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Old Aug 1st 2016, 7:54 am   #61
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Default Re: The world of automation

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Everything changes after a while. The point I'm trying to make here is I think mass delivery by drones is a falsehood.

Best way I can give an example is for people to look at the check out queues at their local supermarket. Then see how many people check out with a very small amount of items. Imagine trying to deliver those by drone. The thing is the vast majority of parcels are small and individual items..... I just can't see drones making an impact on this market, which is by far the biggest part of the delivery market. Unless you've got a giant drone hovering with 300 items making deliveries on a ad hoc basis.

Drones are for special orders only IMO.

Unless someone can think of a system where this will work. I guess the automonous van with 2 or 3 drones in each van flying a short distance could be the go. How far away is that system though..... and will they use that system for those small quantity supermarket items as well. As far as I'm concerned it's exactly the same issue.....If anything the parcel market is more difficult as the end point.

Mass Drone deliveries are dead in the water as far as I'm concerned.... they'll take up less than 10 pct of the deliveries I reckon. We've talked and talked and talked this subject at work and the consensus is the future wishers are totally underestimating the indivdual small item volumes.

Solve the 3 item supermarket purchase by automated delivery, which will be a far easier nut to crack than small parcel delivery.... and your on the way to solving the parcel issue. I cant see it myself.
The thing with technology, just because there are some challenges today, doesn't mean they can't be overcome tomorrow. Mass drone delivery dead in the water? Really. I would never say never on that one.

Drones are a long way off for delivery, I agree. Rural areas would be the best starting point. We've really yet to start so not really something you could say is dead in the water.
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Old Aug 1st 2016, 9:00 am   #62
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Default Re: The world of automation

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Originally Posted by ozzieeagle View Post
Everything changes after a while. The point I'm trying to make here is I think mass delivery by drones is a falsehood.

Best way I can give an example is for people to look at the check out queues at their local supermarket. Then see how many people check out with a very small amount of items. Imagine trying to deliver those by drone. The thing is the vast majority of parcels are small and individual items..... I just can't see drones making an impact on this market, which is by far the biggest part of the delivery market. Unless you've got a giant drone hovering with 300 items making deliveries on a ad hoc basis.

Drones are for special orders only IMO.
Disagree. I think the time for which parcel and letter delivery by bloke on a bike or man in a van are coming to an end.

It's just a question of the finances. Even at minimum wage, you are talking $35k per year, plus the vehicle, plus fuel, plus HR costs, plus super, etc. - putting it over $50k easily. At even the most frantic parcel delivery rate, that makes it at least 50c per delivery, probably closer to $1-2 a shot.

In contrast you can fly a drone for less than $5k per year, and even at a slower delivery rate, the fact that there are longer hours, 7 days a week, means you can hit less than 50c per delivery, with all the other advantages too.

Then, of course, you have the reality that as business moves away from the likes of Auspost, the economies of scale will go away; and up will go the costs.

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Originally Posted by ozzieeagle View Post
Unless someone can think of a system where this will work. I guess the automonous van with 2 or 3 drones in each van flying a short distance could be the go. How far away is that system though..... and will they use that system for those small quantity supermarket items as well. As far as I'm concerned it's exactly the same issue.....If anything the parcel market is more difficult as the end point.
See above with the idea of perching on lamposts etc. - there are lots of options.

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Mass Drone deliveries are dead in the water as far as I'm concerned.... they'll take up less than 10 pct of the deliveries I reckon. We've talked and talked and talked this subject at work and the consensus is the future wishers are totally underestimating the indivdual small item volumes.

Solve the 3 item supermarket purchase by automated delivery, which will be a far easier nut to crack than small parcel delivery.... and your on the way to solving the parcel issue. I cant see it myself.
It's not just delivery services that I can see going the way of the dodo - it's also many retail type offerings.

As for 'its far far future' - well they just got the go ahead for practical testing in the UK. My guess is you will be seeing significant numbers by 2020, and probably ubiquitous by 2025.
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Old Aug 1st 2016, 12:56 pm   #63
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Default Re: The world of automation

If I offered a free tax return service that guaranteed maximum return and only had advertising on my website as income, do you think I'd sign up many clients? My process would be entirely automated and proof of receipt or evidence would be accepted based on the customers acceptance that if they provide false info, they would be liable. Therefore, I could just have a process that claims rebates or declares incomes based on some very simple mouse clicks by the customer and effectively does the job of most of these bullshit tax companies such as H&R Block. Clients would also get to claim on the expense the following tax year. I believe that's going to happen soon. Making tax accountants redundant doesn't keep me awake at night. They can learn some software development and get with the times.
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Old Aug 1st 2016, 1:03 pm   #64
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Default Re: The world of automation

