Would you transfer your £'s to A$...
Mar 16th 2010, 12:11 pm
#46
Forum Regular
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 252
Re: Would you transfer your £'s to A$...
LOT of variables here. HSBC currency strategist said in recent article that AUD looks very strong (Chinese demand for commodities) and could reach parity with dollar by end-2010 (currently 1US=1.09AUD), and GBP-AUD rate of 1.5 or less in same time frame.
Hung parliament and/or more bad news about UK debt will drive it lower; clear outcome of election and/or UK economic rebound would drive GBP higher.
Having spent 7 years in the US, and now moving to Aus (from the UK), my approach is to move small amounts progressively, that way you hedge risk. Any time I see the GBP go near 1.7 I move; any time USD moves above 1.1, I move. If it looks like it might start to rally (like before or after interest rate decisions), I will hold off a few days then move a big chunk.
I would not wait for the GBP to hit 1.8 or 2 or anything else, because it could conceivably take a very long time. It could also go the other way and hit 1.4 or 1.3 first. If you can afford to wait 5-10 years, fine. Otherwise, you got to forget that "it used to be 2.3" and start dealing with the reality of what it IS.
Hung parliament and/or more bad news about UK debt will drive it lower; clear outcome of election and/or UK economic rebound would drive GBP higher.
Having spent 7 years in the US, and now moving to Aus (from the UK), my approach is to move small amounts progressively, that way you hedge risk. Any time I see the GBP go near 1.7 I move; any time USD moves above 1.1, I move. If it looks like it might start to rally (like before or after interest rate decisions), I will hold off a few days then move a big chunk.
I would not wait for the GBP to hit 1.8 or 2 or anything else, because it could conceivably take a very long time. It could also go the other way and hit 1.4 or 1.3 first. If you can afford to wait 5-10 years, fine. Otherwise, you got to forget that "it used to be 2.3" and start dealing with the reality of what it IS.
Mar 16th 2010, 12:20 pm
#47
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Feb 2008
Location: Hope Island, Gold Coast
Posts: 1,920
Re: Would you transfer your £'s to A$...
LOT of variables here. HSBC currency strategist said in recent article that AUD looks very strong (Chinese demand for commodities) and could reach parity with dollar by end-2010 (currently 1US=1.09AUD), and GBP-AUD rate of 1.5 or less in same time frame.
Hung parliament and/or more bad news about UK debt will drive it lower; clear outcome of election and/or UK economic rebound would drive GBP higher.
Having spent 7 years in the US, and now moving to Aus (from the UK), my approach is to move small amounts progressively, that way you hedge risk. Any time I see the GBP go near 1.7 I move; any time USD moves above 1.1, I move. If it looks like it might start to rally (like before or after interest rate decisions), I will hold off a few days then move a big chunk.
I would not wait for the GBP to hit 1.8 or 2 or anything else, because it could conceivably take a very long time. It could also go the other way and hit 1.4 or 1.3 first. If you can afford to wait 5-10 years, fine. Otherwise, you got to forget that "it used to be 2.3" and start dealing with the reality of what it IS.
Hung parliament and/or more bad news about UK debt will drive it lower; clear outcome of election and/or UK economic rebound would drive GBP higher.
Having spent 7 years in the US, and now moving to Aus (from the UK), my approach is to move small amounts progressively, that way you hedge risk. Any time I see the GBP go near 1.7 I move; any time USD moves above 1.1, I move. If it looks like it might start to rally (like before or after interest rate decisions), I will hold off a few days then move a big chunk.
I would not wait for the GBP to hit 1.8 or 2 or anything else, because it could conceivably take a very long time. It could also go the other way and hit 1.4 or 1.3 first. If you can afford to wait 5-10 years, fine. Otherwise, you got to forget that "it used to be 2.3" and start dealing with the reality of what it IS.
Mar 16th 2010, 1:48 pm
#49
Forum Regular
Joined: Apr 2009
Posts: 252
Re: Would you transfer your £'s to A$...
If you got into gold at the right time you wouldnt need to worry too much about the details of exchange rates :-)
Generally there are very few analysts out there predicting strong GBP... all of the predictions I've seen seem to be on the downside... that said, experts have been known to get it wrong before :-)
In the same FT article, the HSBC guy described the AUD as his "favourite G10 currency right now". With Chinese demand for commodities only likely to rise, you can see why.
Generally there are very few analysts out there predicting strong GBP... all of the predictions I've seen seem to be on the downside... that said, experts have been known to get it wrong before :-)
In the same FT article, the HSBC guy described the AUD as his "favourite G10 currency right now". With Chinese demand for commodities only likely to rise, you can see why.
Mar 16th 2010, 1:52 pm
#50
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Feb 2008
Location: Hope Island, Gold Coast
Posts: 1,920
Re: Would you transfer your £'s to A$...
I'm still buying gradually.Interestingly Gold hasn't been doing too well in AUD, but way better than the pound, of course that could change.
There are some signs that China may be overheating, and that seems the only short-term scenario which I can see damaging the AUD.
Last edited by freebo; Mar 16th 2010 at 1:56 pm.
Mar 16th 2010, 2:30 pm
#51
Forum Regular
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 144
Re: Would you transfer your £'s to A$...
Was looking through the paperwork I picked up from an Emigrate show 2 years ago. A forex trading company who will go unnamed said "given the recent fall of the pound to 2.2 from 2.5 AUD we recommend a wait and see strategy for any funds that are not needed short term, until such time as the exchange rate improves."
Someone has been waiting a long time!
Someone has been waiting a long time!
Mar 16th 2010, 8:31 pm
#52
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Jan 2009
Location: Brisbane
Posts: 20,821
Re: Would you transfer your £'s to A$...
Was looking through the paperwork I picked up from an Emigrate show 2 years ago. A forex trading company who will go unnamed said "given the recent fall of the pound to 2.2 from 2.5 AUD we recommend a wait and see strategy for any funds that are not needed short term, until such time as the exchange rate improves."
Someone has been waiting a long time!
Someone has been waiting a long time!
