Amazulu

Postal votes - as per expectation - are trending towards the LNP

The ABC dude is the source to follow on this

Beoz

So on your calcs, we can get things through the lower house but not things through the senate ..... again.

Nothing changes.

And to fix, like this time, we keep having elections.

With a more experienced and lessoned learn LNP, next one should be a snatch.

GarryP

This page is a reasonable summary of potential scenarios : Election 2016: What is happening with the seats in doubt - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

Paradoxically, the best chance for a stable government is for Labor to win all the remaining seats AND get all the likely independent seats to sign up to a supply deal. The reason is they have more chance getting things through the senate, and the LNP would be in the course of pulling themselves apart.

However, it's looking most likely that neither side will get there and thus we'll be back for another go around before Christmas. Hence why that 16 odds looks good.

Oh, and if we do go for another go around, my guess is the LNP will do less well - particularly if it's in Nov say, and they have had a chance to go a'knifing.

knockoff nige

Isn't half the senate protected from another election until 6 years time? Going to another election won't solve anything. The LNP have their heads up their arses as they think the only reason they lost seats is because of the Mediscare issue and nothing to do with them having to say they will learn from their mistakes for the third time in their three years. Abbott, Hockey, Pine, Dutton and Turnbull have all had massive gaffes that the people are responding to. Go for another election this year, they'd be wiped out.

But the ALP in its current form isn't strong enough either. I'd rather they used their better position now in opposition to stand their ground on the corporate tax cuts and influence the senate to do the same. It could be the most pointless majority government in history.

GarryP

I'm not actually sure how the hell it would work, but the suggestion is the loony senate winners could be the ones to get the 3 year terms - which would cause it's own legal sh*tstorm if they were put up for reelection after 5 seconds.

I get the feeling the winner will be the one with the plan. Currently none of them have that vision thing - and that's what's hurting them.

Beoz

Actually, the LNP believe their campaign lessons learned were in the fact they didn't target and bitch about their opposition.

Senior government ministers, including deputy Liberal leader Julie Bishop, have conceded the government made some mistakes, and could have gone harder.

“We didn’t attack Bill Shorten and the unions in a way that we could have. We didn’t expose their record on border protection as we could have. And that was because we wanted to run a positive, optimistic campaign,” she said earlier this week.

I'd also add their economic record, their policy on NG and a few others in that mix.

Its a real shame but hey that's politics.

ozzieeagle

Well good luck with that

The Turnbull-Katter govt … with no union bashing | The New Daily

mulben

Labor can only improve if there is another election , second lowest primary vote on record after Gillards failure with the first hung Parliament. But that tosser Dan Andrews really crueled BS with his Union shite , hope he's had a right earful before stepping out of line again ( preferably he was removed completely )

Beoz

Do actually care about Australia as a whole or do you only care about what unions and provide you you you?

BadgeIsBack

I don't get Trade Unions.
I get they bargain for wages for, apparently, people who don't get to do it for themselves. I can live with that. Why do we need tossers like Shorten who then use them as a career, and shaft people in any case?

Did I say I didn't like Trade Unions - highly, highly suspect, God I wish I could be in a room with them when they try their bully boy tactics. It seems no one even thinks to get the cops involved. A tape recorder is all that is required..

Beoz

Shorten is scum. He's a career scumbag starting with unions and clearly evident today with his campaign agenda. He's not out for Australia. He's out for a small minority. The me me me's

Tanya Plibersek would be a far better choice for the ALP.

Beoz

Sorry. I meant to say Plibersek would be far better for Australia.

Shorten and his shitty, grubby tactics are better for the ALP. But of course the ALP are all about me me me and time and time again have demonstrated no idea how to work on the big picture .... for Australia.

GarryP

OK, well history lesson. Unions supported the creation of the Labour party because the factory owners were lobbying parliament to curtail the union movement, and any improvements in conditions. To that was added the ideology of the socialist movement, which obviously focused on 'power to the people', and the churches, which were disgusted by the conditions of Victorian manufacturing.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour...UK%29#Founding

Or in short, the conditions you enjoy were hard won.

Err, well, see, I've been in the rooms where the OTHER side in negotiations, the bosses, were planning and scheming, and unions are pussycats in comparison to the games and behaviours they showed. Legal requirements to consult were negated into timelines on an implementation chart.

I wasn't a member of a union for the longest time, because I saw the unions as hopelessly outmatched and unable to see even, the underhand tactics being used against them (and thus the staff). I joined one one I could see the personal benefit in something they could do for me.

If you wanted to look at getting cops involved, I know which side I would be arresting. If there's one thing the bosses side don't do, it's negotiate in good faith.

bcworld

Coalition finally take the lead!

National two party count
Liberal/National Coalition 5,195,320 50.00
Australian Labor Party 5,195,249 50.00

Over the last few days as more votes have been counted I've watched this go from ALP 50.25 to 50.00. Presumably the inflow of postals slows considerably as we go on. If you applied that swing to individual seats it would look like the Coalition might get to 75 but then there is a big jump before the next seat where Labor is leading falls back.

Beoz

Unions did have their place at one point in time and have a big hand in the conditions that are law today.

But that day has passed and running a country based on your union roots is no longer a benefit to all.

Of course that won't stop the me me me's