GarryP

Interesting thing happening with the tortuous vote counting

Postal votes are indeed favouring the LNP - which is I assume is down to the grannies.

However absent votes are favouring the ALP. Those are where you vote out of your electorate on the day.

Where the number of postal votes is comparable to the number absent votes, the two tend to cancel out. Where there are more postal votes, things tend to slide towards LNP.

If you, say, have a net 10,000 towards postal votes, then that can end up being an excess of a number of hundreds towards the LNP, pulling down what is generally a number of hundreds towards the ALP towards parity, or beyond.

Beoz

Postal votes are also absentee votes. Those who are not going to be in their electorate on the day post their votes in advance.

GarryP

In AEC parlance they are different things, and they break different ways in the counting it seems.

Edit : For instance, let's take Cowen as an example.

There are 6,181 absent votes, 4221 of which remain to be counted.
There are 6,138 postal votes, 790 of which remain to be counted.
There are also 1,399 provisional and 3,134 pre-poll votes, most of which also await counting.

If those different categories denote different proportionate voting intentions (as they seem to) then they affect the result in different ways too (Cowen is down as a likely ALP win).

Somewhere like Forde is very different, with 3,850 absent ballots, and 11,668 postal. It's predicted to fall to the LNP.

In particular, it seems that those that voted early (postal, pre-poll) are more likely to favour the LNP - either through demographics, behaviour, or just because they didn't get the full hit of the revelations on LNP Medicare policy.

Which is interesting.

Beoz

Yes interesting. A electorate that didn't fall for the ALP BS...... well I never

moneypenny20

What?

Amazulu

Exactly - and what's wrong with grannies supporting the LNP anyway?

GarryP

Analysis I saw suggested that the elderly etc. made up a greater proportion of the postal/pre vote than is typical (hell the AEC goes round to nursing homes with mobile voting stations prior to the election). The grannies also seem to support the LNP in greater numbers than is typical, eg



Put the two together and the postal & pre votes tend to favour the LNP - as the LNP themselves say.

Beoz

Two Party preferred means jack.

When did 35-49 year olds become grannies?

Isn't it funny that as people get older they see the light.

moneypenny20

Where do the ages come from anyway? No one's ever asked me how old I am and who I voted for.

old.sparkles

You can sign up to do surveys. They don't pay much in the most part but do pay a little.

I've done surveys in the UK and here - IPSOS MORI in the UK, can't remember who here

moneypenny20

So they get their 'analysis' from a few random people after a couple of bob. Must be true then.

old.sparkles

The sample size was given in the post above - as an overall of postal / pre-polling I wouldn't know what the percentage is.

Whether or not someone gets paid for a survey doesn't necessarily reduce it's value - you get paid regardless of answer so why lie?

GarryP

It's a poll, like any other. Same error bars (actually with the sample size, it's probably more accurate than most polls).

That the elderly support conservative and right wing parties more that left wing is hardly contentious; be it the LNP, the Tories, the GOP - it's a commonly recognised trend. Average age of a Fox 'news' viewer is 68 at last count.

Same as Greens tend to be younger.