The world of automation
Aug 1st 2016, 6:54 am
#61
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Re: The world of automation
Everything changes after a while. The point I'm trying to make here is I think mass delivery by drones is a falsehood.
Best way I can give an example is for people to look at the check out queues at their local supermarket. Then see how many people check out with a very small amount of items. Imagine trying to deliver those by drone. The thing is the vast majority of parcels are small and individual items..... I just can't see drones making an impact on this market, which is by far the biggest part of the delivery market. Unless you've got a giant drone hovering with 300 items making deliveries on a ad hoc basis.
Drones are for special orders only IMO.
Unless someone can think of a system where this will work. I guess the automonous van with 2 or 3 drones in each van flying a short distance could be the go. How far away is that system though..... and will they use that system for those small quantity supermarket items as well. As far as I'm concerned it's exactly the same issue.....If anything the parcel market is more difficult as the end point.
Mass Drone deliveries are dead in the water as far as I'm concerned.... they'll take up less than 10 pct of the deliveries I reckon. We've talked and talked and talked this subject at work and the consensus is the future wishers are totally underestimating the indivdual small item volumes.
Solve the 3 item supermarket purchase by automated delivery, which will be a far easier nut to crack than small parcel delivery.... and your on the way to solving the parcel issue. I cant see it myself.
Best way I can give an example is for people to look at the check out queues at their local supermarket. Then see how many people check out with a very small amount of items. Imagine trying to deliver those by drone. The thing is the vast majority of parcels are small and individual items..... I just can't see drones making an impact on this market, which is by far the biggest part of the delivery market. Unless you've got a giant drone hovering with 300 items making deliveries on a ad hoc basis.
Drones are for special orders only IMO.
Unless someone can think of a system where this will work. I guess the automonous van with 2 or 3 drones in each van flying a short distance could be the go. How far away is that system though..... and will they use that system for those small quantity supermarket items as well. As far as I'm concerned it's exactly the same issue.....If anything the parcel market is more difficult as the end point.
Mass Drone deliveries are dead in the water as far as I'm concerned.... they'll take up less than 10 pct of the deliveries I reckon. We've talked and talked and talked this subject at work and the consensus is the future wishers are totally underestimating the indivdual small item volumes.
Solve the 3 item supermarket purchase by automated delivery, which will be a far easier nut to crack than small parcel delivery.... and your on the way to solving the parcel issue. I cant see it myself.
Drones are a long way off for delivery, I agree. Rural areas would be the best starting point. We've really yet to start so not really something you could say is dead in the water.
Aug 1st 2016, 8:00 am
#62
snɐןɔ ʎʇıuɐs
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 6,558
Re: The world of automation
Everything changes after a while. The point I'm trying to make here is I think mass delivery by drones is a falsehood.
Best way I can give an example is for people to look at the check out queues at their local supermarket. Then see how many people check out with a very small amount of items. Imagine trying to deliver those by drone. The thing is the vast majority of parcels are small and individual items..... I just can't see drones making an impact on this market, which is by far the biggest part of the delivery market. Unless you've got a giant drone hovering with 300 items making deliveries on a ad hoc basis.
Drones are for special orders only IMO.
Best way I can give an example is for people to look at the check out queues at their local supermarket. Then see how many people check out with a very small amount of items. Imagine trying to deliver those by drone. The thing is the vast majority of parcels are small and individual items..... I just can't see drones making an impact on this market, which is by far the biggest part of the delivery market. Unless you've got a giant drone hovering with 300 items making deliveries on a ad hoc basis.
Drones are for special orders only IMO.
It's just a question of the finances. Even at minimum wage, you are talking $35k per year, plus the vehicle, plus fuel, plus HR costs, plus super, etc. - putting it over $50k easily. At even the most frantic parcel delivery rate, that makes it at least 50c per delivery, probably closer to $1-2 a shot.
In contrast you can fly a drone for less than $5k per year, and even at a slower delivery rate, the fact that there are longer hours, 7 days a week, means you can hit less than 50c per delivery, with all the other advantages too.
Then, of course, you have the reality that as business moves away from the likes of Auspost, the economies of scale will go away; and up will go the costs.
Unless someone can think of a system where this will work. I guess the automonous van with 2 or 3 drones in each van flying a short distance could be the go. How far away is that system though..... and will they use that system for those small quantity supermarket items as well. As far as I'm concerned it's exactly the same issue.....If anything the parcel market is more difficult as the end point.
