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Beoz
Post 980 - The wealthy will want to be within an easy commute of where the best paying jobs are. The wealthy will drive the best prices.
Again.

Distance<>Time<>Hassle<>Cost are not static items and particularly with autonomous vehicles the hassle factor goes down, as can the time if you are sensible with distribution, meaning your postulated invariant of CBD bias can change, significantly.

Originally Posted by Beoz
But not always. Those London city job are close to Leyton. The area has also benefited from the Olympics. Has Leyton grown. Yes. Has it caught up and gone beyond Chelsea? No.
Does anyone in Chelsea work? Thought they were all russian mobsters.

Originally Posted by Beoz
Sydney has the harbour and the beaches. The wealthy want to live near them. Would the wealthy commute from Manly to Parramatta with the current infrastructure?
Again, we aren't talking about the current infrastructure, we are talking about change.

Originally Posted by Beoz
Its 38 mins, which would be an hour at best with commuting to and from the station.
35 mins to Southern Cross, which is more sensible. And that stops at a number of intermediate places (like South Ken), which if you removed them could speed the route. As I say, you mightn't get down down to 20 mins, but you can get it down to under 30 via better scheduling. In other words, not too bad.

However, autonomous vehicles, distribution, etc. can change/threaten the public transport model pretty significantly.

Originally Posted by Beoz
I can't see the ability to work in a car, a driver for people to live further away from their place of work, to change peoples attitudes on where they want to live. Explain how this is appealing?
The whole point is it changes the above equation. As does autonomous vehicles not needing parking spaces. It's very unlikely that the various behaviours and impact of automation won't change property price drivers, or what is preferred.

Originally Posted by Beoz
But I think we both agree, clustering will exist, cities will have many clusters rather than a single cluster.
I'm actually wondering if this will be a dynamic, maybe virtual, thing. City based clustering is already limited when so many things are now global. It's an unstable scenario. If you are an IT startuo you either go to silicon valley for the networking, or you remove the implications of distance, in which case is there much point going to the local CBD?

Say, for instance, that MagicLeap succeeded and you had workable AR glasses that were practical - making telepresence viable. The implications could be dramatic for lifestyles and structures. Furthermore, if you accept the reality of automation decimating the workforce (which most do) then you can see that automation as an amplification of the reach and capability of those that remain - again removing the benefit of close physical distances. In fact positioning yourself as flexible on an international basis has tax and other advantages (just look at Branson running Virgin from his personal desert island).

Upshot is almost certainly tomorrow looks different from today.
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Old Oct 23rd 2017, 3:07 am
  #990  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by GarryP
Again.

Distance<>Time<>Hassle<>Cost are not static items and particularly with autonomous vehicles the hassle factor goes down, as can the time if you are sensible with distribution, meaning your postulated invariant of CBD bias can change, significantly.

Does anyone in Chelsea work? Thought they were all russian mobsters.

Again, we aren't talking about the current infrastructure, we are talking about change.

35 mins to Southern Cross, which is more sensible. And that stops at a number of intermediate places (like South Ken), which if you removed them could speed the route. As I say, you mightn't get down down to 20 mins, but you can get it down to under 30 via better scheduling. In other words, not too bad.
Change. Hhmmmm. That's a dirty word for Australian rail. Its all doable, no doubt, but its needs to be built, medium speed that is and new rail lines that go to other places. Not just the CBD.

Originally Posted by GarryP
However, autonomous vehicles, distribution, etc. can change/threaten the public transport model pretty significantly.

The whole point is it changes the above equation. As does autonomous vehicles not needing parking spaces. It's very unlikely that the various behaviours and impact of automation won't change property price drivers, or what is preferred.
Parking yes. That means 4 trips rather than 2 if you assume autonomous cars will park in areas where property isn't a premium. More cars, more traffic, more congestion, further pointing to living near where your life functions.

Originally Posted by GarryP
I'm actually wondering if this will be a dynamic, maybe virtual, thing. City based clustering is already limited when so many things are now global. It's an unstable scenario. If you are an IT startuo you either go to silicon valley for the networking, or you remove the implications of distance, in which case is there much point going to the local CBD?

Say, for instance, that MagicLeap succeeded and you had workable AR glasses that were practical - making telepresence viable.
Well we already have telepresence in the form of Skype and Webex. I am a heavy user of telepresence and the one thing it does for me is generate work in places further a field. Which means I have to visit the places because you need the live handshake, you need to look the business in the eye. Its all about collaboration. Its all about relationships.

Originally Posted by GarryP
The implications could be dramatic for lifestyles and structures. Furthermore, if you accept the reality of automation decimating the workforce (which most do) then you can see that automation as an amplification of the reach and capability of those that remain - again removing the benefit of close physical distances. In fact positioning yourself as flexible on an international basis has tax and other advantages (just look at Branson running Virgin from his personal desert island).

Upshot is almost certainly tomorrow looks different from today.
Well luckily automation increases jobs because it increases $$$$$$.

These two still go unanswered.

1. Automation requires money to develop. No money no development. How does this work if no one has jobs?

2. We have seen in history that automation increases jobs. What changes from here? ("Its different this time round" does really cut the mustard)
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