Beoz

So the poll was about Hillary (person) reflected the result, and the polls for Shorten (person) are looking pretty bad.

It doesn't look good then for the Labor party

bcworld

Well yeah, it was a presidential election.

So do you think the people who are delivering that 53/47 result in the Newspoll don't realise that Shorten is the Labor leader?

Beoz

Isn't it 52% to 48%?

I think the 45% to 31% Turnbull to Shorten is more telling. After all, most people don't vote for the actual content of the party, they vote for the front man/woman.

GarryP

ReachTel poll on the 22nd was 54%-46%

Shorten vs Trunbull was 47%-53%, though this was before Joyce resigned.

Beoz

NewsPoll had Shorten vs Turnbull 31% to 45% respectively on Feb 4th.

bcworld

And on Feb 18th they had 53/47 for Labor and 40/33 for Turnbull. These are the same people being polled. Both have fairly strongly negative readings. But the numbers are saying I'd prefer him, but I'm more likely to vote for them.

GarryP

Difference is the ReachTel poll forces the choice to be between Shorten and Trunbull. The Newspoll version allows other options. If you are looking for a 'presidential' type poll number the first approach is preferable.

What it basically means is that a number of people would prefer some other candidate, but if pushed they would pick Shorten over Trunbull. Given one is actually PM and the other not, it's basically a dead heat in popularity terms.

Beoz

Just like on voting day.

I think we have a "todays" winner.

GarryP

Nope.

For a presidential type race the Democrats and repubs don't allow multiple multiple candidates - instead it's whittled down to two. And Australia would have a STV approach anyway, so nothing but the last two count.

As I say, they are basically neck and neck - which shouldn't be surprising since the parties are also pretty much neck and neck. And actually THAT is the most surprising thing.

Beoz

I think you were right the first time. The Newspoll is Turnbull, Shorten and Other. That's exactly how people vote on election day. How the votes are passed to form a government is irrelevant. Average Joe who votes for Hanson doesn't know where their votes are passed too.

GarryP

Nope. On election day they vote by party, as we know. This is a theoretical presidential type race - if we were unwise enough to do such a thing.

Your case would be equivalent to having Shorten, Trunbull, Plibersek, Albo, Abbott, Dutton, etc. all standing. Which is not what happens, both because parties pick single candidates, and because STV moves votes for loonies like Hanson to the main candidates.

Put it this way, if Shorten is on 31% and Trunbull on 45%, that leaves 24% that in an realistic presidential type race would end up with one or the other - which is what the ReachTel has with them neck and neck. And what that means is they might not love the idea of Shorten, but when compared to Trunbull, they will take him.

Beoz

People vote by party, agree, but there many parties, not just two. Which is why Newspoll would be given a more accurate picture of the preferred PM.

Given the recent Barnaby thing, which is going to greatly put women off side, todays latest ReachTel poll has actually been good for the LNP.

The LNP are not really good at dishing the dirt like the ALP are, but if they found their straps and decided to keep things like Mediscare, Union corruption, and David Feeney on the table, and in the press like the ALP are good at doing, its game over. The Libs really need a bitch, like the ALP really need Plibersek

bcworld

But not an accurate picture of the 2PP...right.

Beoz

2PP or PPM. Where do most vote? I would say many vote for the front man, wouldn't you?

the troubadour

Your over the top bias glaringly obvious as usual. While Shorten, will be few people's favourite to become PM, he is hardly a scumbag. The Lib's have been more than able to self destruct themselves without ALP help, with some appalling policy over recent years. Their complete and utter contempt hasn't, I'm glad to say gone un noticed.