Mass Drone deliveries are dead in the water as far as I'm concerned.... they'll take up less than 10 pct of the deliveries I reckon. We've talked and talked and talked this subject at work and the consensus is the future wishers are totally underestimating the indivdual small item volumes.
Solve the 3 item supermarket purchase by automated delivery, which will be a far easier nut to crack than small parcel delivery.... and your on the way to solving the parcel issue. I cant see it myself.
Solve the 3 item supermarket purchase by automated delivery, which will be a far easier nut to crack than small parcel delivery.... and your on the way to solving the parcel issue. I cant see it myself.
As for 'its far far future' - well they just got the go ahead for practical testing in the UK. My guess is you will be seeing significant numbers by 2020, and probably ubiquitous by 2025.
Aug 1st 2016, 11:56 am
#63
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Re: The world of automation
If I offered a free tax return service that guaranteed maximum return and only had advertising on my website as income, do you think I'd sign up many clients? My process would be entirely automated and proof of receipt or evidence would be accepted based on the customers acceptance that if they provide false info, they would be liable. Therefore, I could just have a process that claims rebates or declares incomes based on some very simple mouse clicks by the customer and effectively does the job of most of these bullshit tax companies such as H&R Block. Clients would also get to claim on the expense the following tax year. I believe that's going to happen soon. Making tax accountants redundant doesn't keep me awake at night. They can learn some software development and get with the times.
Aug 1st 2016, 12:03 pm
#64
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Joined: Dec 2010
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Re: The world of automation
If I offered a free tax return service that guaranteed maximum return and only had advertising on my website as income, do you think I'd sign up many clients? My process would be entirely automated and proof of receipt or evidence would be accepted based on the customers acceptance that if they provide false info, they would be liable. Therefore, I could just have a process that claims rebates or declares incomes based on some very simple mouse clicks by the customer and effectively does the job of most of these bullshit tax companies such as H&R Block. Clients would also get to claim on the expense the following tax year. I believe that's going to happen soon. Making tax accountants redundant doesn't keep me awake at night. They can learn some software development and get with the times.
https://www.ato.gov.au/Individuals/L.../Lodge-online/
https://www.etax.com.au/
Aug 1st 2016, 12:12 pm
#65
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Re: The world of automation
We may see some deployment by 2020 but it will take many more years until they become commonplace. High density cities are not ready and some will crash and hurt or kill people (every new moving technology does somewhere, sometime) - pushing back the timeframe
Last edited by Amazulu; Aug 1st 2016 at 1:50 pm.
Aug 1st 2016, 12:18 pm
#66
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Re: The world of automation
Aug 1st 2016, 1:04 pm
#67
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Re: The world of automation
People are underestimating the quantities when it comes to drone delivery, that's it in a nutshell.
We now have 5 vans per postcode delivering for Aus Post in inner Melbourne. When I was doing it pre 2001 it was 1 van. Times that by all the other courier companies. Each van carries around 230 parcels..... These vans are probably only moving along 7 houses at a time before they stop to deliver again.
That's a shed load of drones..... that's not counting the Postie delivered parcels.... which would have to be at least 2,000 per post code..... and that's today figures.... that will double in 5 years time.
It's a safety issue more than anything else that I'm seeing.
We now have 5 vans per postcode delivering for Aus Post in inner Melbourne. When I was doing it pre 2001 it was 1 van. Times that by all the other courier companies. Each van carries around 230 parcels..... These vans are probably only moving along 7 houses at a time before they stop to deliver again.
That's a shed load of drones..... that's not counting the Postie delivered parcels.... which would have to be at least 2,000 per post code..... and that's today figures.... that will double in 5 years time.
It's a safety issue more than anything else that I'm seeing.
Last edited by ozzieeagle; Aug 1st 2016 at 1:06 pm.
Aug 1st 2016, 1:52 pm
#68
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Re: The world of automation
People are underestimating the quantities when it comes to drone delivery, that's it in a nutshell.
We now have 5 vans per postcode delivering for Aus Post in inner Melbourne. When I was doing it pre 2001 it was 1 van. Times that by all the other courier companies. Each van carries around 230 parcels..... These vans are probably only moving along 7 houses at a time before they stop to deliver again.