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If I offered a free tax return service that guaranteed maximum return and only had advertising on my website as income, do you think I'd sign up many clients? My process would be entirely automated and proof of receipt or evidence would be accepted based on the customers acceptance that if they provide false info, they would be liable. Therefore, I could just have a process that claims rebates or declares incomes based on some very simple mouse clicks by the customer and effectively does the job of most of these bullshit tax companies such as H&R Block. Clients would also get to claim on the expense the following tax year. I believe that's going to happen soon. Making tax accountants redundant doesn't keep me awake at night. They can learn some software development and get with the times.
Already been done

https://www.ato.gov.au/Individuals/L.../Lodge-online/

https://www.etax.com.au/
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Old Aug 1st 2016, 1:12 pm   #65
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Default Re: The world of automation

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As for 'its far far future' - well they just got the go ahead for practical testing in the UK. My guess is you will be seeing significant numbers by 2020, and probably ubiquitous by 2025.
Disagree

We may see some deployment by 2020 but it will take many more years until they become commonplace. High density cities are not ready and some will crash and hurt or kill people (every new moving technology does somewhere, sometime) - pushing back the timeframe
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Old Aug 1st 2016, 1:18 pm   #66
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Default Re: The world of automation

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Well no, not the same thing at all.
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Old Aug 1st 2016, 2:04 pm   #67
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Default Re: The world of automation

People are underestimating the quantities when it comes to drone delivery, that's it in a nutshell.

We now have 5 vans per postcode delivering for Aus Post in inner Melbourne. When I was doing it pre 2001 it was 1 van. Times that by all the other courier companies. Each van carries around 230 parcels..... These vans are probably only moving along 7 houses at a time before they stop to deliver again.



That's a shed load of drones..... that's not counting the Postie delivered parcels.... which would have to be at least 2,000 per post code..... and that's today figures.... that will double in 5 years time.

It's a safety issue more than anything else that I'm seeing.
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Old Aug 1st 2016, 2:52 pm   #68
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Default Re: The world of automation

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Originally Posted by ozzieeagle View Post
People are underestimating the quantities when it comes to drone delivery, that's it in a nutshell.

We now have 5 vans per postcode delivering for Aus Post in inner Melbourne. When I was doing it pre 2001 it was 1 van. Times that by all the other courier companies. Each van carries around 230 parcels..... These vans are probably only moving along 7 houses at a time before they stop to deliver again.



That's a shed load of drones..... that's not counting the Postie delivered parcels.... which would have to be at least 2,000 per post code..... and that's today figures.... that will double in 5 years time.

It's a safety issue more than anything else that I'm seeing.
And what happens with drone delivery when it is pissing down or in high wind?
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Old Aug 1st 2016, 5:53 pm   #69
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Default Re: The world of automation

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If you insist.

Sooner the ATO will realise that submitting at tax return for most people is a pointless, costly and unneeded exercise anyway.
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Old Aug 1st 2016, 5:55 pm   #70
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Default Re: The world of automation

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We now have 5 vans per postcode delivering for Aus Post in inner Melbourne. When I was doing it pre 2001 it was 1 van.
And the world of automation increases jobs again .... even where you least expect it.
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Old Aug 2nd 2016, 12:15 am   #71
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Default Re: The world of automation

Quote:
Originally Posted by ozzieeagle View Post
People are underestimating the quantities when it comes to drone delivery, that's it in a nutshell.

We now have 5 vans per postcode delivering for Aus Post in inner Melbourne. When I was doing it pre 2001 it was 1 van. Times that by all the other courier companies. Each van carries around 230 parcels..... These vans are probably only moving along 7 houses at a time before they stop to deliver again.
Not sure of that. If you say there are 60k houses in a postcode, then 1000 parcels would mean 1 in 60 houses get a delivery on average each day.

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That's a shed load of drones..... that's not counting the Postie delivered parcels.... which would have to be at least 2,000 per post code..... and that's today figures.... that will double in 5 years time.

It's a safety issue more than anything else that I'm seeing.
OK, for the hell of it, let's do those numbers. We'll also assume that there's only one parcel per flight (although they are already talking about more).

That's ~3000 parcels per post code. Assuming 12 hour days (could be longer obviously), that's 250 per hour, or 4 per minute, 15 seconds between flights to clear the warehouse. At 30 mins trip time, that's 125 drones, costing ~$500k.

Throw in a tranche of double deliveries (most of those parcels are obviously small if the postie is carrying them) and we are down to 83 drones at ~$333k and roughly one every 22 seconds.

So the cost of the drones is going to be less than the cost of the warehouse, and the most congested spot (around the warehouse) is going to be relatively easy to manage with say 4 launch spots (the Nimitz can launch a real aircraft every 20 seconds).
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Old Aug 2nd 2016, 3:47 am   #72
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Default Re: The world of automation

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Not sure of that. If you say there are 60k houses in a postcode, then 1000 parcels would mean 1 in 60 houses get a delivery on average each day.


