Amazulu

If that happens, everything will tank. There will be a global recession on a scale not seen since before WW2. What the exchange rate will be will be the least of your worries.....

The West will win but the cost - in people and wealth - will be biblical

the troubadour

The question is of course would America really go to war over Taiwan? It is a war it cannot win. The result most likely would be America pulling out of Asia over time. China and India developing their sphere's of influence over the region.

Amazulu

If it doesn't it effectively cedes control of the World to China

There will be a World policeman - we have no say in the matter. Once it was the Roman empire, then Spain, then Britain, now it's America. In the future it will be them or China - and it will only be China if America no longer wants the role. I know which one I prefer

Maybe the US can't win a war over Taiwan but it's not certain that the CCP can either. They cannot physically invade the place - they don't have the capability or the places to do it. The 35-odd nuclear attack subs of the US Pacific Fleet own the region - and the CCP knows this - and they have no real answer to them. Those subs, along with those of Japan (which has a very powerful navy), South Korea, India, us etc will close the maritime choke points like the Straits of Malacca in short order, the sea lanes to the East and West of the Philippines, the Timor sea. Without maritime trade of fuel, food and resources, China is gone within 90 days. If the CCP could take Taiwan, they would have done it already

the troubadour

America will simply not in a position to remain world policeman. I am far from a fan of China, quite to contrary , but the situation was allowed to develop over a very long time. China has always used the long term game. China put its economic advancement over its take over of Taiwan, I suspect. There was a hope that Taiwan would themselves at some stage throw in the towel and join the 'mother land ' as China advanced as a world power.

It should not be forgotten their supporters in The West, were very numerous and China was treated as a saviour of foreign economies. Australia led the cheer squad , even to the point of selling Darwin Port. WA's Premier continues to kow tow to the Chinese government who have far too much influence over this state. We can expect far more and a lot could be said already about that.
The point of conflict with China over Taiwan is if America when/if push came to shove that they would actually go to war over Taiwan? For one they, (the Americans) have not recognised Taiwan for many decades . One may conclude the logistics of war over Taiwan would favour China substantially. Would America, who may well win a war at the moment, but at great cost, and less certainty of doing so in the near future.? Ny view is it is unlikely America would actually go to war. Economic sanctions would hurt the world. Such a war would suck Australia in, making us coming out of it very badly on all fronts.

aries

We should not just consider military warfare. China is moving at speed with electronic technology, and I’m sure that if push comes to shove, North Korean and Russian computer experts would join them. Do not think in terms of a nerd sitting in his or her bedroom hacking away, but of large dedicated groups of experts with the best technology. Also, think of undersea cables being disrupted, plus satellites being damaged or destroyed.

themerlin

And don't forget it's ageing population, it can't really afford to loose countless young men/women.

the troubadour

I'm not sure with such a population of over a billion people that would be such an issue. Although it is unlikely to be a war where massive man power will be the deciding factor. China has rapidly advanced in sophisticated technical war fare. No doubt a lot initially learnt at American universities and the like and further developed.

themerlin

It's already a big issue, sending millions into a meat grinder would only make it worse.

Norm_uk

China doesn't need to invade Taiwan. It will continue to sit back and watch the West turn on itself while China profits from Western short-term thinking which is already costing the West its wealth and people. Millions of PRC citizens and their families live in the West as well and are a serious source of influence who would also be a serious source of active resistance if things ever kicked off.

Why would China need to use force to take what it will have in a generation or two with ease anyway? Their leaders don't worry about short-term public opinion and fall over themselves to appease the mob or their corporate sponsors. They won't sell off their nation to outside interests to turn a quick buck like we do.

In any case, what makes you think the West, which couldn't defeat the Taliban, and which thinks it needs vast numbers of outsiders to keep its nations functioning, is in any position to wage war on China, Russia and their allies?

The centres of power have already begun to shift. The West is a declining power. Western people should be asking themselves why the fruits of their labour are being squandered by their leaders over the years rather than thinking they have a shot of beating countries that are confident, self-assured and a lot more advanced than the Viet Cong or Taliban - whom the West was unable to defeat.

themerlin

What have the Viet Cong or Taliban got to do with anything, thats an insurgency not a conventional war, the gulf war might give a better insight into the wests dominance.

And power might be shifting a little, but what about India, they are also on the rise and a democracy at least.

Shard

Other than national pride, it's hard to understand why China would consider annexing Taiwan with military force.

brits1

If reports are halfway to being true both Russia and China and north Vietnam have also used biological “products” as well, I lost hope for china years ago when the students tried to speak out and the tanks rolled in and most countries just looked on, it’s also happening in HongKong, I use to applaud Australia for trying to sell “Aussie is best” for home made products the trouble though was China always made cheaper items, the future does not bright but hopefully common sense will avail.

scotty9000

TSMC - semiconductors would be a major reason, especially as the USA is currently taking steps to make it much more difficult for China to access advanced semi technology.

Shard

Yes, that's probably part of the equation, but I think China's designs on Taiwan run far deeper than economics. The semis are probably more a reason for the USA to protect Taiwan as a strategic partner, it needs the chips too.
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themerlin

I suspect if anything kicked off the skilled labour at semiconductors plants would be evacuated to the USA.