That's a shed load of drones..... that's not counting the Postie delivered parcels.... which would have to be at least 2,000 per post code..... and that's today figures.... that will double in 5 years time.
It's a safety issue more than anything else that I'm seeing.
We now have 5 vans per postcode delivering for Aus Post in inner Melbourne. When I was doing it pre 2001 it was 1 van. Times that by all the other courier companies. Each van carries around 230 parcels..... These vans are probably only moving along 7 houses at a time before they stop to deliver again.
That's a shed load of drones..... that's not counting the Postie delivered parcels.... which would have to be at least 2,000 per post code..... and that's today figures.... that will double in 5 years time.
It's a safety issue more than anything else that I'm seeing.
Aug 1st 2016, 4:53 pm
#69
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Re: The world of automation
Sooner the ATO will realise that submitting at tax return for most people is a pointless, costly and unneeded exercise anyway.
Aug 1st 2016, 11:15 pm
#71
snɐןɔ ʎʇıuɐs
Joined: Nov 2006
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Re: The world of automation
People are underestimating the quantities when it comes to drone delivery, that's it in a nutshell.
We now have 5 vans per postcode delivering for Aus Post in inner Melbourne. When I was doing it pre 2001 it was 1 van. Times that by all the other courier companies. Each van carries around 230 parcels..... These vans are probably only moving along 7 houses at a time before they stop to deliver again.
We now have 5 vans per postcode delivering for Aus Post in inner Melbourne. When I was doing it pre 2001 it was 1 van. Times that by all the other courier companies. Each van carries around 230 parcels..... These vans are probably only moving along 7 houses at a time before they stop to deliver again.
That's ~3000 parcels per post code. Assuming 12 hour days (could be longer obviously), that's 250 per hour, or 4 per minute, 15 seconds between flights to clear the warehouse. At 30 mins trip time, that's 125 drones, costing ~$500k.
Throw in a tranche of double deliveries (most of those parcels are obviously small if the postie is carrying them) and we are down to 83 drones at ~$333k and roughly one every 22 seconds.
So the cost of the drones is going to be less than the cost of the warehouse, and the most congested spot (around the warehouse) is going to be relatively easy to manage with say 4 launch spots (the Nimitz can launch a real aircraft every 20 seconds).
Aug 2nd 2016, 2:47 am
#72
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Re: The world of automation
Not sure of that. If you say there are 60k houses in a postcode, then 1000 parcels would mean 1 in 60 houses get a delivery on average each day.
OK, for the hell of it, let's do those numbers. We'll also assume that there's only one parcel per flight (although they are already talking about more).
That's ~3000 parcels per post code. Assuming 12 hour days (could be longer obviously), that's 250 per hour, or 4 per minute, 15 seconds between flights to clear the warehouse. At 30 mins trip time, that's 125 drones, costing ~$500k.
Throw in a tranche of double deliveries (most of those parcels are obviously small if the postie is carrying them) and we are down to 83 drones at ~$333k and roughly one every 22 seconds.
So the cost of the drones is going to be less than the cost of the warehouse, and the most congested spot (around the warehouse) is going to be relatively easy to manage with say 4 launch spots (the Nimitz can launch a real aircraft every 20 seconds).
OK, for the hell of it, let's do those numbers. We'll also assume that there's only one parcel per flight (although they are already talking about more).
That's ~3000 parcels per post code. Assuming 12 hour days (could be longer obviously), that's 250 per hour, or 4 per minute, 15 seconds between flights to clear the warehouse. At 30 mins trip time, that's 125 drones, costing ~$500k.
Throw in a tranche of double deliveries (most of those parcels are obviously small if the postie is carrying them) and we are down to 83 drones at ~$333k and roughly one every 22 seconds.
So the cost of the drones is going to be less than the cost of the warehouse, and the most congested spot (around the warehouse) is going to be relatively easy to manage with say 4 launch spots (the Nimitz can launch a real aircraft every 20 seconds).
Plus the flight time from say Thomastown to Research in the east and Ascot Vale in the South West would be more than 30 mins.
I've not met one person, even the most technology friendly and pro advancement person that actually works in the industry that thinks mass delivery by drone is possible.
There are 321 postcodes in Melbourne. There are 3 current parcel centers.
