Wol

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...89&CMP=ema_632

I used to think that, with the exponential growth in the use of robotics and since large sections of the population are potentially going to be jobless for long periods, the UBI would be a good thing.

I think it's being trialled in a couple of countries at the moment.

However, on reflection the unintended consequences might be even more damaging overall than what we have at the moment.

Beoz

The Luddites have been preaching that rubbish for years. Easy to do when you don't know what the future is. You just need to take a look at history to see its rubbish.

https://techcrunch.com/2016/05/13/robots-wont-just-take-jobs-theyll-create-them/

As for UBI, a Guardian article has no respect for starters, but I lost interest pretty quickly when it started saying that UBI could be used for holidays.

We already have welfare for those who need it. We already have welfare for those who can't be bothered. We already have rewarded welfare for those who are prepared to take risks and add to the economy (eg negative gearing).

If we are to look at more welfare for more people, it really shouldn't be targetted at those who can't be bothered or would like a holiday without earning it.

Unless you really need it, welfare should be earned.

GarryP

A mincome could result in a golden age of man, where the majority of people have the capability to be all that they can be, with the fruits of automation being shared by all in what would be a socialist utopia.

And then you look at Trump, about to be inaugurated on a backward, regressive program of screwing the poor and giving to the rich, and elected by just the people who will suffer most from him, and who would benefit from a mincome.

And you realise, the idea of work-to-live, and biggest bastard takes all, is so engrained that we can't get there from here. Even though it's possible, it won't be allowed, and those most likely to stop it are exactly those who'll be put out of jobs, and whom will pine for those jobs like a slave that welcomes the certainty of the whip.

We'll see people dead in the gutter before we see mincome.

Wol

>>The Luddites have been preaching that rubbish for years. Easy to do when you don't know what the future is. You just need to take a look at history to see its rubbish.

https://techcrunch.com/2016/05/13/ro...l-create-them/
<<

I am aware that those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it - plus all the other quick riposts.

But arguing from historical facts isn't an argument at all: things DO change and the increasing use of robotics IS putting people who can't or won't adapt out of work all over the world although mainly in the West.

The lower paid / unskilled are going to revolt at some stage - it's already happening (Trump, Brexit) and ignoring what may happen isn't an option.

UBI stands a better chance of working in the Scandinavian countries, where people are used to high taxation paying for welfare, but whether the necessary tax hikes would run even there is anybody's guess.

Brings to mind the SF short story "The marching Morons"!

>>> From Wikipedia:

Plot summary[edit]

The human population is now 3,000,000 highbred elite and 5,000,000,000 morons, and the "average" IQ is 45 (whereas in the real world, an IQ score of 100 is average, or median, by definition). Several generations before the onset of the story, the small number of remaining 100-and-higher-IQ technocrats, ignored by the general public about the impending population problem, work feverishly to keep the morons alive.

The elite have had little success in solving the Problem (also called "Poprob", for 'population problem', in the story) for several reasons:

The morons must be managed or else there will be chaos, resulting in billions of deaths;
It is not possible to sterilize all of the morons;
Propaganda against large families is insufficient, because every biological drive is towards fertility (the story predates the development of hormonal contraception).
The elite had tried everything rational to solve the population problem, but the problem could not be solved rationally. The solution required a way of thinking that no longer existed – Barlow's "vicious self-interest" and knowledge of the distant history.

Barlow derives a solution based on his experience in scamming people into buying worthless land and knowledge of lemmings' mass migration into the sea: convince the morons to travel to Venus in spaceships that will kill their passengers out of view of land. (The story predates the moon landing, and the safety of space travel is summed up in a description of a rocket that crashed on the moon.) Propaganda depicts Venus as a tropical paradise, with "blanket trees", "ham bushes" and "soap roots". In a nationalistic frenzy, every country tries to send as many of their people to Venus as possible to stake their claim.

Barlow's help includes using his knowledge of Nazi propaganda tactics: postcards are sent from the supposedly happy new residents of Venus to relatives left behind, describing a wonderful, easy life, in the same way as fraudulent postcards were sent to relatives of those incinerated in the Nazi death-camps.

Barlow is cheated by his erstwhile assistants. Barlow does not realize that the elite despise him as they despise all people from the past for having not solved The Problem earlier. In the end, Barlow is placed on a spaceship and sent to share the fate of his victims.

Beoz

Nor is arguing with crystal ball antics.

What started with the industrial revolution still continues today. Call it robotics, call it technology, call it what you will. Nothing changes other than change itself. Its been happening for centuries.