OK, for the hell of it, let's do those numbers. We'll also assume that there's only one parcel per flight (although they are already talking about more).

That's ~3000 parcels per post code. Assuming 12 hour days (could be longer obviously), that's 250 per hour, or 4 per minute, 15 seconds between flights to clear the warehouse. At 30 mins trip time, that's 125 drones, costing ~$500k.

Throw in a tranche of double deliveries (most of those parcels are obviously small if the postie is carrying them) and we are down to 83 drones at ~$333k and roughly one every 22 seconds.

So the cost of the drones is going to be less than the cost of the warehouse, and the most congested spot (around the warehouse) is going to be relatively easy to manage with say 4 launch spots (the Nimitz can launch a real aircraft every 20 seconds).
Thomastown from where the parcels come now in the North services at least 30 postcodes.... so your figures need to be at least 90,000 parcels per day.... more like 120,000.

Plus the flight time from say Thomastown to Research in the east and Ascot Vale in the South West would be more than 30 mins.

I've not met one person, even the most technology friendly and pro advancement person that actually works in the industry that thinks mass delivery by drone is possible.

There are 321 postcodes in Melbourne. There are 3 current parcel centers.
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Old Aug 2nd 2016, 5:07 am   #73
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Default Re: The world of automation

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Thomastown from where the parcels come now in the North services at least 30 postcodes.... so your figures need to be at least 90,000 parcels per day.... more like 120,000.

Plus the flight time from say Thomastown to Research in the east and Ascot Vale in the South West would be more than 30 mins.

I've not met one person, even the most technology friendly and pro advancement person that actually works in the industry that thinks mass delivery by drone is possible.

There are 321 postcodes in Melbourne. There are 3 current parcel centers.
But it's very unlikely that anyone sanely taking on the task would have only 3 parcel centres. It would be much more spread out than that.

Not sure exactly how many postal addresses in Melbourne, but let's say 2 million homes. At 60k houses a base, that's 33 bases, spread across the area.

Can't find the total number of parcels into Melbourne per day, but let's say it was 60k, excluding the bulk parcel set that would go to businesses (probably by road). That fits in with the above number on drones etc. Something like 3000 drones in total.
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Old Aug 2nd 2016, 6:55 am   #74
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Default Re: The world of automation

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But it's very unlikely that anyone sanely taking on the task would have only 3 parcel centres. It would be much more spread out than that.

Not sure exactly how many postal addresses in Melbourne, but let's say 2 million homes. At 60k houses a base, that's 33 bases, spread across the area.

Can't find the total number of parcels into Melbourne per day, but let's say it was 60k, excluding the bulk parcel set that would go to businesses (probably by road). That fits in with the above number on drones etc. Something like 3000 drones in total.
2000 of these postie delivered per day "currently" per inner urban postcode.... Just thought I'd give you an exact picture of what I'm talking about. That's 1 bag with circa 100 small packages. We currently get about 20 bags per suburb per night..... 5 years ago we were lucky to get 8 bags per night. These are not the Van delivered parcel center ones. We sort those into somewhere between 15-27 rounds per post code.... All from memory by individual street sometimes broken down into 5 postal round per main long streets. We do 3 post codes each per night. That's without the letters and large letters of course..... which are sorted by us in different frames.


Going to have to spend a hell of a lot of money on machinery in 33 locations that can handle that stuff. I dont think there is a machine that can effectively sort these widely varied small items yet.
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Old Aug 2nd 2016, 11:28 am   #75
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Default Re: The world of automation

I don't see drone delivery being very popular anytime soon. Where are the darn things going to land? It's not like they'll set themselves down on your doorstep and leave a heavy package. Unsigned at that.

What about flight routes, etc.? Kids sabotaging the things all the time? Instead of playing Pokemon Go they'll go back to old school toys and try to down a drone...

Ultimately the biggest hit technology has done to traditional delivery is the fact that people don't write letters any more. They send emails. Even bills or banking statements come electronically nowadays. Same with books, though they are still holding up, with Kindle bound to gradually grow in terms of market share vs. pulp. As for music, movies or video games, haven't we already broken well past the 50% threshold of such "items" being delivered in electronic form vs physical media?

What's keeping delivery services going nowadays is the change in distribution methods, where people no longer head to local stores (or superstores) for all their clothing or electronic needs. In a way you could look at it differently: we have fewer but larger superstores (some in a global sense even), but those are far away, so we are seeing a return to... traditional mail-order shopping - just without the need to place an order via a postal form and with faster and cheaper shipping.
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