Last edited by ozzieeagle; Aug 2nd 2016 at 2:50 am.
Aug 2nd 2016, 4:07 am
#73
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Re: The world of automation
Thomastown from where the parcels come now in the North services at least 30 postcodes.... so your figures need to be at least 90,000 parcels per day.... more like 120,000.
Plus the flight time from say Thomastown to Research in the east and Ascot Vale in the South West would be more than 30 mins.
I've not met one person, even the most technology friendly and pro advancement person that actually works in the industry that thinks mass delivery by drone is possible.
There are 321 postcodes in Melbourne. There are 3 current parcel centers.
Plus the flight time from say Thomastown to Research in the east and Ascot Vale in the South West would be more than 30 mins.
I've not met one person, even the most technology friendly and pro advancement person that actually works in the industry that thinks mass delivery by drone is possible.
There are 321 postcodes in Melbourne. There are 3 current parcel centers.
Not sure exactly how many postal addresses in Melbourne, but let's say 2 million homes. At 60k houses a base, that's 33 bases, spread across the area.
Can't find the total number of parcels into Melbourne per day, but let's say it was 60k, excluding the bulk parcel set that would go to businesses (probably by road). That fits in with the above number on drones etc. Something like 3000 drones in total.
Aug 2nd 2016, 5:55 am
#74
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Re: The world of automation
But it's very unlikely that anyone sanely taking on the task would have only 3 parcel centres. It would be much more spread out than that.
Not sure exactly how many postal addresses in Melbourne, but let's say 2 million homes. At 60k houses a base, that's 33 bases, spread across the area.
Can't find the total number of parcels into Melbourne per day, but let's say it was 60k, excluding the bulk parcel set that would go to businesses (probably by road). That fits in with the above number on drones etc. Something like 3000 drones in total.
Not sure exactly how many postal addresses in Melbourne, but let's say 2 million homes. At 60k houses a base, that's 33 bases, spread across the area.
Can't find the total number of parcels into Melbourne per day, but let's say it was 60k, excluding the bulk parcel set that would go to businesses (probably by road). That fits in with the above number on drones etc. Something like 3000 drones in total.
Going to have to spend a hell of a lot of money on machinery in 33 locations that can handle that stuff. I dont think there is a machine that can effectively sort these widely varied small items yet.
Last edited by ozzieeagle; Aug 2nd 2016 at 6:07 am.
Aug 2nd 2016, 10:28 am
#75
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Re: The world of automation
I don't see drone delivery being very popular anytime soon. Where are the darn things going to land? It's not like they'll set themselves down on your doorstep and leave a heavy package. Unsigned at that.
What about flight routes, etc.? Kids sabotaging the things all the time? Instead of playing Pokemon Go they'll go back to old school toys and try to down a drone...
Ultimately the biggest hit technology has done to traditional delivery is the fact that people don't write letters any more. They send emails. Even bills or banking statements come electronically nowadays. Same with books, though they are still holding up, with Kindle bound to gradually grow in terms of market share vs. pulp. As for music, movies or video games, haven't we already broken well past the 50% threshold of such "items" being delivered in electronic form vs physical media?
What's keeping delivery services going nowadays is the change in distribution methods, where people no longer head to local stores (or superstores) for all their clothing or electronic needs. In a way you could look at it differently: we have fewer but larger superstores (some in a global sense even), but those are far away, so we are seeing a return to... traditional mail-order shopping - just without the need to place an order via a postal form and with faster and cheaper shipping.
What about flight routes, etc.? Kids sabotaging the things all the time? Instead of playing Pokemon Go they'll go back to old school toys and try to down a drone...
Ultimately the biggest hit technology has done to traditional delivery is the fact that people don't write letters any more. They send emails. Even bills or banking statements come electronically nowadays. Same with books, though they are still holding up, with Kindle bound to gradually grow in terms of market share vs. pulp. As for music, movies or video games, haven't we already broken well past the 50% threshold of such "items" being delivered in electronic form vs physical media?
What's keeping delivery services going nowadays is the change in distribution methods, where people no longer head to local stores (or superstores) for all their clothing or electronic needs. In a way you could look at it differently: we have fewer but larger superstores (some in a global sense even), but those are far away, so we are seeing a return to... traditional mail-order shopping - just without the need to place an order via a postal form and with faster and cheaper shipping.